Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Bank Of Ningbo Co Ltd A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Bank of Ningbo saw its margins decline dramatically from 1.79% to 1.55% from 3Q22 to 3Q23. This is of concern for earnings power in coming quarters. </li>
<li>The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is now down to 73% from 78% YoY which tends to act as a dampener on NIM and core income. </li>
<li>Credit metrics are worsening with NPLs up from RMB7.9bn to RMB9.3bn YoY in 3Q23. This rise is not easily visible in the NPL ratio due to rising total loans. </li>
</ul>


Bank of Ningbo saw its margins decline dramatically from 1.79% to 1.55% from 3Q22 to 3Q23. This is of concern for earnings power in coming quarters. 
The bank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is now down to 73% from 78% YoY which tends to act as a dampener on NIM and core income. 
Credit metrics are worsening with NPLs up from RMB7.9bn to RMB9.3bn YoY in 3Q23. This rise is not easily visible in the NPL ratio due to rising total loans. 


Bank of Ningbo - 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs

China Construction Bank H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.</li>
<li>CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.</li>
<li>Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.</li>
</ul>


The large SOE bank indicates that it will list its housing rental subsidiary, although the proceeds may be inconsequential given the size of CCB.
CCB shows lower (and very low) credit costs despite what appears to be a major weakening in its NPL distribution.
Loss NPLs are up 2.5x from FY19 to 1H23 much more than its 1.5x rise in total NPLs, so that its declining and benign credit costs may not last.


CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago</li>
<li>Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure</li>
</ul>


Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data
Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago
Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure


US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

<ul>
<li>Even the company itself shows in its recent presentation that a substantial portion of its revenue growth was due to rising rates on its cash deposit balances. This should wane. </li>
<li>The company's effective tax rate moved from 14% in the past few years, when it was stable to 10% in most recent period, this is not a core positive attribute. </li>
<li>Geopolitical risk, economic malaise in both Hong Kong and China, can lead to less interest in the market, trading, placements, perhaps suggesting its 6x PB is not warranted?</li>
</ul>


Even the company itself shows in its recent presentation that a substantial portion of its revenue growth was due to rising rates on its cash deposit balances. This should wane. 
The company's effective tax rate moved from 14% in the past few years, when it was stable to 10% in most recent period, this is not a core positive attribute. 
Geopolitical risk, economic malaise in both Hong Kong and China, can lead to less interest in the market, trading, placements, perhaps suggesting its 6x PB is not warranted?


Hong Kong Exchanges - Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation

<ul>
<li>There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. </li>
<li>Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. </li>
<li>Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. </li>
</ul>


There may be overly optimistic expectations for BOC HK's credit costs, which have been relatively benign for many years. 
Worsening economic developments in Hong Kong and China suggest that BOC HK will show a dramatic deterioration in credit metrics in coming interim results. 
Loan growth in Hong Kong is now hitting zero and funding cost growth has been extravagant, making for a poor combination to net interest income. 


BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

United Kingdom

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

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Standard Chartered (STAN LN)

Bank of Ningbo - 24bps NIM Decline, Lower LDR, 18% Higher NPLs

Bank of Ningbo shows sharply lower NIM YoY with a declining LDR ratio, that can both means worsening core earnings power. High real estate loan...

Daniel Tabbush

CCB- Housing Rental Subsidiary Listing May Be Overshadowed By Weak Credit Metrics

CCB will list its subsidiary China Housing Rental although this may be small relative to the bank's total loans, and any benefits can be...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

High frequency data shows US banks with very weak C&I loans and total loans. Large time deposit growth remains high, only adding to core income...

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Exchanges - Key Earnings Delta Was Rising Rates, Net Profit Inflated from Lower Taxation

Hong Kong Exchanges shows that much of its profit was due to rising rates on it cash deposits, and this can reverse. Lower taxation inflates...

Daniel Tabbush

BOC HK - Credit Costs Have Flat Lined for Years, a Blow Out in 2H23 or 1H24 Can Be a Shock

BOC HK has seen credit costs flat line for some years, possibly making it appear as though this bank does not experience credit cycles. Long term...

Daniel Tabbush

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