Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt31.00 (previously Bt42.20).</li><li>The new fair value reflects: i) downward revisions of the 2024-27E earnings forecasts; and ii) an increase in the required return to 9.4% (from 8.8%) following adjustments to the macroeconomic assumptions — the Rf and MRP were revised to 2.07% and 5.58%, respectively (from 2.27% and 4.43%).</li><li>The company’s long-term growth outlook remains below the industry average, with modest loan portfolio expansion. Net profit is expected to contract by 7.4% in 2025E before recovering at a 7.8% CAGR during 2026- 2027E.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt31.00 (previously Bt42.20).The new fair value reflects: i) downward revisions of the 2024-27E earnings forecasts; and ii) an increase in the required return to 9.4% (from 8.8%) following adjustments to the macroeconomic assumptions — the Rf and MRP were revised to 2.07% and 5.58%, respectively (from 2.27% and 4.43%).The company’s long-term growth outlook remains below the industry average, with modest loan portfolio expansion. Net profit is expected to contract by 7.4% in 2025E before recovering at a 7.8% CAGR during 2026- 2027E.

Srisawad Corporation - Cautious Lending and Strengthened Balance Sheet to Brace for Uncertainty

<ul><li>We are in the process of reviewing our rating and revisiting the earnings forecasts following weaker- than-expected 1Q25 profit, which accounted for only 20% of our full-year 2025E estimate.</li><li>The decline was pressured by a shrinking loan portfolio and a narrowing interest spread.</li><li>SAWAD reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt1.1bn (-12.8% YoY, -10.2% QoQ), which was 8% below market expectations.</li></ul>

We are in the process of reviewing our rating and revisiting the earnings forecasts following weaker- than-expected 1Q25 profit, which accounted for only 20% of our full-year 2025E estimate.The decline was pressured by a shrinking loan portfolio and a narrowing interest spread.SAWAD reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt1.1bn (-12.8% YoY, -10.2% QoQ), which was 8% below market expectations.

Srisawad Corporation - Weak Earnings Both YoY and QoQ

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt42.25 (previously Bt42.75) after revising the profit estimates, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 8.8%.</li><li>SAWAD remains fundamentally attractive, with its share price implying 22% upside potential to the fair value of Bt42.20..</li><li>The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt42.25 (previously Bt42.75) after revising the profit estimates, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 8.8%.SAWAD remains fundamentally attractive, with its share price implying 22% upside potential to the fair value of Bt42.20..The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning. 

Srisawad Corporation - To Resume Loan Growth in 2025E

<ul><li>We maintain an Neutral rating and the 12M fair value at Bt42.75, based on the earnings yield with a required return of 8.8%.</li><li>4Q24 profit retreated (-3.3% YoY, -5.9% QoQ) due to a shrinking loan portfolio and narrowing interest margin, while asset quality continued to improve.</li><li>As the loan portfolio contracted more than expected, there is downside risk to our 2025-26E profit forecasts.</li></ul>

We maintain an Neutral rating and the 12M fair value at Bt42.75, based on the earnings yield with a required return of 8.8%.4Q24 profit retreated (-3.3% YoY, -5.9% QoQ) due to a shrinking loan portfolio and narrowing interest margin, while asset quality continued to improve.As the loan portfolio contracted more than expected, there is downside risk to our 2025-26E profit forecasts.

Srisawad Corporation - Reserves and Repossession Losses Decreased, but Loans Contracted

<ul><li>We maintain our Outperform rating. The latest stock price is approximately 7% below the new fair value (FV) of Bt40.25.</li><li>In addition, from a tactical perspective, the downside risk is very limited, as the difference between the stock price and the FV over the past six months is below -1.5 S.D.</li><li>The new FV of Bt40.25 is reduced from the previous Bt40.50, a decrease of about 1%. </li></ul>

We maintain our Outperform rating. The latest stock price is approximately 7% below the new fair value (FV) of Bt40.25.In addition, from a tactical perspective, the downside risk is very limited, as the difference between the stock price and the FV over the past six months is below -1.5 S.D.The new FV of Bt40.25 is reduced from the previous Bt40.50, a decrease of about 1%. 

Srisawad Corporation - Loan Growth to Slow Down

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)

Srisawad Corporation - Cautious Lending and Strengthened Balance Sheet to Brace for Uncertainty

On the technical side, the downside risk appears limited after the stock price dropped sharply by around 18% following the disappointing 1Q25 results.

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation - Weak Earnings Both YoY and QoQ

We are in the process of reviewing our rating and revisiting the earnings forecasts following weaker- than-expected 1Q25 profit, which accounted...

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation - To Resume Loan Growth in 2025E

The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning....

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation - Reserves and Repossession Losses Decreased, but Loans Contracted

We maintain an Neutral rating and the 12M fair value at Bt42.75, based on the earnings yield with a required return of 8.8%. 4Q24 profit retreated...

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation - Loan Growth to Slow Down

In addition, from a tactical perspective, the downside risk is very limited, as the difference between the stock price and the FV over the past six...

Krungthai XSpring

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