SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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Equity Bottom-Up

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    <div class='content-caption'>Rebound in flows</div>
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<p>The iEdge S-REIT Index ended the third quarter of 2021 relatively flat with 0.2 per cent total returns, in line with global REIT markets which declined towards the later half of the quarter due to steepening of yield curves. This brings the index year-to-date total returns to 4.5 per cent.</p>

<p>There are 20 trusts which outperformed the index in 3Q2021, including ten of the 11 trusts that entered the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Developed Index following the most recent September review. The top five performing trusts, which were all recent index inclusions, were: OUE Commercial REIT (14.2 per cent), Starhill Global REIT (12.4 per cent), ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (10.1 per cent), Far East Hospitality Trust (9.9 per cent), and ESR-REIT (9.3 per cent). These five trusts received net institutional inflows of S$192 million and net retail outflows of S$89 million this quarter.</p>

<p>In the year-to-date, the five best performing trusts where: ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (60.2 per cent), Sabana REIT (34.3 per cent), Starhill Global REIT (32.6 per cent), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (28.4 per cent) and First REIT (27.8 per cent). These five trusts received net institutional inflows of S$132 million and net retail outflows of S$66 million in the year-to-date.<br><br>
Overall, institutional investors were net buyers of the S-Reits and property trusts sector in the third quarter, after being net sellers in the first half of 2021.</p>

<p>The sector received three consecutive months of net institutional inflows from July to September 2021, amounting to S$270 million.</p>

<p>Retail investors continue to be net buyers of the sector since the start of the year, with the exception of July, which saw net retail outflows of S$95 million. In the year to date, retail investors net buying activities in the sector totalled S$917 million.<br><br>
There are four trusts that received net inflows from both institutional and retail investors in the year-to-date: Frasers Logistics &amp; Commercial Trust (institutional: S$16.4 million; retail: S$8.5 million) , Far East Hospitality Trust (institutional: S$8.2 million; retail: S$1.7 million), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (institutional: S$5.5 million; retail: S$9.7 million) and Prime US REIT (institutional: S$0.5 million; retail: S$12.8 million).</p>

<p>Top three performing sub-sectors for the 3Q2021 period are Industrial REITs (3.3 per cent total returns), Specialised REITs (2.9 per cent), and Diversified REITs (2.0 per cent). Top three performing sub-sectors in the year-to-date are Healthcare REITs (25.4 per cent total returns), Industrial REITs (21.0 per cent), and Office REITs (11.8 per cent).<br><br><strong><em>REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times,<a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/china-focused-s-reits-resilient-amid-onshore-property-focus"> </a><a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/third-quarter-wrap-sees-institutional-investors-return-to-s-reits">read </a>the original version.</em></strong></p>
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    Rebound in flows


The iEdge S-REIT Index ended the third quarter of 2021 relatively flat with 0.2 per cent total returns, in line with global REIT markets which declined towards the later half of the quarter due to steepening of yield curves. This brings the index year-to-date total returns to 4.5 per cent.

There are 20 trusts which outperformed the index in 3Q2021, including ten of the 11 trusts that entered the FTSE EPRA Nareit Global Developed Index following the most recent September review. The top five performing trusts, which were all recent index inclusions, were: OUE Commercial REIT (14.2 per cent), Starhill Global REIT (12.4 per cent), ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (10.1 per cent), Far East Hospitality Trust (9.9 per cent), and ESR-REIT (9.3 per cent). These five trusts received net institutional inflows of S$192 million and net retail outflows of S$89 million this quarter.

In the year-to-date, the five best performing trusts where: ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (60.2 per cent), Sabana REIT (34.3 per cent), Starhill Global REIT (32.6 per cent), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (28.4 per cent) and First REIT (27.8 per cent). These five trusts received net institutional inflows of S$132 million and net retail outflows of S$66 million in the year-to-date.  
Overall, institutional investors were net buyers of the S-Reits and property trusts sector in the third quarter, after being net sellers in the first half of 2021.

