Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

Star Petroleum Refining / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We turned more positive on SPRC’s earnings outlook after yesterday’s analyst meeting.</li><li>OPEX pressure should ease in 4Q25–1Q26E following the shift in maintenance allocation to 30% OPEX and 70% CAPEX (from 70%:30%).</li><li>Refining margins have gained in 4Q25E, with SG GRM QTD averaging USD8.95/bbl, on strong gasoil and jet crack spreads amid limited supply from refinery maintenance in North America and the Middle East in Oct, plus disruptions at Russian refineries from Ukraine attacks.</li></ul>

We turned more positive on SPRC’s earnings outlook after yesterday’s analyst meeting.OPEX pressure should ease in 4Q25–1Q26E following the shift in maintenance allocation to 30% OPEX and 70% CAPEX (from 70%:30%).Refining margins have gained in 4Q25E, with SG GRM QTD averaging USD8.95/bbl, on strong gasoil and jet crack spreads amid limited supply from refinery maintenance in North America and the Middle East in Oct, plus disruptions at Russian refineries from Ukraine attacks.

STAR PETROLEUM REFINING Plc. (SPRC): More Positive On Earnings As OPEX Pressure Eases

<ul><li>3Q25 earnings beat our/market estimates on strong enterprise sales volumes and margins.</li><li>We maintain Outperform and lift 2026 FV to Bt5.70 (from Bt5.25).</li><li>3Q25 NP was Bt1.58bn, reversing losses of Bt2.2bn in 3Q24 and Bt812mn in 2Q25 (which reflected heavy stock losses).</li></ul>

3Q25 earnings beat our/market estimates on strong enterprise sales volumes and margins.We maintain Outperform and lift 2026 FV to Bt5.70 (from Bt5.25).3Q25 NP was Bt1.58bn, reversing losses of Bt2.2bn in 3Q24 and Bt812mn in 2Q25 (which reflected heavy stock losses).

STAR PETROLEUM REFINING Plc. (SPRC): 3Q25 Beat On Strong Enterprise Sales Volumes ...

<ul><li>We expect strong 3Q25E core and net profit, driven by better enterprise margin and stock gains.</li><li>We cut 2025–26E core profit forecasts to reflect higher OPEX in 4Q25–1Q26E ahead of refinery maintenance in 1Q26E.</li><li>Core profit should bottom in 2025–26E and rebound in 2027E as refinery throughput normalizes (expect 2Y core EPS at +14% CAGR).</li></ul>

We expect strong 3Q25E core and net profit, driven by better enterprise margin and stock gains.We cut 2025–26E core profit forecasts to reflect higher OPEX in 4Q25–1Q26E ahead of refinery maintenance in 1Q26E.Core profit should bottom in 2025–26E and rebound in 2027E as refinery throughput normalizes (expect 2Y core EPS at +14% CAGR).

STAR PETROLEUM REFINING Plc. (SPRC): Solid 3Q25E...

<ul><li>2Q25 earnings turned to a net loss (from stock losses), but the loss was larger than expected due to higher-than- expected OPEX (from project operating expenses and turnaround costs of a planned refinery shutdown in 1Q26).</li><li>However, the 3Q25E operating momentum is expected to improve QoQ, supported by strong diesel crack spreads and a lower stock impact.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating and revise our 12-month FV to Bt5.85, based on a required return of 6.1%, after lowering our house view’s MRP assumption to 5.26% (previously Bt5.55, 6.3%, and 6.83%).</li></ul>

2Q25 earnings turned to a net loss (from stock losses), but the loss was larger than expected due to higher-than- expected OPEX (from project operating expenses and turnaround costs of a planned refinery shutdown in 1Q26).However, the 3Q25E operating momentum is expected to improve QoQ, supported by strong diesel crack spreads and a lower stock impact.We maintain our Neutral rating and revise our 12-month FV to Bt5.85, based on a required return of 6.1%, after lowering our house view’s MRP assumption to 5.26% (previously Bt5.55, 6.3%, and 6.83%).

Star Petroleum Refining - Stock Loss Turned 2Q25 to a Net Loss..

<ul>
<li>We expect 2Q25E to mark the lowest quarter of the year, turning to a net loss, primarily due to stock losses.</li>
<li>However, the momentum is expected to improve QoQ in 3Q25E, driven by strong gasoline crack spreads — benefiting SPRC as a max- gasoline refinery — supported by the US driving season and limited gasoline output from the Dangote refinery.</li>
<li>This underpins an upward revision to our 2025-27E core profit forecasts, although the 2025E net profit is revised down due mainly to the impact of stock losses.</li>
</ul>


We expect 2Q25E to mark the lowest quarter of the year, turning to a net loss, primarily due to stock losses.
However, the momentum is expected to improve QoQ in 3Q25E, driven by strong gasoline crack spreads — benefiting SPRC as a max- gasoline refinery — supported by the US driving season and limited gasoline output from the Dangote refinery.
This underpins an upward revision to our 2025-27E core profit forecasts, although the 2025E net profit is revised down due mainly to the impact of stock losses.


Star Petroleum Refining - Stock Loss to Be Behind 2Q25E Net Loss

Thailand

Star Petroleum Refining PCL offers  petroleum products both for domestic consumption and for export and operates a crude oil refinery. Star Petroleum Refining operates in Thailand.

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Star Petroleum Refining (SPRC TB)

STAR PETROLEUM REFINING Plc. (SPRC): More Positive On Earnings As OPEX Pressure Eases

OPEX pressure should ease in 4Q25–1Q26E following the shift in maintenance allocation to 30% OPEX and 70% CAPEX (from 70%:30%).

Krungthai XSpring

STAR PETROLEUM REFINING Plc. (SPRC): 3Q25 Beat On Strong Enterprise Sales Volumes ...

3Q25 earnings beat our/market estimates on strong enterprise sales volumes and margins. We maintain Outperform and lift 2026 FV to Bt5.70 (from...

Krungthai XSpring

STAR PETROLEUM REFINING Plc. (SPRC): Solid 3Q25E...

We expect strong 3Q25E core and net profit, driven by better enterprise margin and stock gains. We cut 2025–26E core profit forecasts to reflect...

Krungthai XSpring

Star Petroleum Refining - Stock Loss Turned 2Q25 to a Net Loss..

The valuation metrics indicate a neutral view on the current valuation and tactical risks, amid a 2Y core EPS CAGR (2025-27E) of +8%, in line with...

Krungthai XSpring

Star Petroleum Refining - Stock Loss to Be Behind 2Q25E Net Loss

We expect 2Q25E to mark the lowest quarter of the year, turning to a net loss, primarily due to stock losses. However, the momentum is expected to...

Krungthai XSpring

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