Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist, Casino Business Review LLC

Howard J Klein

Global Gaming and Casinos Industry Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

Star Entertainment Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Australia's Star Entertainment has three key casino properties, all of which show early signs of post-pandemic recovery reversing losses with earnings gains and growing financial discipline and strengthening earnings  prospects.</li>
<li>While stock at $4.15 at writing sits near 52 week high, prospects indicate even better numbers to come during its FY1Q22 and FY2Q22 on the way.</li>
<li>Star pulled its $billion bid for competitor Crown Resorts citing continuing regulatory uncertainties, but Star faces some of its own.</li>
</ul>


Australia's Star Entertainment has three key casino properties, all of which show early signs of post-pandemic recovery reversing losses with earnings gains and growing financial discipline and strengthening earnings  prospects.
While stock at $4.15 at writing sits near 52 week high, prospects indicate even better numbers to come during its FY1Q22 and FY2Q22 on the way.
Star pulled its $billion bid for competitor Crown Resorts citing continuing regulatory uncertainties, but Star faces some of its own.


Star Entertainment Group Ltd: S Recovery Cycle Story While the Stock Is Still Cheap

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>On the 19 April, Oaktree <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/53085/uyout%20Mr%20Packer%20via%20a%20%E2%80%9Ca%20structured%20instrument%20with%20the%20proceeds%20to%20be%20used%20by%20Crown%20to%20buy%20back%20some%20or%20all%20of%20the%20Crown%20shares%E2%80%9D%20held%20by%20his%20private%20company,%20Consolidated%20Press%20Holdings." target="_blank" rel="noopener">made</a> an $3bn unsolicited proposal to CWN's board via a then-undetermined debt/equity structure.</p>
<p>The transaction was geared to buy James Packer 37% stake in CWN via “<em>a structured instrument with the proceeds to be used by Crown to buy back some or all of the Crown shares</em>” held by his Packer's private company, Consolidated Press Holdings (CPH).</p>
<p>It was hardly a clean counter to Blackstone's cash Offer of <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02355769-3A563928?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$11.85/share</a>. And questions remained as to size of the equity stake and the facility's interest rate. </p>
<p>Blackstone subsequently increased its non-binding proposal for CWN by 4% on the 4 May to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372885-3A566842?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$12.35</a>. Shortly after, Crown's domestic rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-grp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU)</a> lobbed a non-binding <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372888_PS-3A566843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to clawback.</p>
<p>Crown summarily concluded  Blackstone's Offer <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375134-3A567212?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">undervalued</a> the company, but it required <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375140-3A567213?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more information</a> from Star to finalise its decisions. There was no comment on Oaktree's offer.</p>
<h3>The New News</h3>
<p>This morning Oaktree <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02384403-3A568800?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bumped its proposal/facility</a> to $3.1bn, incorporating a 2bn private term loan and a $1.1bn loan convertible into new shares. </p>
<p>The facility would be used to selectively buyback CPH's shares in CWN.</p>
<p>The convertible would be convertible into new shares of CWN at A$13/share, with such conversion capped at 9.99% of Crown's outstanding shares.</p>
<p>It's an interesting proposition. Plus it sticks a $13/share handle out there.</p>
<p>More below the fold.</p>

On the 19 April, Oaktree made an $3bn unsolicited proposal to CWN's board via a then-undetermined debt/equity structure.
The transaction was geared to buy James Packer 37% stake in CWN via “a structured instrument with the proceeds to be used by Crown to buy back some or all of the Crown shares” held by his Packer's private company, Consolidated Press Holdings (CPH).
It was hardly a clean counter to Blackstone's cash Offer of $11.85/share. And questions remained as to size of the equity stake and the facility's interest rate. 
Blackstone subsequently increased its non-binding proposal for CWN by 4% on the 4 May to $12.35. Shortly after, Crown's domestic rival Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU) lobbed a non-binding proposal, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to clawback.
Crown summarily concluded  Blackstone's Offer undervalued the company, but it required more information from Star to finalise its decisions. There was no comment on Oaktree's offer.
The New News
This morning Oaktree bumped its proposal/facility to $3.1bn, incorporating a 2bn private term loan and a $1.1bn loan convertible into new shares. 
The facility would be used to selectively buyback CPH's shares in CWN.
The convertible would be convertible into new shares of CWN at A$13/share, with such conversion capped at 9.99% of Crown's outstanding shares.
It's an interesting proposition. Plus it sticks a $13/share handle out there.
More below the fold.