The sector received three consecutive months of net institutional inflows from July to September 2021, amounting to S$270 million.

Retail investors continue to be net buyers of the sector since the start of the year, with the exception of July, which saw net retail outflows of S$95 million. In the year to date, retail investors net buying activities in the sector totalled S$917 million.  
There are four trusts that received net inflows from both institutional and retail investors in the year-to-date: Frasers Logistics &amp; Commercial Trust (institutional: S$16.4 million; retail: S$8.5 million) , Far East Hospitality Trust (institutional: S$8.2 million; retail: S$1.7 million), Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (institutional: S$5.5 million; retail: S$9.7 million) and Prime US REIT (institutional: S$0.5 million; retail: S$12.8 million).

Top three performing sub-sectors for the 3Q2021 period are Industrial REITs (3.3 per cent total returns), Specialised REITs (2.9 per cent), and Diversified REITs (2.0 per cent). Top three performing sub-sectors in the year-to-date are Healthcare REITs (25.4 per cent total returns), Industrial REITs (21.0 per cent), and Office REITs (11.8 per cent).  REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



REIT Watch - Third quarter wrap sees institutional investors return to S-Reits

Frencken, iFAST & First Resources Among Most Consistent Gainers in 3Q21

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    <div class='content-caption'>Top 5 S-REITs with largest yoy increase in DPU for 1H2021</div>
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<p>As the earnings season conclude, REITs and Property Trusts listed in Singapore have announced financial results or published business updates for the period ending 30 June 2021. Of the S-REITs which declared distributions for the first half of calendar year 2021, average change in distribution per unit (DPU) increased by 36 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y).</p>

<p>The five S-REITs with the highest y-o-y DPU increments for the period Jan to Jun 2021 are: SPH REIT (228 per cent), Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (215 per cent), Starhill Global REIT (196 per cent), Ascott Residence Trust (95 per cent) and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (75 per cent).</p>

<p>SPH REIT declared a DPU of 1.38 Singapore cents for Q3 FY2021 ended 31 May, bringing its DPU for the period of Dec 2020 to May 2021 to 2.62 Singapore cents - a 228 per cent increase y-o-y. In its latest business update for 3Q FY2021, the REIT noted gradual recovery with improvements in gross revenue of 22.2 per cent y-o-y to S$209.6 million. This was led by recovery in performance across all assets while supported by additional quarter of contribution from Westfield Marion compared to the same period last year and a decrease in rent reliefs to Singapore and Australia eligible tenants.</p>

<p>Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (Sabana REIT) reported DPU of 1.48 Singapore cents for 1H 2021, representing a 215 per cent y-o-y increase. This was mainly due to the temporary retainment of 55.0 per cent of its distributable income in 1H 2020 to conserve capital. The REIT also reported a 14.1 per cent y-o-y increase in gross revenue, mainly due to higher contribution from New Tech Park, 23 Serangoon North Avenue 5 and 10 Changi South Street 2 on higher occupancy. During the period, Sabana REIT announced the removal of its Shari’ah compliance requirement in order to accommodate the changing profile of tenants and enhance its flexibility for the next phase of growth.</p>

<p>Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) reported 2H FY2020/2021 DPU of 2.07 Singapore cents, representing a y-o-y increase of 196 per cent, mainly due to the release of retained income for working capital requirements. SGREIT noted that gross revenue for the period increased 10.5 per cent y-o-y, resulting in a 20.2 per cent increase in its net property income (NPI). This was mainly attributed to lower rental assistance for eligible tenants affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the appreciation of the Australian dollar against the Singapore dollar.</p>

<p>Ascott Residence Trust (ART) raised its DPU for 1H 2021 by 95 per cent y-o-y, attributable to active portfolio optimisation. The trust noted that distributable income for 1H 2021 included a one-off partial distribution of divestment gains of S$20 million to share divestment gains with unitholders, replace income loss from divested assets and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on distributions.</p>

