Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
Context: Index heavyweight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc-a723bd63-0890-486f-aaa0-3bb9ad2b95ce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21976:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (HSBA LN)</a> is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.</li>
<li>
Timing &amp; Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.</li>
<li>
Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC's announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.</li>
</ul>



Context: Index heavyweight HSBC (5 HK) / HSBC (HSBA LN) is set to report results on 28 October at 12:00 HKT — during the Hong Kong trading lunch break.

Timing &amp; Trading: The 30 Oct and 31 Oct option expiries offer direct instruments to gauge HSBC’s post-earnings volatility — or to take targeted exposure to, or hedge, the event.

Expected Move: Historical data reveals HSBC's announcement-day moves are significantly larger than on average trading days, with options currently pricing in a remarkably aligned ± 3.1% implied move.


HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weekly data from Fed shows continued strength for banks and the underlying US economy, for data 1 October</li>
<li>Loan loss reserves (LLR) just hit a new low growth rate at 0.72% YoY which should be definitive: credit metrics in US are exceptional, and improving </li>
<li>New loan growth data hit a new high, up 4.86 YoY, sensible given we now have a bit more time passage after rate cut</li>
</ul>


Weekly data from Fed shows continued strength for banks and the underlying US economy, for data 1 October
Loan loss reserves (LLR) just hit a new low growth rate at 0.72% YoY which should be definitive: credit metrics in US are exceptional, and improving 
New loan growth data hit a new high, up 4.86 YoY, sensible given we now have a bit more time passage after rate cut


US Banks - Loan Loss Reserves Growth Hits Low at 0.72% YoY & Loan Growth Hits New High at 4.86%

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

<ul><li>The SET Index is expected to trade sideways today, with the support at 1,284/1,270 and the resistance at 1,300/1,316.</li><li>US equities closed higher (S&amp;P500 +0.26%, NASDAQ +0.48%), supported by the PCE Price Index coming in line with expectations.</li><li>Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on the long-term foreign-currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) of five Thai banks—EXIM, KTB, TTB, Standard Chartered (Thai), and UOB (Thai)—to Negative from Stable.</li></ul>

The SET Index is expected to trade sideways today, with the support at 1,284/1,270 and the resistance at 1,300/1,316.US equities closed higher (S&amp;P500 +0.26%, NASDAQ +0.48%), supported by the PCE Price Index coming in line with expectations.Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on the long-term foreign-currency issuer default ratings (IDRs) of five Thai banks—EXIM, KTB, TTB, Standard Chartered (Thai), and UOB (Thai)—to Negative from Stable.

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 30, 2025

<ul>
<li>Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)</li>
<li>Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate</li>
<li>Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. </li>
</ul>


Overnight CP market in the US reflects the Fed rate cut immediately. Rates on overnight non-financial CP for A2/P2 companies now 4.20% (18 Sept) from 4.45% (17 Sept)
Weekly B/S for US banks has been showing for some time accelerating loan volume, with debt 5-7% less expensive overnight, loan volume should continue to accelerate
Where loans at US banks are only 67% of deposits, a 25bps reduction on both pools (loans, deposits) can be NIM expansionary. There are many moving parts, though. 


US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

<ul>
<li>SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics</li>
<li>Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025</li>
<li>Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve</li>
</ul>


SYF quarterly credit metrics is a sign of well improving consumer credit metrics
Credit costs are moving lower, in all quarters from June 2024 to June 2025
Total LLR coverage of loans remains high, NCO are shrinking: all is +ve


Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

Hong Kong

Standard Chartered plc is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.  The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (2888 HK)

HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.

Gaudenz Schneider

US Banks - Loan Loss Reserves Growth Hits Low at 0.72% YoY & Loan Growth Hits New High at 4.86%

New release from the Fed shows loan loss reserves at US banks seeing a lower growth rate that any time in the weekly series, and loan growth is...

Daniel Tabbush

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 30, 2025

US equities closed higher (S&P500 +0.26%, NASDAQ +0.48%), supported by the PCE Price Index coming in line with expectations.

Krungthai XSpring

US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

Volume of loans and commercial paper was already strong, now that debt is cheaper, this can accelerate. O/N CP rates already show rate cut. Low LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

SYF shows a narrowing of credit costs from 2Q24 to 2Q25, and it shows high LLR/loans over this time still, with declining net charge-offs. Suggests...

Daniel Tabbush

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HSBC (5 HK) Earnings on 28 Oct, 12:00 HKT: Price Action and Option Insights

​HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.

Gaudenz Schneider

US Banks - Loan Loss Reserves Growth Hits Low at 0.72% YoY & Loan Growth Hits New High at 4.86%

New release from the Fed shows loan loss reserves at US banks seeing a lower growth rate that any time in the weekly series, and loan growth is...

Daniel Tabbush

Krungthai XSpring Zoom Eng. September 30, 2025

US equities closed higher (S&P500 +0.26%, NASDAQ +0.48%), supported by the PCE Price Index coming in line with expectations.

Krungthai XSpring

US Banks - Lower Rates: Higher Loan Volume, Low LDR Can Mean +NIM

Volume of loans and commercial paper was already strong, now that debt is cheaper, this can accelerate. O/N CP rates already show rate cut. Low LDR...

Daniel Tabbush

Synchrony Financial - Progressively Lower Credit Costs, Still High LLR, Falling NCO Too

SYF shows a narrowing of credit costs from 2Q24 to 2Q25, and it shows high LLR/loans over this time still, with declining net charge-offs. Suggests...

Daniel Tabbush

HSBC set to report earnings with historically large announcement-day moves, with options pricing in ± 3.1% implied move.