Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The steel market is tightening fast: demand is running ahead of production, while higher coking coal costs strengthen the case for price hikes.</li>
<li>Export momentum is broadening mills’ demand pool, with Asian markets emerging as an increasingly important outlet for Indian steelmakers.</li>
<li>Imports are the catch: rising Chinese inflows could put a ceiling on domestic prices, limiting how far mills can push realizations.</li>
</ul>


The steel market is tightening fast: demand is running ahead of production, while higher coking coal costs strengthen the case for price hikes.
Export momentum is broadening mills’ demand pool, with Asian markets emerging as an increasingly important outlet for Indian steelmakers.
Imports are the catch: rising Chinese inflows could put a ceiling on domestic prices, limiting how far mills can push realizations.


India’s Steel Market Turns Constructive, With Imports Emerging as the Wildcard

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>Premium hard-coking-coal averaged about USD 236/ton FOB Australia in Jan–July 2026, up 25% year on year, as Australian disruptions, Chinese supply losses and Middle East freight risks tightened the market.</li>
<li>India imports the overwhelming majority of metallurgical coking coal used by blast-furnace mills. Every USD 10/ton rise in coal can add roughly USD 7–9/ton to steelmaking costs.</li>
<li>The near-term earnings risk is concentrated in blast-furnace producers with weaker pricing power. Longer term, India’s capacity expansion deepens coking-coal exposure unless domestic washing and blending improve materially.</li>
</ul>


Premium hard-coking-coal averaged about USD 236/ton FOB Australia in Jan–July 2026, up 25% year on year, as Australian disruptions, Chinese supply losses and Middle East freight risks tightened the market.
India imports the overwhelming majority of metallurgical coking coal used by blast-furnace mills. Every USD 10/ton rise in coal can add roughly USD 7–9/ton to steelmaking costs.
The near-term earnings risk is concentrated in blast-furnace producers with weaker pricing power. Longer term, India’s capacity expansion deepens coking-coal exposure unless domestic washing and blending improve materially.


How Rising Coking Coal Prices Impacting Indian Steel Producers?

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Steel Authority of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Steady operations despite price softness; volumes up 8% YoY, debt down ₹3,400 Cr, margins stable around 10%.</li>
<li>Capex on track; IISCO ₹33,000 Cr expansion progressing, funded via internal accruals and moderate leverage.</li>
<li>Valuation reasonable; trades at ~7× EV/EBITDA and ~US$560/t EV/Ton with Positive Bias on margin recovery and balance-sheet strength.</li>
</ul>


Steady operations despite price softness; volumes up 8% YoY, debt down ₹3,400 Cr, margins stable around 10%.
Capex on track; IISCO ₹33,000 Cr expansion progressing, funded via internal accruals and moderate leverage.
Valuation reasonable; trades at ~7× EV/EBITDA and ~US$560/t EV/Ton with Positive Bias on margin recovery and balance-sheet strength.


SAIL: Leaner, Stronger, Poised for Recovery — Margins to Rebound in H2

<ul>
<li>The Indian steel industry faced a highly disappointing 9MFY26 driven by multi-year low prices, persistent Chinese dumping, and severely delayed post-monsoon infrastructure restocking. </li>
<li>A robust Q4FY26 turnaround is now highly expected, driven by a sharp rebound in domestic realisations and condensed pent-up pre-monsoon project execution demand. </li>
<li>However, this bullish outlook faces significant downside risks post Q4FY26 from sequential coking coal inflation threatening margins and escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains.</li>
</ul>


The Indian steel industry faced a highly disappointing 9MFY26 driven by multi-year low prices, persistent Chinese dumping, and severely delayed post-monsoon infrastructure restocking. 
A robust Q4FY26 turnaround is now highly expected, driven by a sharp rebound in domestic realisations and condensed pent-up pre-monsoon project execution demand. 
However, this bullish outlook faces significant downside risks post Q4FY26 from sequential coking coal inflation threatening margins and escalating geopolitical tensions disrupting global supply chains.


India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

<ul>
<li>On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.</li>
<li>This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.</li>
<li>With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.</li>
</ul>


On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.
This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.
With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.


Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

India

Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) is a Maharatna public sector undertaking and one of India's largest steel-making companies. It produces a wide range of steel products, including flat and long steel products, wire rods, plates, and railway products, catering to sectors like infrastructure, railways, automotive, and defense. The company is headquartered in New Delhi, India, and was incorporated on January 24, 1973.

Price Gauge
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Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

India’s Steel Market Turns Constructive, With Imports Emerging as the Wildcard

Consumption is leaving production behind in India’s steel market, with the widening gap adding fresh momentum to the price outlook.

Mint Finance

How Rising Coking Coal Prices Impacting Indian Steel Producers?

The headline is a 25% YoY rise in premium hard coking-coal prices during the first seven months of 2026. How this will impact the Indian steel...

Nimish Maheshwari

SAIL: Leaner, Stronger, Poised for Recovery — Margins to Rebound in H2

Steel company maintains steady operations with increased volumes and reduced debt, progressing with capex expansion while trading at reasonable...

Rahul Jain

India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India’s Steel Market Turns Constructive, With Imports Emerging as the Wildcard

Consumption is leaving production behind in India’s steel market, with the widening gap adding fresh momentum to the price outlook.

Mint Finance

How Rising Coking Coal Prices Impacting Indian Steel Producers?

The headline is a 25% YoY rise in premium hard coking-coal prices during the first seven months of 2026. How this will impact the Indian steel...

Nimish Maheshwari

SAIL: Leaner, Stronger, Poised for Recovery — Margins to Rebound in H2

​Steel company maintains steady operations with increased volumes and reduced debt, progressing with capex expansion while trading at reasonable...

Rahul Jain

India Steel Industry: Should We Expect a Turnaround from Q4FY26?

​Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

​Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Steel company maintains steady operations with increased volumes and reduced debt, progressing with capex expansion while trading at reasonable...

Indian steel industry had a tough 9MFY26 but is expected to see a turnaround in Q4FY26, though risks remain due to coking coal inflation and...

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...