<p>CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) announced a DPU of 5.18 Singapore cents for 1H 2021, representing a 75 per cent increase y-o-y. The REIT reported a 103 per cent and 118 per cent y-o-y increase in gross revenue and NPI respectively. In 1H 2021, CICT granted S$18.9 million of rental waivers for tenants affected by COVID-19, particularly during Singapore’s first Phase 2 (Heightened Alert) from 16 May to 13 June 2021.<br><br><strong><em>For more research and information on Singapore’s REIT sector, visit <a href="https://www.sgx.com/research-education/sectors">sgx.com/research-education/sectors</a> for the monthly SREITs &amp; Property Trusts Chartbook</em></strong></p>
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    Top 5 S-REITs with largest yoy increase in DPU for 1H2021


As the earnings season conclude, REITs and Property Trusts listed in Singapore have announced financial results or published business updates for the period ending 30 June 2021. Of the S-REITs which declared distributions for the first half of calendar year 2021, average change in distribution per unit (DPU) increased by 36 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y).

The five S-REITs with the highest y-o-y DPU increments for the period Jan to Jun 2021 are: SPH REIT (228 per cent), Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (215 per cent), Starhill Global REIT (196 per cent), Ascott Residence Trust (95 per cent) and CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (75 per cent).

SPH REIT declared a DPU of 1.38 Singapore cents for Q3 FY2021 ended 31 May, bringing its DPU for the period of Dec 2020 to May 2021 to 2.62 Singapore cents - a 228 per cent increase y-o-y. In its latest business update for 3Q FY2021, the REIT noted gradual recovery with improvements in gross revenue of 22.2 per cent y-o-y to S$209.6 million. This was led by recovery in performance across all assets while supported by additional quarter of contribution from Westfield Marion compared to the same period last year and a decrease in rent reliefs to Singapore and Australia eligible tenants.

Sabana Shari'ah Compliant Industrial REIT (Sabana REIT) reported DPU of 1.48 Singapore cents for 1H 2021, representing a 215 per cent y-o-y increase. This was mainly due to the temporary retainment of 55.0 per cent of its distributable income in 1H 2020 to conserve capital. The REIT also reported a 14.1 per cent y-o-y increase in gross revenue, mainly due to higher contribution from New Tech Park, 23 Serangoon North Avenue 5 and 10 Changi South Street 2 on higher occupancy. During the period, Sabana REIT announced the removal of its Shari’ah compliance requirement in order to accommodate the changing profile of tenants and enhance its flexibility for the next phase of growth.

Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT) reported 2H FY2020/2021 DPU of 2.07 Singapore cents, representing a y-o-y increase of 196 per cent, mainly due to the release of retained income for working capital requirements. SGREIT noted that gross revenue for the period increased 10.5 per cent y-o-y, resulting in a 20.2 per cent increase in its net property income (NPI). This was mainly attributed to lower rental assistance for eligible tenants affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the appreciation of the Australian dollar against the Singapore dollar.

Ascott Residence Trust (ART) raised its DPU for 1H 2021 by 95 per cent y-o-y, attributable to active portfolio optimisation. The trust noted that distributable income for 1H 2021 included a one-off partial distribution of divestment gains of S$20 million to share divestment gains with unitholders, replace income loss from divested assets and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on distributions.

CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) announced a DPU of 5.18 Singapore cents for 1H 2021, representing a 75 per cent increase y-o-y. The REIT reported a 103 per cent and 118 per cent y-o-y increase in gross revenue and NPI respectively. In 1H 2021, CICT granted S$18.9 million of rental waivers for tenants affected by COVID-19, particularly during Singapore’s first Phase 2 (Heightened Alert) from 16 May to 13 June 2021.  For more research and information on Singapore’s REIT sector, visit sgx.com/research-education/sectors for the monthly SREITs &amp; Property Trusts Chartbook



