Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy call, with a new fair value of Bt46.07. Our valuation metrics suggest strengths in all dimensions, including the long-term growth prospects (with expected EPS growth at a 14% CAGR in 2024-26E), alongside limited tactical downside risks.</li><li>SAWAD’s 1Q24E net profit is expected at Bt1,315mn (+9.5% YoY and +3.8% QoQ).</li><li>Loans are expected to have grown 48.9% YoY from the low base in 1Q23 when the financial statement of Fast Money was not consolidated.</li></ul>

We maintain a Buy call, with a new fair value of Bt46.07. Our valuation metrics suggest strengths in all dimensions, including the long-term growth prospects (with expected EPS growth at a 14% CAGR in 2024-26E), alongside limited tactical downside risks.SAWAD’s 1Q24E net profit is expected at Bt1,315mn (+9.5% YoY and +3.8% QoQ).Loans are expected to have grown 48.9% YoY from the low base in 1Q23 when the financial statement of Fast Money was not consolidated.

Srisawad Corporation -1Q24E Core Profit to Have Grown Slightly YoY and QoQ

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> universe.</li>
<li>The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/berli-jucker-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3685:1" rel="noopener">Berli Jucker (BJC TB)</a> is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) universe.
The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.

Berli Jucker (BJC TB) is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410/1,416 points.</li><li>For the overall picture, the index is still in an uptrend pattern, testing the upchannel resistance at around 1,348-1,432 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index is beginning to show signs of a correction after rising sharply by nearly 40 points in the previous three trading days.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410/1,416 points.For the overall picture, the index is still in an uptrend pattern, testing the upchannel resistance at around 1,348-1,432 points.In the short term, the index is beginning to show signs of a correction after rising sharply by nearly 40 points in the previous three trading days.

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.</li>
</ul>


The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET during the index rebal event in June 2024.
With roughly half of the 3-month reference period now complete, I see three changes for the SET 50 index but one of those names is still close to the border.


Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up, with the resistance at 1,405/1,416 points and the support at 1,395/1,390 points (75-day EMA).</li><li>As for the overall picture, there is a positive signal after the index broke out from the resistance of the downchannel trend at 1,330-1,395 points on higher volume.</li><li>This should support upward movement to test the previous resistance at 1,416 and 1,435 points, respectively.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up, with the resistance at 1,405/1,416 points and the support at 1,395/1,390 points (75-day EMA).As for the overall picture, there is a positive signal after the index broke out from the resistance of the downchannel trend at 1,330-1,395 points on higher volume.This should support upward movement to test the previous resistance at 1,416 and 1,435 points, respectively.

Thailand

Srisawad Corporation Public Company Limited operates as a consumer finance company. The Company provides personal secured loans, home loans, loans for international labors, and other related financial products. Srisawad offers its products and services to retail clients in Thailand.

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Srisawad Power 1979 (SAWAD TB)

Srisawad Corporation -1Q24E Core Profit to Have Grown Slightly YoY and QoQ

We maintain a Buy call, with a new fair value of Bt46.07. Our valuation metrics suggest strengths in all dimensions, including the long-term growth...

Krungthai XSpring

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June

The market consultation proposes adjustments to the minimum thresholds for trading value and turnover ratio. That should result in 4 constituent...

Brian Freitas

KTX Zoom - APRIL 17, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun 24: 3 Changes Likely; Banpu Still Not Safe from Deletion

Srisawad is currently an expected DEL. However, the gap between 51st-ranked Srisawad and 50th-ranked Banpu is very small and it is still possible...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

KTX Zoom - APRIL 10, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move up, with the resistance at 1,405/1,416 points and the support at 1,395/1,390 points (75-day EMA).

Krungthai XSpring

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