Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia), SCCM Asia Research

SCCM Asia Research

Research from SooChow CSSD Capital Markets (Asia)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Singapore</h2>
<h3>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/starhill-global-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10791" rel="noopener">Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT SP)</a> – Starting FY22E on a high note (BUY; TP S$0.71/Unit)</h3>
2H21 Revenue/NPI have recovered to 90%/88% of 2H19’s. Recent resurgence of Covid-19 cases could weigh against rental reversions and demand further rental assistance. However, SGREIT’s resilient occupancy and master lease structure should offer DPU support. Reiterate BUY with higher TP $0.71/unit, as we rollover our valuations to FY22E. Faster than expected reopening of SG economy and tourism revival would be potential re-rating catalyst in FY22E.
<ul>
<li>Positive surprise with rental rebates reversals and lower expenses. 2H21 revenue and NPI increased 10.5% and 20.2% YoY to S$92.9m and S$69.8m, respectively, mainly due to lower rental assistance and stronger AUD. FY21 revenue and NPI grew 0.3% and 2.0% YoY to S$181.3m and S$134.7m, respectively. S$3.2m of rental rebates reversals from Ngee Ann City and AUS assets were offset by higher rental rebates given to Wisma Atria tenants in 2H21. Overall, rental assistance amounted to c.S$9.6m in FY21 (vs. S$17m in FY20). Combined with adjustment to reflect timing difference of property tax refunds in SG, the absence of S$3.7m one-off capital allowance claim in 2H20, and release of S$4.6m deferred FY20 DI, 2H21 DPU was 195.7% higher at S$2.07c, bringing FY21 DPU 33.4% YoY higher to S$3.95c. The S$7.7m retained FY20 DI has been fully been released with S$0.14c in 1H21 and S$0.21c in 2H21. Excluding the deferred FY20 DI, DPU increased 77.1% and 8.8% YoY in 2H21 and FY21, respectively. FY21 revenue, NPI and DPU exceeded our full-year forecasts by 3.7%, 5.4%, and 12.1%, respectively</li>
<li>Sales has yet to recover to pre-Covid level but occupancies offer silver linings. Pressure at WA (Retail) persists with lower occupancy, lower rent and higher OpEx in 2H21. FY21 rent reversion for Retail came in at -11% vs. Office at -6%. Nonetheless, we take comfort in the resilient portfolio occupancy at 96.7% and committed SG Retail occupancy at 99.3%, supported by new tenant demand. With 15.1% of GRI is due for expiry in FY22E (of which, 11.6% are Retail leases and 3.6% are Office leases), mgmt. expects rent reversion, particularly for Retail’s, to be slight negative, alongside further rental rebates and lease restructuring in view of the renewed movement restrictions in SG and AUS</li>
<li>Reiterate BUY with higher TP of S$0.71/unit, as we roll over our valuations to FY22E. 36.1% gearing level would provide SGREIT financial flexibility in executing its long[1]term strategy to diversify into assets that generate stable cash flows and offers attractive yields. Mgmt. targets to acquire offi ce properties in key gateway cities in SG, AUS and JP, thus bringing revenue mix of Retail vs. Office to 50:50 (currently at 86:14) over the next 3-5 years. Potential launches of travel bubble, further easing of safe distancing measures, and greater proportion of workers returning to office should expedite SGREIT’s recovery in FY22E.</li>
</ul>

Singapore

Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT SP) – Starting FY22E on a high note (BUY; TP S$0.71/Unit)
2H21 Revenue/NPI have recovered to 90%/88% of 2H19’s. Recent resurgence of Covid-19 cases could weigh against rental reversions and demand further rental assistance. However, SGREIT’s resilient occupancy and master lease structure should offer DPU support. Reiterate BUY with higher TP $0.71/unit, as we rollover our valuations to FY22E. Faster than expected reopening of SG economy and tourism revival would be potential re-rating catalyst in FY22E.