REIT Watch - S-REITs release retained earnings, 1H2021 DPU up 36%

<p><em><strong>Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX.</strong> SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.</em></p>
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<h2>SG REITs 2Q2021 Review</h2>
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<h3>Overview</h3>
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<p>SG REITs outperformed the STI in 2Q2021. Total return of the SG REITs sector was 2.3% vs the STI’s - 0.4%. However, on the half year basis, SG REITs continued to underperform the STI. Total sector returns were 8.3% in 1H2021 as compared to STI’s 11.1%.</p>
<p>Over the course of 1H2021, SG REITs raised ~S$2.3 billion in various equity fund-raising exercises and an additional ~S$2.6 billion through debt issuance. Of which, Mapletree Industrial Trust raised the largest amount of approximately ~S$1.2 billion. Most of these fund-raising activities are related to asset acquisitions. SG REITs announced 20 acquisitions in 1H2021 valued at over ~S$6.5 billion. This could be partially explained by SG REITs taking advantage of the low interest rates environment and higher debt capacity as they look to diversify their geographical and earning exposure.</p>
<p>Singapore government bond yields have fallen slightly by 13bps to 1.46% while SG REITs average yield has fallen by 24bps since our last update. SG REITs are currently trading at average annualized yields of 5.64%, 418 bps above SG Government bond yields of 1.46%. Real yields are at ~5.01%.</p>
<p>The road to recovery continues to defer across the different REIT sectors, which is largely reflected by the rental conditions based on the latest announcements. In general, Industrial REITs, particularly those with logistics assets, such as Mapletree Logistics Trust (+2.2%) and ARA Logos Logistics Trust (+2.4%), have seen a positive rental reversion. Office assets are also faring better as countries gradually open up and more workers return back to office. Manulife US REIT, Prime US REIT, Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT and Elite Commercial REIT have all reported positive rental reversions as the US and UK take the first steps to return to normalcy. On the other hand, SG retail REITs continue to suffer as the country tightens its restriction measures sporadically. The hospitality REIT sector is affected by a lack of international tourists as RerPAR in 1H2021 continues to decline. However, ARA US Hospitality Trust has seen higher RerPAR as business travel resumes in the US. Overall, assets valuation has picked up as more REITS reported higher AUM as compared to the last reported figures.</p>
<p>The COVID pandemic continues to pose as a big threat to the REIT sector. However, as Singapore achieves its vaccination target and gradually reopens its city-state, we foresee that the resumption of business activities will greatly boost the overall REIT sector in the second half of the year. Potential border re-opening should also help to lift the hospitality sector, although this will likely to come at a later stage as new virus variants result in new waves of COVID infections in different countries.</p>
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Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX. SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external contributors. Please refer to the Disclaimer in the attached report.




SG REITs 2Q2021 Review








Overview




SG REITs outperformed the STI in 2Q2021. Total return of the SG REITs sector was 2.3% vs the STI’s - 0.4%. However, on the half year basis, SG REITs continued to underperform the STI. Total sector returns were 8.3% in 1H2021 as compared to STI’s 11.1%.
Over the course of 1H2021, SG REITs raised ~S$2.3 billion in various equity fund-raising exercises and an additional ~S$2.6 billion through debt issuance. Of which, Mapletree Industrial Trust raised the largest amount of approximately ~S$1.2 billion. Most of these fund-raising activities are related to asset acquisitions. SG REITs announced 20 acquisitions in 1H2021 valued at over ~S$6.5 billion. This could be partially explained by SG REITs taking advantage of the low interest rates environment and higher debt capacity as they look to diversify their geographical and earning exposure.
Singapore government bond yields have fallen slightly by 13bps to 1.46% while SG REITs average yield has fallen by 24bps since our last update. SG REITs are currently trading at average annualized yields of 5.64%, 418 bps above SG Government bond yields of 1.46%. Real yields are at ~5.01%.
The road to recovery continues to defer across the different REIT sectors, which is largely reflected by the rental conditions based on the latest announcements. In general, Industrial REITs, particularly those with logistics assets, such as Mapletree Logistics Trust (+2.2%) and ARA Logos Logistics Trust (+2.4%), have seen a positive rental reversion. Office assets are also faring better as countries gradually open up and more workers return back to office. Manulife US REIT, Prime US REIT, Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT and Elite Commercial REIT have all reported positive rental reversions as the US and UK take the first steps to return to normalcy. On the other hand, SG retail REITs continue to suffer as the country tightens its restriction measures sporadically. The hospitality REIT sector is affected by a lack of international tourists as RerPAR in 1H2021 continues to decline. However, ARA US Hospitality Trust has seen higher RerPAR as business travel resumes in the US. Overall, assets valuation has picked up as more REITS reported higher AUM as compared to the last reported figures.
The COVID pandemic continues to pose as a big threat to the REIT sector. However, as Singapore achieves its vaccination target and gradually reopens its city-state, we foresee that the resumption of business activities will greatly boost the overall REIT sector in the second half of the year. Potential border re-opening should also help to lift the hospitality sector, although this will likely to come at a later stage as new virus variants result in new waves of COVID infections in different countries.









