Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.</li>
<li>We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.</li>
<li>With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).</li>
</ul>


We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction.
We still believe a bottoming process would likely take weeks or potentially months and could come with more tests of the lows -- or even an undercut.
With that said, we continue to see attractive and actionable setups, primarily within cyclical value (Energy, Materials, Manufacturing, Transportation, and Financials).


Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

<ul>
<li>Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.</li>
<li>We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.</li>
<li>Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.</li>
</ul>


Global equity indexes have staged impressive rallies from oversold levels, and certain hard-hit areas in Europe (STOXX600 Technology, Industrial Goods &amp; Services, and Chemicals Sectors) display bullish short-term price reversals.
We view this as a potential signal that the lows may have been established for this correction, but we need to see more upside follow-through.
Regardless, we want to stick with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically attractive throughout this pullback, not on areas that are just now spiking from oversold levels within downtrends.


Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.</li>
<li>Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.</li>
</ul>


June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.
Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.
Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving price and RS trends for these risk-on areas of the market are among the many characteristics consistent with historical bull markets. Therefore, we continue to label this a bull market and we believe global equities are still in the early innings of a broad-based advance. Commodity Sectors make up a majority of our EM-focused recommendations in this report.

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Sweden

SSAB AB manufactures sheet and plate steel.  The Company's main products include hot-rolled, cold-rolled and organic-coated steel sheet.  SSAB sells its products to the automotive, engineering, and construction industries.

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SSAB AB (SSABA SS)

Encouraging Signs, But Concerns Still Outweigh; Buying Materials, Energy, Industrials, Health Care

We continue to see some encouraging signs that suggest that the lows may have been established for this correction. Still, cyclical value remains...

Vermilion Research

Value Remains Leadership; Actionable Ideas: Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials

We are sticking with Sectors and stocks that have remained technically sound throughout this correction, not on areas that are just now spiking...

Vermilion Research

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China. Key support violations include the MSCI EM index below $52, the Shanghai Comp below 3500,...

Vermilion Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

June brought renewed divergence across European ord/pref pairs. Structural outliers widened, convergence became more selective, and implementation...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

EM Remains In Favor; Shanghai Comp Breaking Out

Geopolitical concerns aside, a weakening US dollar (DXY) continues to be a major tailwind for both EM equities and the commodity Sectors. Improving...

Vermilion Research

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