Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once</li>
<li>Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital</li>
<li>We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China</li>
</ul>


The idea of investing in banks is to put your capital to work by lending to corporates or consumer in any given economy or several at once
Singapore's banks are telling us with their more than SGD11bn of dividends announced, that they are not able to deploy their capital
We must expect that lending growth will remain subdued in the Singapore home market, in Malaysia, and in Greater China


Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Bain Capital acquires worker housing in Singapore for $555M from Blackstone, expanding their real estate portfolio in the region.</li><li>Standard Chartered Marketing Shanghai Office Blocks due to BlackRock default, highlighting the impact of financial decisions on commercial real estate.</li><li>PAG successfully raises $4B for APAC real estate fund, demonstrating investor confidence in the region's property market despite economic uncertainties.</li></ul>

Bain Capital acquires worker housing in Singapore for $555M from Blackstone, expanding their real estate portfolio in the region.Standard Chartered Marketing Shanghai Office Blocks due to BlackRock default, highlighting the impact of financial decisions on commercial real estate.PAG successfully raises $4B for APAC real estate fund, demonstrating investor confidence in the region's property market despite economic uncertainties.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Bain Capital buys worker housing from Blackstone for $555M.

<ul>
<li>Granular data from DBS shows worsening credit metrics in Greater China and in Hong Kong. </li>
<li>We use DBS and other banks, as a window on credit metrics for China banks and HK local banks.</li>
<li>The NPL ratio for its HK business moved from 1.1% to 1.7% YoY, while Pillar 3 data shows sharp rise in New NPLs in 2H24</li>
</ul>


Granular data from DBS shows worsening credit metrics in Greater China and in Hong Kong. 
We use DBS and other banks, as a window on credit metrics for China banks and HK local banks.
The NPL ratio for its HK business moved from 1.1% to 1.7% YoY, while Pillar 3 data shows sharp rise in New NPLs in 2H24


DBS - Granular Disclosure Shows Aggressive Deterioration in HK and China. Look at Pillar 3 Also.

<ul>
<li>There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions</li>
<li>China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year</li>
<li>Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments</li>
</ul>


There is increased collateral risk for banks in Hong Kong and China considering ongoing stresses in real estate in both regions
China Vanke just issued a Profit Alert indicating a loss during FY24 compared with a profit in preceding year
Land mark downs are to blame and worsening profit margins and additional provisions for impairments


HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)</li>
<li>We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.</li>
<li>Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact. Actionable Themes today include Financials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary (European Luxury Retailers)
We view this pullback as a buying opportunity and we are watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US; this is an important resistance-turned-support level dating back to July 2024.
Europe and Japan are on the cusp of major breakouts above critical resistance levels of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX


Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Hong Kong

Standard Chartered plc is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.  The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (2888 HK)

Singapore Banks - Giving Back Many Billions of Capital, Suggests Outlook for Lending, Not Great

Singapore's banks are all giving back lots of capital to shareholders. This may appear to be good for yield, but it suggests to us that lending...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia Real Estate Tracker (14-Feb-2025): Bain Capital buys worker housing from Blackstone for $555M.

Bain Capital acquires worker housing in Singapore, Standard Chartered faces marketing office blocks default, PAG raises $4B for APAC fund, and PGIM...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

DBS - Granular Disclosure Shows Aggressive Deterioration in HK and China. Look at Pillar 3 Also.

Granular disclosure in newly released data from DBS shows major deterioration in credit metrics in Hong Kong and in China. Its Pillar 3 release...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Banks - China Vanke FY24 EPS Profit Alert: Loss RMB3.79 Vs Profit RMB1.03, Bank Collateral Risk

The new profit alert from China Vanke highlights ongoing risks to banks, as land is their primary collateral. Real estate stresses are also evident...

Daniel Tabbush

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts

Opportunity Within Europe and Japan $HEDJ $DXJ; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX/Nikkei 225 Near Major Breakouts. $ACWI above $116. Buys in Financials,...

Vermilion Research

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