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    <div class='content-caption'>Institutional investors net fund flow in SREITS</div>
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<html><body><p>There are seven S-Reits in the Straits Times Index (STI), making up close to 14 per cent of the benchmark.<br><br>
The seven S-Reits generated an average total return of 5.2 per cent in the third quarter-to-date till Aug 5, outperforming the STI which gained 1.6 per cent over the same period.<br><br>
Keppel DC REIT (+6.8 per cent), Ascendas REIT (+6.8 per cent) and Mapletree Industrial Trust (+6.1 per cent) were the top three S-REITs performers in the STI.<br><br>
The sector's outperformance was not limited to S-Reits within the STI, but also extended to the broader S-Reits and property trusts sector in Singapore. The iEdge S-Reit Index generated a total return of 3.6 per cent since the end of June, which is more than double that of the STI's 1.6 per cent gains.<br><br>
In July 2021, institutional investors were net buyers of the sector with net inflows of S$54.1 million, after being net sellers for six consecutive months in 2021.<br><br>
ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (+S$46.7 million), Keppel REIT (+S$25.8 million), OUE Commercial REIT (+S$19.1 million), Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (+S$17.2 million) and Starhill Global REIT (+S$14.4 million) were the top five S-REITs that received the highest net institutional inflows in the first seven months of 2021.<br><br>
Starhill Global Reit (SGReit) announced that its full year gross revenue grew 0.3 per cent year on year (yoy) to S$181.3 million in FY20/21. Its net property income (NPI) increased by 2.0 per cent yoy to S$134.7 million in FY20/21. The Reit's FY20/21 distribution per unit (DPU) grew 33.4 per cent yoy to 3.95 cents. SGReit noted that despite the uncertainty of the Covid-19 situation, its retail portfolio occupancy, based on committed leases, remained stable at 97.5 per cent as at June 30, 2021.<br><br>
On Aug 4, Lendlease Global Commercial Reit (LReit) completed the acquisition of 53 per cent interest in Lendlease Jem Partners Fund and will make a further announcement on the status of the acquisition of a 5 per cent interest in Lendlease Asian Retail Investment Fund 3.<br><br>
Upon completion of these acquisitions, LReit will hold an effective indirect interest of up to 31.8 per cent in Jem. LReit is scheduled to report its full year financial results on Aug 10, 2021.<br><br>
OUE Commercial Reit (OUE C-Reit) reported a 3.1 per cent decline in NPI for 2021 due to the completion of divestment of a 50 per cent interest in OUE Bayfront in March 2021.<br><br>
The performance of OUE Bayfront is no longer consolidated and is recognised as share of joint venture results.<br><br>
With lower interest expense and including the share of joint venture results from OUE Bayfront, the amount available for distribution to OUE C-Reit's unitholders in H1 2021 was 3.0 per cent higher yoy, translating to a DPU of 1.23 cents, which is 23.0 per cent higher yoy.<br><br><strong><em>REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, <a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/institutional-investors-return-to-s-reits-in-q32021">read </a>the original version.</em></strong></p></body></html>



