Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.</li>
<li>This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.</li>
</ul>


This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly.
This is one of the 16th-best quarters in SOXX since 2002. While it’s a pretty solid showing at a 17% quarterly return, this doesn’t compare to the incredible returns in 2020 and 2023.
Now, the misleading thing is that SMH, a broader ETF, is up 30%.


<ul><li>This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. </li><li>I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.</li><li>We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.</li></ul>

This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the biggest incremental softening in end market demand. That’s not surprising. I have been talking about the FIFO (First-In, First-Out) cycle, and the only two remaining segments that have not had a meaningful correction are Industrial and Automotive.We are now seeing the beginning of Industrial weakening.

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Consumption /In Depth: Where are Chinese consumers willing to spend?</li><li>AI /: China puts drafting AI law on national legislative agenda</li><li>Counterterrorism /: China, Pakistan and Iran hold first trilateral counterterrorism meeting</li></ul>

Consumption /In Depth: Where are Chinese consumers willing to spend?AI /: China puts drafting AI law on national legislative agendaCounterterrorism /: China, Pakistan and Iran hold first trilateral counterterrorism meeting

CX Daily: Where Are Chinese Consumers Willing to Spend?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Equity Capital Markets

Ingenic Semiconductor / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ingenic Semiconductor, a fabless memory and computing IC designer, is seeking an A+H listing. GTJA is the sole sponsor.</li>
<li>We look at the company's core segments: memory ICs and computing ICs.</li>
<li>We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on the A-H premium.</li>
</ul>


Ingenic Semiconductor, a fabless memory and computing IC designer, is seeking an A+H listing. GTJA is the sole sponsor.
We look at the company's core segments: memory ICs and computing ICs.
We discuss our preliminary thoughts on the company's valuation based on the A-H premium.


Ingenic Semiconductor (北京君正) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Switzerland

STMicroelectronics is a global leader in the semiconductor industry, specializing in the design, development, manufacturing, and marketing of a wide range of semiconductor products. Its key offerings include microcontrollers, sensors, power management ICs, analog ICs, and MEMS for automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics markets. The company is headquartered in Plan-les-Ouates, Geneva, Switzerland, and was founded in 1987.

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STMicroelectronics (STM US)

Fabricated Knowledge Quarterly Review

This is the first edition of a quarterly summary piece to highlight my ideas and best pieces quarterly. This is one of the 16th-best quarters in...

Fabricated Knowledge

Semiconductor Cycles: Industrial and EVs

Plus my new taxonomy of cycles! Where I think each end market is in the cycle. This earnings season, Industrial semiconductor demand has been the...

Fabricated Knowledge

CX Daily: Where Are Chinese Consumers Willing to Spend?

Consumption /In Depth: Where are Chinese consumers willing to spend? AI /: China puts drafting AI law on national legislative...

Caixin Global

Ingenic Semiconductor (北京君正) A+H Pre-IPO: Early Thoughts

Ingenic Semiconductor is seeking an A+H listing. In this note, we look at the company's business, its industry context and provide our early...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

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