Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.</li>
<li>There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
The review period ends tomorrow, so most changes are high probability. Though there are some changes that will be up to the discretion of the index committee.
There will be a lot of stock to trade on the changes to the ASX200 and indices higher up the hierarchy. But there will be a lot of pre-positioning too.


S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

<ul>
<li>Busy week in India with the adhoc changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank</a> due to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank</a> merger.</li>
<li>The IDX could announce the changes to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices in the coming week, though there is no firm schedule for announcements.</li>
<li>Yet another week of inflows to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK)</a> ETF and outflows from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Busy week in India with the adhoc changes to the NIFTY, NSE Nifty Next 50, S&amp;P BSE SENSEX and Nifty Bank due to the HDFC Limited and HDFC Bank merger.
The IDX could announce the changes to the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices in the coming week, though there is no firm schedule for announcements.
Yet another week of inflows to the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) ETF and outflows from the Hang Seng H Share Index ETF (2828 HK). 


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, Chinext, URA, Korea Stocks, NKY

<ul>
<li>We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a> and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.</li>
<li>Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.</li>
</ul>


We forecast 22 changes across the ASX50 Index, ASX100 Index, S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and ASX300 Index at the September rebalance.
Some of the changes are high probability while others are close to cutoffs. The impact of passive trading will be pretty large on a lot of stocks.
Short interest on the potential deletes indicates some pre-positioning but there should still be a fair bit more to do.


S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Expect some upset on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>'s Offer, the possibility of some activism, but it all plays out in the back end. Not the front end.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a> is doing a large equity offering to get the monkey off its back with regard to over-leverage, near-term debt refinancing, and WC for Rakuten Mobile.</li>
<li>Fund manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-everbright-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:167:1" rel="noopener">China Everbright (165 HK)</a>'s implied stub and simple ratio (CEL / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/everbright-securitie-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15343:1" rel="noopener">Everbright Securities Co (A) (601788 CH)</a>) are at multi-year lows.</li>
</ul>


Expect some upset on SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)'s Offer, the possibility of some activism, but it all plays out in the back end. Not the front end.

Rakuten (4755 JP) is doing a large equity offering to get the monkey off its back with regard to over-leverage, near-term debt refinancing, and WC for Rakuten Mobile.
Fund manager China Everbright (165 HK)'s implied stub and simple ratio (CEL / Everbright Securities Co (A) (601788 CH)) are at multi-year lows.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, China Everbright, Rakuten, Sony Corp

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Golden Energy and Resources / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IFA has concluded that the Widjaja family’s offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-fiber-system-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20826:1" rel="noopener">Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP)</a> is fair and reasonable. The EGM will be held on 9 June. </li>
<li>The IFA has justified its conclusion based on a convoluted methodology that has serious flaws. A fairer SOTP valuation is 37% higher than the IFA’s SOTP valuation range.</li>
<li>Notably, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dian-swastatika-sentosa-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15281:1" rel="noopener">Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ)</a> will abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the offeror is yet to declare the offer final. </li>
</ul>


The IFA has concluded that the Widjaja family’s offer for Golden Energy &amp; Resources (GER SP) is fair and reasonable. The EGM will be held on 9 June. 
The IFA has justified its conclusion based on a convoluted methodology that has serious flaws. A fairer SOTP valuation is 37% higher than the IFA’s SOTP valuation range.
Notably, Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA IJ) will abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the offeror is yet to declare the offer final. 


Golden Energy (GER SP): Minorities Should Hold Firm at the EGM on June 9

Australia

St. Barbara Limited is a gold exploration and production company.  The Company's exploration projects include its Southern Cross and Leonora Operations which are located in Western Australia.

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St Barbara Ltd (SBM AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50, ASX100, ASX 200 and ASX300 indices at the September rebalance. There is big flow and impact on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, Chinext, URA, Korea Stocks, NKY

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

There could be around 22 changes for the SnP/ASX family of indices in September. The impact of passive trading will be high on a lot of stocks and...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, China Everbright, Rakuten, Sony Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Golden Energy (GER SP): Minorities Should Hold Firm at the EGM on June 9

Minorities are in a strong position as DSS is required to abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the...

Arun George

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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S&P/​​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

We forecast 26 changes across the ASX50, ASX100, ASX 200 and ASX300 indices at the September rebalance. There is big flow and impact on a lot of...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: ASX, Chinext, URA, Korea Stocks, NKY

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P/​​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September

There could be around 22 changes for the SnP/ASX family of indices in September. The impact of passive trading will be high on a lot of stocks and...

Brian Freitas

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinsei Bank, China Everbright, Rakuten, Sony Corp

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Golden Energy (GER SP): Minorities Should Hold Firm at the EGM on June 9

Minorities are in a strong position as DSS is required to abstain from voting on both resolutions. While the prospect of a bump is diminishing, the...

Arun George

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Have Outperformed

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes in September