      
    
    Institutional investors net fund flow in SREITS

There are seven S-Reits in the Straits Times Index (STI), making up close to 14 per cent of the benchmark.  
The seven S-Reits generated an average total return of 5.2 per cent in the third quarter-to-date till Aug 5, outperforming the STI which gained 1.6 per cent over the same period.  
Keppel DC REIT (+6.8 per cent), Ascendas REIT (+6.8 per cent) and Mapletree Industrial Trust (+6.1 per cent) were the top three S-REITs performers in the STI.  
The sector's outperformance was not limited to S-Reits within the STI, but also extended to the broader S-Reits and property trusts sector in Singapore. The iEdge S-Reit Index generated a total return of 3.6 per cent since the end of June, which is more than double that of the STI's 1.6 per cent gains.  
In July 2021, institutional investors were net buyers of the sector with net inflows of S$54.1 million, after being net sellers for six consecutive months in 2021.  
ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (+S$46.7 million), Keppel REIT (+S$25.8 million), OUE Commercial REIT (+S$19.1 million), Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (+S$17.2 million) and Starhill Global REIT (+S$14.4 million) were the top five S-REITs that received the highest net institutional inflows in the first seven months of 2021.  
Starhill Global Reit (SGReit) announced that its full year gross revenue grew 0.3 per cent year on year (yoy) to S$181.3 million in FY20/21. Its net property income (NPI) increased by 2.0 per cent yoy to S$134.7 million in FY20/21. The Reit's FY20/21 distribution per unit (DPU) grew 33.4 per cent yoy to 3.95 cents. SGReit noted that despite the uncertainty of the Covid-19 situation, its retail portfolio occupancy, based on committed leases, remained stable at 97.5 per cent as at June 30, 2021.  
On Aug 4, Lendlease Global Commercial Reit (LReit) completed the acquisition of 53 per cent interest in Lendlease Jem Partners Fund and will make a further announcement on the status of the acquisition of a 5 per cent interest in Lendlease Asian Retail Investment Fund 3.  
Upon completion of these acquisitions, LReit will hold an effective indirect interest of up to 31.8 per cent in Jem. LReit is scheduled to report its full year financial results on Aug 10, 2021.  
OUE Commercial Reit (OUE C-Reit) reported a 3.1 per cent decline in NPI for 2021 due to the completion of divestment of a 50 per cent interest in OUE Bayfront in March 2021.  
The performance of OUE Bayfront is no longer consolidated and is recognised as share of joint venture results.  
With lower interest expense and including the share of joint venture results from OUE Bayfront, the amount available for distribution to OUE C-Reit's unitholders in H1 2021 was 3.0 per cent higher yoy, translating to a DPU of 1.23 cents, which is 23.0 per cent higher yoy.  REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.


REIT Watch - Institutional investors return to S-Reits in Q32021

Singapore

Starhill Global REIT is a Singapore-based real estate investment trust that invests in a portfolio of retail and office properties. It owns nine mid- to high-end assets across Singapore, Australia, Malaysia, Japan, and China, generating revenue primarily from leasing. The company was established in 2005 and is headquartered in Singapore.

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Starhill Global REIT (SGREIT SP)

REIT Watch - Third quarter wrap sees institutional investors return to S-Reits

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Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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As the earnings season conclude, REITs and Property Trusts listed in Singapore have announced financial results or published...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

(Non-SGX Report) SG REITs 2Q2021 Review

Non- SGX Report: These equity research reports are not written by the SGX. SGX supports the distribution of the research reports by external...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

REIT Watch - Institutional investors return to S-Reits in Q32021

There are seven S-Reits in the Straits Times Index (STI), making up close to 14 per cent of the benchmark. The seven S-Reits...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

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