Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There were a bunch of indices where the review period ended last week. The changes will be announced this month and implemented in December.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emerald-resources-nl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17495:1" rel="noopener">Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU)</a> replaced <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/invocare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9044:1" rel="noopener">Invocare Ltd (IVC AU)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There were large outflows from mainland China listed ETFs during the week. Outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:438:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US)</a> continued for another week.</li>
</ul>


There were a bunch of indices where the review period ended last week. The changes will be announced this month and implemented in December.

Emerald Resources Nl (EMR AU) replaced Invocare Ltd (IVC AU) in the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close on Friday.
There were large outflows from mainland China listed ETFs during the week. Outflows from iShares Emerging Markets (EEM US) continued for another week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand's SET50 index rebalance in December 2023.</li>
<li>I currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the SET50 index but if prices fluctuate significantly in the next month or so there could be more changes.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for Thailand's SET50 index rebalance in December 2023.
I currently see two ADDs and two DELs for the SET50 index but if prices fluctuate significantly in the next month or so there could be more changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Likely; DELTA DEL Unlikely

<ul>
<li>The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> on Friday.</li>
<li>The review period for the December rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index</a> and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.</li>
<li>Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.</li>
</ul>


The coming week has the rebalance implementation for the NIFTY family of indices on Thursday and the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) on Friday.
The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng TECH Index and the HSCI Index ends on Friday.
Inflows to mainland China ETFs resumed following a pause as markets continue to trade weak.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

<ul>
<li>There could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-tail-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36428:1" rel="noopener">I-TAIL (ITC TB)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/srisawad-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9480:1" rel="noopener">Srisawad Power (SAWAD TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ngern-tid-lor-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31103:1" rel="noopener">Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)</a>. </li>
<li>With no further inclusions on the Market Surveillance Measure list, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thai-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB)</a> should be safe at the December rebalance.</li>
<li>There are a couple of stocks that are close to passing/failing the liquidity tests and that could result in further changes to the index.</li>
</ul>


There could be two changes for the SET50 INDEX with JMT Network Services (JMT TB) and I-TAIL (ITC TB) replacing Srisawad Power (SAWAD TB) and Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB). 
With no further inclusions on the Market Surveillance Measure list, Delta Electronics Thai (DELTA TB) should be safe at the December rebalance.
There are a couple of stocks that are close to passing/failing the liquidity tests and that could result in further changes to the index.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in December

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect Thai inflation to continue easing from May to August, driven down by the high base effect and lower oil prices.</li><li>The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.</li><li>We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.00% in the meeting on May 31, 2023, which should be the last rate hike in this upcycle. </li></ul>

We expect Thai inflation to continue easing from May to August, driven down by the high base effect and lower oil prices.The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.We expect the MPC to continue raising the policy interest rate by 25 bps to 2.00% in the meeting on May 31, 2023, which should be the last rate hike in this upcycle. 

Special Report: Inflation Remains on a Downtrend

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NEXT50, SET50, L&F, Onewo, Celltrion, AMFI

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Dec 23: 2 ADDs/DELs Likely; DELTA DEL Unlikely

JMT and KCE are expected ADDs while TIDLOR and SAWAD are expected DELs for the SET50 index rebalance in December 2023. I continue to believe DELTA...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCI, ASX, SET50, Wharf, SK Tel, Tata Motors, Midea, PCOMP

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in December

There could be 2 changes for the SET50 in Dec. With a couple of stocks close to liquidity thresholds, there could be more changes. DELTA should be...

Brian Freitas

Special Report: Inflation Remains on a Downtrend

The Ministry of Commerce (MoC) anticipates 2023E inflation at a mean of +2.2% YoY (range of 1.7-2.7%), slowing considerably from +6.1% YoY in 2022.

Krungthai XSpring

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