Positive surprise with rental rebates reversals and lower expenses. 2H21 revenue and NPI increased 10.5% and 20.2% YoY to S$92.9m and S$69.8m, respectively, mainly due to lower rental assistance and stronger AUD. FY21 revenue and NPI grew 0.3% and 2.0% YoY to S$181.3m and S$134.7m, respectively. S$3.2m of rental rebates reversals from Ngee Ann City and AUS assets were offset by higher rental rebates given to Wisma Atria tenants in 2H21. Overall, rental assistance amounted to c.S$9.6m in FY21 (vs. S$17m in FY20). Combined with adjustment to reflect timing difference of property tax refunds in SG, the absence of S$3.7m one-off capital allowance claim in 2H20, and release of S$4.6m deferred FY20 DI, 2H21 DPU was 195.7% higher at S$2.07c, bringing FY21 DPU 33.4% YoY higher to S$3.95c. The S$7.7m retained FY20 DI has been fully been released with S$0.14c in 1H21 and S$0.21c in 2H21. Excluding the deferred FY20 DI, DPU increased 77.1% and 8.8% YoY in 2H21 and FY21, respectively. FY21 revenue, NPI and DPU exceeded our full-year forecasts by 3.7%, 5.4%, and 12.1%, respectively
Sales has yet to recover to pre-Covid level but occupancies offer silver linings. Pressure at WA (Retail) persists with lower occupancy, lower rent and higher OpEx in 2H21. FY21 rent reversion for Retail came in at -11% vs. Office at -6%. Nonetheless, we take comfort in the resilient portfolio occupancy at 96.7% and committed SG Retail occupancy at 99.3%, supported by new tenant demand. With 15.1% of GRI is due for expiry in FY22E (of which, 11.6% are Retail leases and 3.6% are Office leases), mgmt. expects rent reversion, particularly for Retail’s, to be slight negative, alongside further rental rebates and lease restructuring in view of the renewed movement restrictions in SG and AUS
Reiterate BUY with higher TP of S$0.71/unit, as we roll over our valuations to FY22E. 36.1% gearing level would provide SGREIT financial flexibility in executing its long[1]term strategy to diversify into assets that generate stable cash flows and offers attractive yields. Mgmt. targets to acquire offi ce properties in key gateway cities in SG, AUS and JP, thus bringing revenue mix of Retail vs. Office to 50:50 (currently at 86:14) over the next 3-5 years. Potential launches of travel bubble, further easing of safe distancing measures, and greater proportion of workers returning to office should expedite SGREIT’s recovery in FY22E.


ASEAN Builder's Scoop (06Aug21) - SGREIT Starting FY22E on a High Note

<h2>Singapore</h2>
<h3>SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)</h3>
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
 
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
SGREIT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
CDREIT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
FEHT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
OUECT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
FIRT
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
FHT
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Period
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
2H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1H21
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
9M21
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Gross Revenue (S$ m)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
92.9 (10.5% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
66.2 (27.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
41.6 (-6.1% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
133.5 (-6% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
38.9 (+0.9% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
NA
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
NPI (S$ m)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
69.8 (20.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
37.0 (24.4% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
36.2 (-6.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
109 (-3.1% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
37.6 (+0.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
NA
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
DPU (S$ c)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
2.07 (195.7% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.22 (-19.2% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.1 (+6.8% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.23 (+23% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.3 (-43.5% YoY)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
NA
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
NAV per Unit (S$)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.81
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.29
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.7912
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.58
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.3512
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
1H21: 0.66
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
P/B (x)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.75
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.95
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.73
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.34
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
0.75
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
0.79
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Occupancy (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
96.7
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
5 SG Hotels excl. W Hotel and NCQ: 73.5
6 SG Hotels excl. W Hotel: 70.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Hotels : 77.6
Service Residence : 76.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
91.7 (Commercial)
92.3 (SG Office)
89.6 (Mandarin  Gallery)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not Disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
SG: 59.8
AUS: 44.3
UK: 18.8
JP: 31.3
MY: 7.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Reversion (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
RevPAR (% YoY):
SG: -19.5 (or -9.5 incl. W Hotel)
Maldives: +139.2
NZ: -31.8
Germany: +61.2
Italy: -84.4
JP: -27.9
UK: -21.8
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
RevPAR (% YoY):
Hotels: -35.4
Service Residence: -16.9 YoY
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
2Q21 Office reversions: -5.7 to +2.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not Disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
RevPAR (% YoY):
SG: -31.4
AUS: -52.3
UK: -68.9
JP: -40.8
MY: -87.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Gearing (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
36.1
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
39.1
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
41.3
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
38
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
34.7
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
42.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Cost of Debt (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
3.28
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1.9
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
2.1
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
3.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not Disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
2.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
6.9
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
4.4
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
4.7
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
7.4
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
9.8 (annualized 1H21)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
3.1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Debt Hedged (%)
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
91
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
63.3
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
68.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
82.2
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Not Disclosed
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
77
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Target Price
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Under Review
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
N/A
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Rating
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
Under Review
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.1pt;">
N/A
</td>
<td style="width: 98.15pt;">
N/A
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Singapore
SREITs results in a glance (see detailed spreadsheet and calendar attached)




