Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>What matters with HSBC results is really not the bottom line, the management view or the constant currency comparatives, but rather the view on specific regions. </li>
<li>Still there is concern HSBC has not yet realized losses on BoCom, it is not marked to market; there will be an impairment of USD1.2-1.6bn from dilution</li>
<li>HK shows credit costs rising from USD233m to USD320m YoY in 1Q25 and UK shows credit costs rising from USD55m to USD169m YoY, both are key to HSBC</li>
</ul>


What matters with HSBC results is really not the bottom line, the management view or the constant currency comparatives, but rather the view on specific regions. 
Still there is concern HSBC has not yet realized losses on BoCom, it is not marked to market; there will be an impairment of USD1.2-1.6bn from dilution
HK shows credit costs rising from USD233m to USD320m YoY in 1Q25 and UK shows credit costs rising from USD55m to USD169m YoY, both are key to HSBC


HSBC - BoCom Losses Not Yet Realized, Credit Metrics in HK and UK Are Worsening

<ul>
<li>MAS releases quarterly granular data on Singapore banks' credit card charge-offs and the figures are rising sharply</li>
<li>It is not easily visible in banks' own interim results, so that we must use the MAS data as a window on card credit metrics</li>
<li>Credit card charge off rates are now (4Q24) 5.4% vs 4.2% YoY while the total charge-offs are now SGD110.0m in 4Q24 vs SGDm74.7m in 4Q23</li>
</ul>


MAS releases quarterly granular data on Singapore banks' credit card charge-offs and the figures are rising sharply
It is not easily visible in banks' own interim results, so that we must use the MAS data as a window on card credit metrics
Credit card charge off rates are now (4Q24) 5.4% vs 4.2% YoY while the total charge-offs are now SGD110.0m in 4Q24 vs SGDm74.7m in 4Q23


Singapore Banks - Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24

<ul>
<li>Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore's banks and it is not particularly positive </li>
<li>The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it's at 67.3%</li>
<li>Singapore's banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans</li>
</ul>


Newest monthly release from MAS gives insight into 1Q25 for Singapore's banks and it is not particularly positive 
The aggregate loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) continues to move lower, a year ago it was 69.3% and now it's at 67.3%
Singapore's banks added deposits of SGD125bn in the past 12 months through February compared with SGD48bn of loans


Singapore Banks - Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrial-and-commercial-bank-of-china-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1119:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (H) (1398 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ind-comm-bk-of-china-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:494:1" rel="noopener">ICBC (A) (601398 CH)</a> is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:30-18:30, Beijing time. 
</li>
<li>
Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate price action comparable to that of a typical trading day. </li>
<li>
Dividend Outlook: ICBC has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.0% for H shares and 4.5% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.</li>
</ul>



ICBC (H) (1398 HK) / ICBC (A) (601398 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:30-18:30, Beijing time. 


Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate price action comparable to that of a typical trading day. 

Dividend Outlook: ICBC has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.0% for H shares and 4.5% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.


ICBC (1398 HK) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

China Construction Bank H / Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank H (939 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-construction-bank-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24567:1" rel="noopener">China Construction Bank (601939 CH)</a> is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:00-18:15, Beijing time. 
</li>
<li>
Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate muted price action after earnings.</li>
<li>
Dividend Outlook: CCB has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.4% for H shares and 4.7% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.</li>
</ul>



China Construction Bank H (939 HK) / China Construction Bank (601939 CH) is scheduled to report its annual 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, 17:00-18:15, Beijing time. 


Expected Price Movement: Option implied movement and historically recorded movement both indicate muted price action after earnings.

Dividend Outlook: CCB has switched to semi-annual dividends, with current yields at 6.4% for H shares and 4.7% for A shares. The bank has a history of dividend increases.


China Construction Bank (939 HK/601939 CH) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

Hong Kong

Standard Chartered plc is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.  The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (2888 HK)

HSBC - BoCom Losses Not Yet Realized, Credit Metrics in HK and UK Are Worsening

HSBC's 1Q25 results data release show that it will book a $1.2-1.6bn impairment on BoComm once govt capital injection is done, and that credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24

MAS data shows consistently rising charge-offs and charge-off rates for credit cards in Singapore. Some may be normalization, but not likely all of...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

Singapore's banks new monthly data shows worsening LDR as deposit growth continues to outpace loan growth. There is risk to net interest income...

Daniel Tabbush

ICBC (1398 HK) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

ICBC to report 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, with expected price movement similar to a typical trading day. Investment decisions might...

Gaudenz Schneider

China Construction Bank (939 HK/601939 CH) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

China Construction Bank to report 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, with muted price movement expected post-earnings and a history of...

Gaudenz Schneider

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSBC - BoCom Losses Not Yet Realized, Credit Metrics in HK and UK Are Worsening

HSBC's 1Q25 results data release show that it will book a $1.2-1.6bn impairment on BoComm once govt capital injection is done, and that credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Charge off Rates on Cards Are Rising Substantially Through 4Q24

MAS data shows consistently rising charge-offs and charge-off rates for credit cards in Singapore. Some may be normalization, but not likely all of...

Daniel Tabbush

Singapore Banks - Credit Growth Overshadowed by Deposit Growth, New Monthly HFD

Singapore's banks new monthly data shows worsening LDR as deposit growth continues to outpace loan growth. There is risk to net interest income...

Daniel Tabbush

ICBC (1398 HK) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

​ICBC to report 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, with expected price movement similar to a typical trading day. Investment decisions might...

Gaudenz Schneider

China Construction Bank (939 HK/601939 CH) Earnings on 28 Mar: Anticipated Price Move and Strategy

​China Construction Bank to report 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, with muted price movement expected post-earnings and a history of...

Gaudenz Schneider

ICBC to report 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, with expected price movement similar to a typical trading day. Investment decisions might...

China Construction Bank to report 2024 financial results on 28 March 2025, with muted price movement expected post-earnings and a history of...