External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Steel Q2FY23 Preview – Margins to hit a trough: We expect Steel companies under our coverage to deliver weak Q2FY23 numbers.</li><li>Revenue is likely to decline YoY mainly due to 1) Lower sales realisation on account of lower steel prices (domestic Steel HRC prices have corrected by 25% from the peak in Apr’22), 2) Weak exports due to the 15% export duty imposed from May’22, the lower sales realisation will be only partially offset by 3) QoQ increase in sales volumes led by re-stocking by traders as Q1FY23 sales volumes were impacted by sharp de-stocking by traders.</li><li>We expect EBITDA to show a steeper fall in Q2FY23, a de-growth of ~40% QoQ and ~65% YoY, primarily on account of a fall in the topline and higher coking coal consumption costs in the quarter.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Steel Q2FY23 Preview – Margins to hit a trough: We expect Steel companies under our coverage to deliver weak Q2FY23 numbers.Revenue is likely to decline YoY mainly due to 1) Lower sales realisation on account of lower steel prices (domestic Steel HRC prices have corrected by 25% from the peak in Apr’22), 2) Weak exports due to the 15% export duty imposed from May’22, the lower sales realisation will be only partially offset by 3) QoQ increase in sales volumes led by re-stocking by traders as Q1FY23 sales volumes were impacted by sharp de-stocking by traders.We expect EBITDA to show a steeper fall in Q2FY23, a de-growth of ~40% QoQ and ~65% YoY, primarily on account of a fall in the topline and higher coking coal consumption costs in the quarter.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Domestic HRC Steel prices have corrected by 27% since the peak seen in the 1st week of Apr’22.</li><li>This has been on account of the weakness in the global, domestic demand and lower exports.</li><li>With the monsoon coming to an end, traders will focus on restocking which will gain momentum once the prices stabilize and bottom out.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Domestic HRC Steel prices have corrected by 27% since the peak seen in the 1st week of Apr’22.This has been on account of the weakness in the global, domestic demand and lower exports.With the monsoon coming to an end, traders will focus on restocking which will gain momentum once the prices stabilize and bottom out.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Steel Sector Outlook - Domestic Demand Revival A Key to Drive the Steel Sector

<ul><li>We expect Metals and Steel companies under our coverage to deliver robust Revenue/EBITDA growth on a YoY basis, primarily on account of strong underlying commodity prices and robust sales volumes</li><li>As the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, the market priced in the risk of supply disruption emerging from the conflict and consequently, aluminium and steel prices rallied further QoQ.</li><li>The companies’ EBITDA margins, however, are expected to remain flattish or marginally decline YoY and QoQ mainly due to higher coal and energy prices. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect Metals and Steel companies under our coverage to deliver robust Revenue/EBITDA growth on a YoY basis, primarily on account of strong underlying commodity prices and robust sales volumesAs the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated, the market priced in the risk of supply disruption emerging from the conflict and consequently, aluminium and steel prices rallied further QoQ.The companies’ EBITDA margins, however, are expected to remain flattish or marginally decline YoY and QoQ mainly due to higher coal and energy prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metals and Mining: Strong Commodity Prices to Drive Profitability; Deleveraging to Continue

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<h2>Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running</h2>
<ul>
<li>
OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.</li>
<li>
At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.</li>
<li>Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.</li>
<li>
Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.</li>
</ul>

Eight new names, SoftBank remains for the 3rd quarter running


OurQ2-2021 All Cap High-Risk screen of stocks produced a market cap-weighted average price decline of 2%. In comparison, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index posted a decline of 1.7% over the same period. The stock quality of our Q2 2021 decreased 2.4 points or 3.8% over the period. Within the mix of 34 stocks in our Q2 2021 (May) list 19 posted negative performance, with an average decline of 14.1%.

At a static number of 34 stocks our Q3 2021 screen, delivers an interesting composition this quarter, with eight (8) new names and strong representation from Hong Kong in terms of geography and Industrials and Basic Materials from a sector perspective. This suggests that the “reopening of the economy” trade may have run its course for now.
Our Q3 2021 screen shows a further reduction in average stock rank (a reading on relative quality amongst the broad market peers with 100 being the highest) to 61 from 65.18 in Q2 2021.

Stock specific focus: We discuss why SoftBank stands out as a stock that presents with additional risk. We also discuss the fact that whilst there is a high representation of Industrials in the list, within this list, there are several names that may warrant not being too bearish towards.


Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.

Whilst Q4's list posted strong price performance it was a case that a rising tide floated most boats. As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. In Q1, the Altman Z score is at a market-cap-weighted 1.03 times, a significant decrease on the 1.52 in Q4. This deterioration needs to be monitored since earnings continue to be adjusted by analysts and their limited visibility of any bottoming. 25 stocks appear in our Q1 2021 screen, versus 15 in Q4 2020.

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

India

Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) is a Maharatna public sector undertaking and one of India's largest steel-making companies. It produces a wide range of steel products, including flat and long steel products, wire rods, plates, and railway products, catering to sectors like infrastructure, railways, automotive, and defense. The company is headquartered in New Delhi, India, and was incorporated on January 24, 1973.

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Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

Metals & Mining Q2FY23 Results Preview

Steel Q2FY23 Preview – Margins to hit a trough: We expect Steel companies under our coverage to deliver weak Q2FY23 numbers.

Axis Direct

Steel Sector Outlook - Domestic Demand Revival A Key to Drive the Steel Sector

Domestic HRC Steel prices have corrected by 27% since the peak seen in the 1st week of Apr’22. This has been on account of the weakness in the...

Axis Direct

Metals and Mining: Strong Commodity Prices to Drive Profitability; Deleveraging to Continue

We expect Metals and Steel companies under our coverage to deliver robust Revenue/EBITDA growth on a YoY basis, primarily on account of strong...

Axis Direct

Screening the Silk Road: Q3 2021 High-Risk Names to Avoid

Screening the Silk Road Q3 2021: Asia Pac High-risk names to avoid screening is out now. Eight new names, despite being down 23%, SoftBank remains...

David Lepper

Screening the Silk Road: Q1 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

As in the previous few quarters, we are on the watch for the risk of deteriorating credit metrics, but in particular during H1 2021. 25 stocks...

David Lepper

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