 


SGREIT


CDREIT


FEHT


OUECT


FIRT


FHT




Period


2H21


1H21


1H21


1H21


1H21


9M21




Gross Revenue (S$ m)


92.9 (10.5% YoY)


66.2 (27.2% YoY)


41.6 (-6.1% YoY)


133.5 (-6% YoY)


38.9 (+0.9% YoY)


NA




NPI (S$ m)


69.8 (20.2% YoY)


37.0 (24.4% YoY)


36.2 (-6.2% YoY)


109 (-3.1% YoY)


37.6 (+0.2% YoY)


NA




DPU (S$ c)


2.07 (195.7% YoY)


1.22 (-19.2% YoY)


1.1 (+6.8% YoY)


1.23 (+23% YoY)


1.3 (-43.5% YoY)


NA




NAV per Unit (S$)


0.81


1.29


0.7912


0.58


0.3512


1H21: 0.66




P/B (x)


0.75


0.95


0.73


1.34


0.75


0.79




Occupancy (%)


96.7


5 SG Hotels excl. W Hotel and NCQ: 73.5
6 SG Hotels excl. W Hotel: 70.2


Hotels : 77.6
Service Residence : 76.2


91.7 (Commercial)
92.3 (SG Office)
89.6 (Mandarin  Gallery)


Not Disclosed


SG: 59.8
AUS: 44.3
UK: 18.8
JP: 31.3
MY: 7.7




Reversion (%)


Not disclosed


RevPAR (% YoY):
SG: -19.5 (or -9.5 incl. W Hotel)
Maldives: +139.2
NZ: -31.8
Germany: +61.2
Italy: -84.4
JP: -27.9
UK: -21.8


RevPAR (% YoY):
Hotels: -35.4
Service Residence: -16.9 YoY


2Q21 Office reversions: -5.7 to +2.2


Not Disclosed


RevPAR (% YoY):
SG: -31.4
AUS: -52.3
UK: -68.9
JP: -40.8
MY: -87.7




Gearing (%)


36.1


39.1


41.3


38


34.7


42.1




Cost of Debt (%)


3.28


1.9


2.1


3.2


Not Disclosed


2.0




1 Yr Fwd Yield (%)


6.9


4.4


4.7


7.4


9.8 (annualized 1H21)


3.1




Debt Hedged (%)


91


63.3


68.2


82.2


Not Disclosed


77




Target Price


Under Review


N/A


N/A


N/A


N/A


N/A




Rating


Under Review


N/A


N/A


N/A


N/A


N/A





ASEAN Builder's Scoop (30Jul21) - SGREIT Solid Set of Results

Partner, River Valley Asset Management

River Valley Asset Management

Partner

Singapore-based boutique asset management firm

River Valley Asset Management is a Singapore-based boutique asset management firm. Our team at RVAM strongly believes in being a trusted steward of our clients' wealth across generations.

Each of our fund managers has years of rich portfolio management experience over multiple market cycles at world-class investment houses. We bring our clients the combined strength of our investment team to manage their financial portfolios and to provide bespoke guidance on all aspects of their financial health.

We offer multi-asset class expert investment advice to accredited investors who are family offices, high net worth individuals and institutional investors to preserve and grow our clients' wealth.

The fund management team of the company includes Homiyar Vasania, Anand Ramachandran and Jamshed Desai.

