Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Steel Authority of India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Steady operations despite price softness; volumes up 8% YoY, debt down ₹3,400 Cr, margins stable around 10%.</li>
<li>Capex on track; IISCO ₹33,000 Cr expansion progressing, funded via internal accruals and moderate leverage.</li>
<li>Valuation reasonable; trades at ~7× EV/EBITDA and ~US$560/t EV/Ton with Positive Bias on margin recovery and balance-sheet strength.</li>
</ul>


Steady operations despite price softness; volumes up 8% YoY, debt down ₹3,400 Cr, margins stable around 10%.
Capex on track; IISCO ₹33,000 Cr expansion progressing, funded via internal accruals and moderate leverage.
Valuation reasonable; trades at ~7× EV/EBITDA and ~US$560/t EV/Ton with Positive Bias on margin recovery and balance-sheet strength.


SAIL: Leaner, Stronger, Poised for Recovery — Margins to Rebound in H2

<ul>
<li>SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways</li>
<li>Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs</li>
<li>SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.</li>
</ul>


SAIL has been a consistent under-performer despite having huge iron ore reserves, multi-location steel plants and wide product spectrum and exclusive sales to Indian Railways
Legacy plants, ageing manpower and operational inefficiencies have resulted in slower growth compared to peers and a significant loss in overall market share, high inventories and single digit RoEs
SAIL trades at 0.8x P/B, in line with history, but weak volume visibility and elevated debt warrant a deeper discount—0.6x book better reflects risk-reward, in our view.


Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) steel prices slumped to five-year lows in October 2025 due to rampant dumping, even as government capex accelerates and post-monsoon demand revives.</li>
<li>The immediate policy response imposing Anti-Dumping Duty (ADD) is critical, providing a necessary margin shield for domestic producers to execute their aggressive Rs. 1 lakh crore+ capacity expansion plans. 
</li>
<li>India positioned as the only major structural demand story globally, the current price weakness offers a tactical entry point into companies focused on high-quality domestic execution and raw material integration. 
</li>
</ul>


Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC) steel prices slumped to five-year lows in October 2025 due to rampant dumping, even as government capex accelerates and post-monsoon demand revives.
The immediate policy response imposing Anti-Dumping Duty (ADD) is critical, providing a necessary margin shield for domestic producers to execute their aggressive Rs. 1 lakh crore+ capacity expansion plans. 

India positioned as the only major structural demand story globally, the current price weakness offers a tactical entry point into companies focused on high-quality domestic execution and raw material integration. 



From Cyclical Low to Structural Boom: The Policy Shield for India's Steel Giants.

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

<ul>
<li>The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.</li>
<li>This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.</li>
<li>While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.</li>
</ul>


The government's 300 MT crude steel capacity target by 2030 is now in full swing, anchored by ArcelorMittal's newly-cleared INR1.5 lakh crore greenfield project and aggressive brownfield by other players.
This signals a multi-lakh-crore capex super-cycle, moving from planning to execution. The 14-month fast-track approval for AM/NS in Andhra Pradesh provides a new, de-risked template for mega-projects.
While execution is accelerating, the sector's profitability hinges on two key variables: managing persistent Chinese imports and securing the massive volume of coking coal required to fuel this expansion.


Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

<ul>
<li>China’s steel exports have surged to multi-year highs, flooding global markets and forcing a wave of trade-defense actions across Asia.</li>
<li>Weak domestic demand, squeezed margins, and policy shifts have pushed Chinese mills to lean heavily on exports — prompting Beijing to cap output and link cuts to carbon goals.</li>
<li>Clear winners: Integrated Indian producers and Japan/Korea premium mills, which gain pricing power and margin upside as safeguards and curbs tighten supply.</li>
</ul>


China’s steel exports have surged to multi-year highs, flooding global markets and forcing a wave of trade-defense actions across Asia.
Weak domestic demand, squeezed margins, and policy shifts have pushed Chinese mills to lean heavily on exports — prompting Beijing to cap output and link cuts to carbon goals.
Clear winners: Integrated Indian producers and Japan/Korea premium mills, which gain pricing power and margin upside as safeguards and curbs tighten supply.


China’s Steel Curbs + Asian Safeguards: Pricing Tailwinds for Premium Mills

India

Steel Authority of India Limited is an integrated steel manufacturing company. The Company's products include pig iron, steel ingots, liquid steel, alloy steel, special steel, stainless steel, ferro alloys, ERW pipes, spirally welded pipes, and calcium ammonium nitrate.  The Government of India is currently a majority shareholder in the company.

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Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

SAIL: Leaner, Stronger, Poised for Recovery — Margins to Rebound in H2

Steel company maintains steady operations with increased volumes and reduced debt, progressing with capex expansion while trading at reasonable...

Rahul Jain

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

Despite its vast resources, SAIL's operational inefficiencies have led to underperformance and a loss in market share. A deeper discount on its...

Rahul Jain

From Cyclical Low to Structural Boom: The Policy Shield for India's Steel Giants.

Domestic HRC steel prices hit five-year lows in October 2025 due to dumping, but policy response and demand revival offer growth opportunities for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

China’s Steel Curbs + Asian Safeguards: Pricing Tailwinds for Premium Mills

China's steel exports surge, prompting trade-defense actions; Indian and Japanese/Korean mills benefit from tightening supply.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SAIL: Leaner, Stronger, Poised for Recovery — Margins to Rebound in H2

​Steel company maintains steady operations with increased volumes and reduced debt, progressing with capex expansion while trading at reasonable...

Rahul Jain

Steel Authority of India: Weak on Expansion

​Despite its vast resources, SAIL's operational inefficiencies have led to underperformance and a loss in market share. A deeper discount on its...

Rahul Jain

From Cyclical Low to Structural Boom: The Policy Shield for India's Steel Giants.

​Domestic HRC steel prices hit five-year lows in October 2025 due to dumping, but policy response and demand revival offer growth opportunities for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: Forging a 300 MT Behemoth as India’s Steel Capex Super-Cycle Accelerates

​Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

Nimish Maheshwari

China’s Steel Curbs + Asian Safeguards: Pricing Tailwinds for Premium Mills

​China's steel exports surge, prompting trade-defense actions; Indian and Japanese/Korean mills benefit from tightening supply.

Rahul Jain

Steel company maintains steady operations with increased volumes and reduced debt, progressing with capex expansion while trading at reasonable...

Despite its vast resources, SAIL's operational inefficiencies have led to underperformance and a loss in market share. A deeper discount on its...

Domestic HRC steel prices hit five-year lows in October 2025 due to dumping, but policy response and demand revival offer growth opportunities for...

Government's ambitious steel capacity target by 2030 gains momentum with ArcelorMittal's massive greenfield project and industry-wide capex super...

China's steel exports surge, prompting trade-defense actions; Indian and Japanese/Korean mills benefit from tightening supply.