External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24 and lower-than-expected Alumina sales.</li><li>Hindalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT dropped by -9%/-27%/-40% YoY and de-grew/grew by -5%/-2%/+2% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.</li><li>LME Aluminium prices declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24, which were partially offset by higher-than-expected metal shipments (Copper and Aluminium shipments beat our estimates) which led to beat on our estimates.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices which declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24 and lower-than-expected Alumina sales.Hindalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT dropped by -9%/-27%/-40% YoY and de-grew/grew by -5%/-2%/+2% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium prices.LME Aluminium prices declined by 22%/5% YoY/QoQ in Q1FY24, which were partially offset by higher-than-expected metal shipments (Copper and Aluminium shipments beat our estimates) which led to beat on our estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Equity Bottom-Up

Steel Authority of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>SAIL’s Revenue and EBITDA stood largely in line with our estimates.</li><li>Revenue stood at Rs 24,359 Cr, (up 1% YoY, down 16% QoQ) a slight beat of 1% against our estimate due to slightly higher sales realisation, ~2% ahead of our assumption.</li><li>SAIL has reported its saleable steel sales volumes earlier at ~3.9MT (up 23% YoY, down 17% QoQ). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

SAIL’s Revenue and EBITDA stood largely in line with our estimates.Revenue stood at Rs 24,359 Cr, (up 1% YoY, down 16% QoQ) a slight beat of 1% against our estimate due to slightly higher sales realisation, ~2% ahead of our assumption.SAIL has reported its saleable steel sales volumes earlier at ~3.9MT (up 23% YoY, down 17% QoQ). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Sail - Next Phase of Capex Raises Concerns

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Steel Q1FY24 Preview: For steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect margins to contract QoQ due to lower sales volume and elevated input coking coal consumption costs, offsetting higher realisations.</li><li>On a YoY basis, too, margins are expected to contract despite higher volumes YoY (on a low base) as HRC prices are now down by 15% YoY from the near peak of the last year.</li><li>We expect revenues to decline QoQ on account of lower sales which will offset the slightly higher realisations on a QoQ basis. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Steel Q1FY24 Preview: For steel companies under our coverage (Tata Steel and SAIL), we expect margins to contract QoQ due to lower sales volume and elevated input coking coal consumption costs, offsetting higher realisations.On a YoY basis, too, margins are expected to contract despite higher volumes YoY (on a low base) as HRC prices are now down by 15% YoY from the near peak of the last year.We expect revenues to decline QoQ on account of lower sales which will offset the slightly higher realisations on a QoQ basis. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>SAIL’s EBITDA/PAT missed ours and the street's estimates on account of the higher-than-expected employee and other expenses.</li><li>Revenue (2% miss, down 5% YoY) recovered by 16% QoQ led by steel sales volumes at 4.68MT which grew by 13% QoQ (down 1% YoY) and HRC prices which were up 5% QoQ (down 12% YoY).</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 2,924 Cr (down 33% YoY, up 41% QoQ) missed ours/consensus estimate by 22%/13%, led by higher employee and other expenses, which was only partially offset by lower RM costs.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

SAIL’s EBITDA/PAT missed ours and the street's estimates on account of the higher-than-expected employee and other expenses.Revenue (2% miss, down 5% YoY) recovered by 16% QoQ led by steel sales volumes at 4.68MT which grew by 13% QoQ (down 1% YoY) and HRC prices which were up 5% QoQ (down 12% YoY).EBITDA stood at Rs 2,924 Cr (down 33% YoY, up 41% QoQ) missed ours/consensus estimate by 22%/13%, led by higher employee and other expenses, which was only partially offset by lower RM costs.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SAIL - Decent Q4; Ambitious Sales Volume Target for FY24

India

Steel Authority of India Limited is an integrated steel manufacturing company. The Company's products include pig iron, steel ingots, liquid steel, alloy steel, special steel, stainless steel, ferro alloys, ERW pipes, spirally welded pipes, and calcium ammonium nitrate.  The Government of India is currently a majority shareholder in the company.

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Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

Metals & Mining: Q1FY24 Review

Nalco’s Revenue/EBITDA/PAT missed our estimates and dropped by 16%/32%/40% YoY and by 13%/22%/33% QoQ led by a drop in the average LME Aluminium...

Axis Direct

Sail - Next Phase of Capex Raises Concerns

Revenue stood at Rs 24,359 Cr, (up 1% YoY, down 16% QoQ) a slight beat of 1% against our estimate due to slightly higher sales realisation, ~2%...

Axis Direct

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Metals - Q1FY24 Earnings Preview

On a YoY basis, too, margins are expected to contract despite higher volumes YoY (on a low base) as HRC prices are now down by 15% YoY from the...

Axis Direct

SAIL - Decent Q4; Ambitious Sales Volume Target for FY24

SAIL’s EBITDA/PAT missed ours and the street's estimates on account of the higher-than-expected employee and other expenses.

Axis Direct

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