Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt31.00 (previously Bt42.20).</li><li>The new fair value reflects: i) downward revisions of the 2024-27E earnings forecasts; and ii) an increase in the required return to 9.4% (from 8.8%) following adjustments to the macroeconomic assumptions — the Rf and MRP were revised to 2.07% and 5.58%, respectively (from 2.27% and 4.43%).</li><li>The company’s long-term growth outlook remains below the industry average, with modest loan portfolio expansion. Net profit is expected to contract by 7.4% in 2025E before recovering at a 7.8% CAGR during 2026- 2027E.</li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (FV) of Bt31.00 (previously Bt42.20).The new fair value reflects: i) downward revisions of the 2024-27E earnings forecasts; and ii) an increase in the required return to 9.4% (from 8.8%) following adjustments to the macroeconomic assumptions — the Rf and MRP were revised to 2.07% and 5.58%, respectively (from 2.27% and 4.43%).The company’s long-term growth outlook remains below the industry average, with modest loan portfolio expansion. Net profit is expected to contract by 7.4% in 2025E before recovering at a 7.8% CAGR during 2026- 2027E.

Srisawad Corporation - Cautious Lending and Strengthened Balance Sheet to Brace for Uncertainty

<ul><li>We are in the process of reviewing our rating and revisiting the earnings forecasts following weaker- than-expected 1Q25 profit, which accounted for only 20% of our full-year 2025E estimate.</li><li>The decline was pressured by a shrinking loan portfolio and a narrowing interest spread.</li><li>SAWAD reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt1.1bn (-12.8% YoY, -10.2% QoQ), which was 8% below market expectations.</li></ul>

We are in the process of reviewing our rating and revisiting the earnings forecasts following weaker- than-expected 1Q25 profit, which accounted for only 20% of our full-year 2025E estimate.The decline was pressured by a shrinking loan portfolio and a narrowing interest spread.SAWAD reported a 1Q25 net profit of Bt1.1bn (-12.8% YoY, -10.2% QoQ), which was 8% below market expectations.

Srisawad Corporation - Weak Earnings Both YoY and QoQ

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 30 June.</li>
<li>Capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.</li>
</ul>


In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.
Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.


SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jun 13th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in TMBThanachart Bank, Bangkok Dusit.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Jun 13th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in TMBThanachart Bank, Bangkok Dusit.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): TMBThanachart Bank, Bangkok Dusit

<ul><li>We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt42.25 (previously Bt42.75) after revising the profit estimates, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 8.8%.</li><li>SAWAD remains fundamentally attractive, with its share price implying 22% upside potential to the fair value of Bt42.20..</li><li>The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning. </li></ul>

We maintain a Neutral rating with a new 12-month fair value (12M FV) of Bt42.25 (previously Bt42.75) after revising the profit estimates, based on the earnings yield method with a required return of 8.8%.SAWAD remains fundamentally attractive, with its share price implying 22% upside potential to the fair value of Bt42.20..The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning. 

Srisawad Corporation - To Resume Loan Growth in 2025E

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)

Srisawad Corporation - Cautious Lending and Strengthened Balance Sheet to Brace for Uncertainty

On the technical side, the downside risk appears limited after the stock price dropped sharply by around 18% following the disappointing 1Q25 results.

Krungthai XSpring

Srisawad Corporation - Weak Earnings Both YoY and QoQ

We are in the process of reviewing our rating and revisiting the earnings forecasts following weaker- than-expected 1Q25 profit, which accounted...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

There are 4 changes, plus DELTA capping. Impact on the adds is bigger and positioning appears smaller. The deletes are down a lot and there could...

Brian Freitas

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Jun 13th): TMBThanachart Bank, Bangkok Dusit

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in TMBThanachart Bank, Bangkok Dusit.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Srisawad Corporation - To Resume Loan Growth in 2025E

The long-term growth is weaker compared to the industry, with profit expected to recover at a 10% CAGR in 2025-27E, driven by lower provisioning....

Krungthai XSpring

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