Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-total-gas-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28352:1" rel="noopener">Adani Total Gas (ATGL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">IRCTC (IRCTC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis (MPHL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/motherson-sumi-systems-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10662:1" rel="noopener">Samvardhana Motherson (MSS IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shree-cement-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10531:1" rel="noopener">Shree Cement (SRCM IN)</a> are adds.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:245:1" rel="noopener">Adani Enterprises (ADE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jubilant-foodworks-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:986:1" rel="noopener">Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lupin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17910:1" rel="noopener">Lupin (LPC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7297:1" rel="noopener">Mindtree (MTCL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/punjab-national-bank" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:542:1" rel="noopener">Punjab National Bank (PNB)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/steel-authority-of-india" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14323:1" rel="noopener">Steel Authority of India (SAIL)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> are deletes.</li>
<li>There is significant impact on a lot of the stocks in terms of days of delivery volume to trade. Given the index is overlooked, there could be significant price movements. </li>
</ul>



Adani Total Gas (ATGL IN), Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Hindustan Aeronautics (HNAL IN), IRCTC (IRCTC IN), Mphasis (MPHL IN), Samvardhana Motherson (MSS IN) and Shree Cement (SRCM IN) are adds.

Adani Enterprises (ADE IN), Jubilant Foodworks (JUBI IN), Lupin (LPC IN), Mindtree (MTCL IN), Punjab National Bank (PNB), Steel Authority of India (SAIL) and Zydus Lifesciences (ZYDUSLIF IN) are deletes.
There is significant impact on a lot of the stocks in terms of days of delivery volume to trade. Given the index is overlooked, there could be significant price movements. 


NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Significant Impact for an Overlooked Index

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nmdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2016:1" rel="noopener">Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piramal-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14158:1" rel="noopener">Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)</a> at the close on 5 August.</li>
<li>In September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adani-wilmar" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34763:1" rel="noopener">Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indian-railway-catering-and-tourism-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33951:1" rel="noopener">Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindustan-aeronautics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26747:1" rel="noopener">Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mphasis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7672:1" rel="noopener">Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN)</a> are potential inclusions.</li>
<li>At over 4 days of deliverable volume to trade, the impact is especially large on  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-electronics-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6636:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Electronics (BHE IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zydus-lifesciences-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12914:1" rel="noopener">Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lupin-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17910:1" rel="noopener">Lupin Ltd (LPC IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN) and Tata Power (TPWR IN) will replace Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN) and Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) at the close on 5 August.
In September, Adani Wilmar (AWLTD IN), Indian Railway Catering and Tourism (IRCTC IN), Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HNAL IN) and Mphasis Ltd (MPHL IN) are potential inclusions.
At over 4 days of deliverable volume to trade, the impact is especially large on  Bharat Electronics (BHE IN), Zydus Lifesciences Ltd (ZYDUSLIF IN) and Lupin Ltd (LPC IN). 


NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/life-insurance-corp-of-india-lic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28829:1" rel="noopener">Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-100-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36051:1" rel="noopener">Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nmdc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2016:1" rel="noopener">Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a> and there will be no replacement in the index.</li>
<li>The NMDC deletion along with capping changes means that there is decent volume (and ADV) to buy on quite a few names in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cpse-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28191:1" rel="noopener">CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Life Insurance Corp of India (LIC) (LICI IN) and Tata Power (TPWR IN) will be added to the Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) and Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX). 

Nmdc Ltd (NMDC IN) will be deleted from the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN) and there will be no replacement in the index.
The NMDC deletion along with capping changes means that there is decent volume (and ADV) to buy on quite a few names in the CPSE ETF (CPSEBE IN).


NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.
We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.
Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.


India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

India

Steel Authority of India Limited is an integrated steel manufacturing company. The Company's products include pig iron, steel ingots, liquid steel, alloy steel, special steel, stainless steel, ferro alloys, ERW pipes, spirally welded pipes, and calcium ammonium nitrate.  The Government of India is currently a majority shareholder in the company.

Steel Authority of India (SAIL IN)

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

NIFTY NEXT50 Index Rebalance: Significant Impact for an Overlooked Index

There are 7 adds/deletes for the NIFTY NEXT50 Index. The adds have outperformed the deletes but there are significant days of delivery volume to...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in August, Then 5 More in September

There are two index changes at the close on 5 August, then there should be 5 more at the close on 29 September. Passive funds will have over 4-5...

Brian Freitas

NIFTY100 & CPSE Index Rebalance: Some Big Changes in 3 Weeks

LIC and Tata Power will be added to the NIFTY100 Index at the close on 5 August. NMDC is being deleted from the NIFTY100 & CPSE indices. There is a...

Brian Freitas

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

With 9 trading days to go in the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from Mid to Large and 7 stocks moving the other way. 2 new listings will be...

Brian Freitas