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Oaktree's Intriguing Proposal

<div>
<p>On the 10 May, Blackstone increased its non-binding proposal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> by 4% to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372885-3A566842?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$12.35</a>. Shortly after, Crown's domestic rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-grp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU)</a> lobbed an unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372888_PS-3A566843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to clawback.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>In <em><a href="https://skr.ma/7hWBx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets</a></em>, I concluded both Offers were light.</p>
<p>This morning Crown agreed that Blackstone's Offer <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375134-3A567212?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">undervalued</a> the company. But that it required <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375140-3A567213?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more information</a> from Star before finalising its view on the cash/scrip Offer. Based on the pushback to Blackstone's Offer, it is difficult to see the board recommending Star's A$0.15/share premium.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
</div>


On the 10 May, Blackstone increased its non-binding proposal for Crown Resorts (CWN AU) by 4% to $12.35. Shortly after, Crown's domestic rival Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU) lobbed an unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative proposal, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to clawback.


In Crown Resorts: Blackstone &amp; Star Place Their Bets, I concluded both Offers were light.
This morning Crown agreed that Blackstone's Offer undervalued the company. But that it required more information from Star before finalising its view on the cash/scrip Offer. Based on the pushback to Blackstone's Offer, it is difficult to see the board recommending Star's A$0.15/share premium.


More below the fold. 


Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star

Last Week in Event SPACE: Prosus/Naspers, Wilmar, Invesco Office, Boral, Honshu Chem, Crown Resorts

<div>
<p>When <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crown-resorts-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:808:1" rel="noopener">Crown Resorts (CWN AU)</a> <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02355769-3A563928?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> on the 22 March it had received an unsolicited, non-binding and indicative takeover <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02355769-3A563928?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, by way of a Scheme, from Blackstone, at $11.85/share - a 19% premium to the average price of Crown's shares since the release of its <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02342917-3A561577?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1H21 results</a>, my initial takeaway was "<em>Blackstone needs to bid higher</em>".</p>
<p>This morning, Blackstone did just that - increasing its non-binding proposal by 4% to <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372885-3A566842?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$12.35</a>.</p>
<p>Seven minutes later, Crown's domestic rival <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-grp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU)</a> tabled an unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02372888_PS-3A566843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">proposal</a>, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to a scale back.</p>
<p>Both Offers still look light.</p>
<p>More below the fold. </p>
</div>


When Crown Resorts (CWN AU) announced on the 22 March it had received an unsolicited, non-binding and indicative takeover proposal, by way of a Scheme, from Blackstone, at $11.85/share - a 19% premium to the average price of Crown's shares since the release of its 1H21 results, my initial takeaway was "Blackstone needs to bid higher".
This morning, Blackstone did just that - increasing its non-binding proposal by 4% to $12.35.
Seven minutes later, Crown's domestic rival Star Entertainment Grp (SGR AU) tabled an unsolicited, non-binding, and indicative proposal, by way of a Scheme, either via the issuance of 2.68 new Star shares for every Crown share, or a possible cash alternative of A$12.50/share, subject to a scale back.
Both Offers still look light.
More below the fold. 


Crown Resorts: Blackstone & Star Place Their Bets

Australia

The Star Entertainment Group Limited owns and operates casinos and hotels. The Company offers services and amenities such as gaming facilities, nightclubs, bars, restaurants, exhibition centers. The Star Entertainment Group conducts business in Australia.

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Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)

Star Entertainment Group Ltd: S Recovery Cycle Story While the Stock Is Still Cheap

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Howard J Klein

Crown Resorts (CWN AU): Oaktree's Intriguing Proposal

Despite the positive aspects of Oaktree's proposal, the pushback may be that Crown's board may prefer to back an Offer which is simply cleaner in...

David Blennerhassett

Crown Says Blackstone's Bid Is Light. Undecided On Star

I believe this transaction requires a clean A$14+/share handle, in cash, to get up. That, or a material uplift in Star's scrip ratio. I'd continue...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Prosus/Naspers, Wilmar, Invesco Office, Boral, Honshu Chem, Crown Resorts

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Crown Resorts: Blackstone & Star Place Their Bets

Assuming Crown retains the casino licenses in Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth, removing the investigative overhang, then Crown will re-rate beyond...

David Blennerhassett

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