Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.</li>
<li>Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.</li>
</ul>


We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.
Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.


S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a> scored an own goal by failing to provide an update on the balance sheet in the update on 13 February. The results are next week.   </li>
<li>There is a whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding potential fines and Star is in desperate need to recapitalise its balance sheet to avoid breaching covenants. </li>
<li>Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the details of its equity raise are disclosed.</li>
</ul>



Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) scored an own goal by failing to provide an update on the balance sheet in the update on 13 February. The results are next week.   
There is a whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding potential fines and Star is in desperate need to recapitalise its balance sheet to avoid breaching covenants. 
Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the details of its equity raise are disclosed.


Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Star Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In its earnings update, troubled Aussie casino operator <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment (SGR AU)</a></strong> said revenue was down 1% on pre-COVID levels, and expects FY23 EBITDA of $330mn-$360mn vs A$525mn in FY19.</li>
<li>But the big news was the possible $400mn to $1.6bn non-cash impairment charge in relation to disciplinary fines from regulators and new casino duties. </li>
<li>Shares tanked and are currently trading around a lifetime low. One for the brave or one to ignore?</li>
</ul>


In its earnings update, troubled Aussie casino operator Star Entertainment (SGR AU) said revenue was down 1% on pre-COVID levels, and expects FY23 EBITDA of $330mn-$360mn vs A$525mn in FY19.
But the big news was the possible $400mn to $1.6bn non-cash impairment charge in relation to disciplinary fines from regulators and new casino duties. 
Shares tanked and are currently trading around a lifetime low. One for the brave or one to ignore?


Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, 300 in the run up to the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>There could be one change for ASX 20 and one change for ASX 100 while ASX 200 could see four ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>For ASX 300, there could be 15 ADDs and 12 DELs in the March 2023 Rebalance including some high impact names based on days-to-trade.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for S&amp;P ASX 20, 50, 100, 200, 300 in the run up to the March 2023 Rebalance.
There could be one change for ASX 20 and one change for ASX 100 while ASX 200 could see four ADDs/DELs.
For ASX 300, there could be 15 ADDs and 12 DELs in the March 2023 Rebalance including some high impact names based on days-to-trade.


Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs

<ul>
<li>We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to trade over 3 days of ADV on 13 stocks, over 5 days of ADV on 9 stocks and over 10x ADV on 4 stocks. </li>
<li>Shorts have been covering positions on stocks where there are expected to be passive inflows and increasing positions on stocks that are expected to have passive outflows.</li>
</ul>


We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
Passive trackers will need to trade over 3 days of ADV on 13 stocks, over 5 days of ADV on 9 stocks and over 10x ADV on 4 stocks. 
Shorts have been covering positions on stocks where there are expected to be passive inflows and increasing positions on stocks that are expected to have passive outflows.


S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

Australia

The Star Entertainment Group Limited owns and operates casinos and hotels. The Company offers services and amenities such as gaming facilities, nightclubs, bars, restaurants, exhibition centers. The Star Entertainment Group conducts business in Australia.

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Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the...

Arun George

Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?

On balance, I think (most of) the bad news is baked in. The wild card is the impact of any new NSW tax regime. This is one investment for the brave.

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs

The Potential ASX 200 & 300 ADDs basket has recently dipped against the ASX 200 index quite sharply and with roughly 6 weeks to Implementation, I...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March. Lots of...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

We forecast 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 for the ASX 200 & 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 in March. Adds have outperformed deletes...

Brian Freitas

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the...

Arun George

Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?

On balance, I think (most of) the bad news is baked in. The wild card is the impact of any new NSW tax regime. This is one investment for the brave.

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/​​​​​​​​​​ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs

The Potential ASX 200 & 300 ADDs basket has recently dipped against the ASX 200 index quite sharply and with roughly 6 weeks to Implementation, I...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March

We currently see 1 change for the ASX20, 2 for the ASX100, 4 changes for the ASX 200 and 9 adds/ 6 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March. Lots of...

Brian Freitas

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

Quiddity Leaderboard-S&P/ASX Mar 23: Time to Be Bullish ASX 200 & 300 Potential ADDs

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance Preview: High Impact Changes in March