As a mature economy with stable businesses, Singapore's equity benchmarks are dominated by Banks &amp; Government Linked Companies (GLC's) which have grown large over time. The large listed companies in Singapore (private as well as GLC’s) are now facing headwinds from tight labour markets resulting in rising costs and, in the absence of growth, the need to focus on raising productivity.  It is therefore not surprising that the Singapore markets do not excite the average investor. However, within this space we have been finding many hidden gems which have consistently delivered and increasingly fit the needs of a Singaporean investor looking for stable returns in a low growth environment: the REIT marketplace. Over the last seven years the REIT index has delivered over 10% p.a. annualized return which stands in stark contrast to the meagre 4% returns from benchmark STI index.

As a mature economy with stable businesses, Singapore's equity benchmarks are dominated by Banks &amp; Government Linked Companies (GLC's) which have grown large over time. The large listed companies in Singapore (private as well as GLC’s) are now facing headwinds from tight labour markets resulting in rising costs and, in the absence of growth, the need to focus on raising productivity.   It is therefore not surprising that the Singapore markets do not excite the average investor. However, within this space we have been finding many hidden gems which have consistently delivered and increasingly fit the needs of a Singaporean investor looking for stable returns in a low growth environment: the REIT marketplace. Over the last seven years the REIT index has delivered over 10% p.a. annualized return which stands in stark contrast to the meagre 4% returns from benchmark STI index.

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>REIT Watch - Performance of S-Reits within the STI On Thursday night (Oct 12), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly higher than markets had anticipated, leading to higher expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely implement one more interest rate hike before the year ends.</li><li>The three S-Reits with the lowest gearing ratios are: Sasseur Reit (26.2 per cent), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (28.6 per cent) and Paragon Reit (29.8 per cent).</li></ul>

REIT Watch - Performance of S-Reits within the STI On Thursday night (Oct 12), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly higher than markets had anticipated, leading to higher expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely implement one more interest rate hike before the year ends.The three S-Reits with the lowest gearing ratios are: Sasseur Reit (26.2 per cent), Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust (28.6 per cent) and Paragon Reit (29.8 per cent).

REIT Watch - S-Reits among top gainers in STI for week starting Oct 9

<ul><li>Retail S-REITs’ metrics surpass pre-Covid; poised to benefit from tourism boost The Singapore Tourism Board expects the nation to receive up to 14 million international visitors this year, more than double the 6.3 million recorded in 2022.</li><li>Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust’s VivoCity Mall reported that its Q3 FY22/23 sales continued to exceed pre-pandemic levels, with shopper traffic and tenant sales growing 50.5 per cent and 38.5 per cent yoy, respectively.</li></ul>

Retail S-REITs’ metrics surpass pre-Covid; poised to benefit from tourism boost The Singapore Tourism Board expects the nation to receive up to 14 million international visitors this year, more than double the 6.3 million recorded in 2022.Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust’s VivoCity Mall reported that its Q3 FY22/23 sales continued to exceed pre-pandemic levels, with shopper traffic and tenant sales growing 50.5 per cent and 38.5 per cent yoy, respectively.

REIT Watch – Retail S-REITs’ metrics surpass pre-Covid; poised to benefit from tourism boost

Singapore

Starhill Global REIT is a Singapore-based real estate investment trust that invests in a portfolio of retail and office properties. It owns nine mid- to high-end assets across Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Japan, and China, generating revenue primarily from leasing. The company was established in 2005 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT SP)

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (06Aug21) - SGREIT Starting FY22E on a High Note

SGREIT starting FY22E on a high note; Rising online sales trend continues; Mapletree issues fixed-for-life perps at 3.7%; Low base boosts RLC's...

SCCM Asia Research

ASEAN Builder's Scoop (30Jul21) - SGREIT Solid Set of Results

SGREIT solid set of results; CDREIT not out of woods yet; FEHT weak operations continued; OUECT slowing reversions offset by hotel rebound; FIRT...

SCCM Asia Research

Singapore - The Hidden Gems

As a mature economy with stable businesses, Singapore's equity benchmarks are dominated by Banks & Government Linked Companies (GLC's) which...

River Valley Asset Management

REIT Watch - S-Reits among top gainers in STI for week starting Oct 9

REIT Watch - Performance of S-Reits within the STI On Thursday night (Oct 12), the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly higher than...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

REIT Watch – Retail S-REITs’ metrics surpass pre-Covid; poised to benefit from tourism boost

Retail S-REITs’ metrics surpass pre-Covid; poised to benefit from tourism boost The Singapore Tourism Board expects the nation to receive up to 14...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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