Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Delta Electronics Thailand  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at the close on 30 June.</li>
<li>Capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.</li>
</ul>


In line with forecasts, there will be 4 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at the close on 30 June.
Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
Positioning appears to be a lot smaller in the adds compared to the deletes. There could be buying in the deletes on a drop in the stock price.


SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

<ul>
<li>With 8 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> in June.</li>
<li>Capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have drifted lower over the last 6 months and outperformed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET 50 Index</a> while the deletes have dropped a lot and underperformed the index.</li>
</ul>


With 8 trading days left in the review period, we forecast 3 changes for the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) in June.
Capping changes for Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) will result in big passive selling in the stock and funding inflows for the other index constituents.
The forecast adds have drifted lower over the last 6 months and outperformed the SET 50 Index while the deletes have dropped a lot and underperformed the index.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Capping DELTA & Constituent Changes

<ul>
<li>On 4 February, the SET floated a consultation paper on capping stocks in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> at 10%.</li>
<li>The move was aimed at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> since it was the only stock with an index weight higher than 10%.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-electronics-thailand-pcl-98806732-8ac4-42b2-a565-ba32673d1e5a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20912:1" rel="noopener">Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB)</a> has slid since then and at the current weight of 9.27% will not need to be capped. The market has adjusted for it.</li>
</ul>


On 4 February, the SET floated a consultation paper on capping stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) at 10%.
The move was aimed at Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) since it was the only stock with an index weight higher than 10%.

Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) has slid since then and at the current weight of 9.27% will not need to be capped. The market has adjusted for it.


SET50 Index: Market Moves Adjust for Consultation Proposal; DELTA in the Crosshairs (Again)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">SET50 INDEX</a> later this month following the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> merger.</li>
<li>Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.</li>
<li>Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vgi-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12409:1" rel="noopener">VGI PCL (VGI TB)</a> while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.</li>
</ul>



VGI PCL (VGI TB) could be added to the SET50 INDEX later this month following the Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB) / Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) merger.
Then there could be 3 or 4 more changes to the index at the June rebalance. The review period has just commenced so price moves will move the list around.
Passive trackers will need to buy around 1.85% of float in VGI PCL (VGI TB) while buying in the other stocks will be between 1-1.2% of float.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

<ul>
<li>We look at the performance of the index rebalance strategy over the year using weekly forecasts. In short, it has been a mixed bag for Asia.</li>
<li>India and China have been among the worst performing markets in the region while Australia and Korea have been among the better performers.</li>
<li>A lot of the outperformance appears to be front loaded, so getting the forecasts right early in the review period is of paramount importance.</li>
</ul>


We look at the performance of the index rebalance strategy over the year using weekly forecasts. In short, it has been a mixed bag for Asia.
India and China have been among the worst performing markets in the region while Australia and Korea have been among the better performers.
A lot of the outperformance appears to be front loaded, so getting the forecasts right early in the review period is of paramount importance.


Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia

Thailand

The Thailand SET 50 Index is a capitalization-weighted index based on the top 50 stocks listed on the Bangkok SET index having high market capitalizatin and high liquidity. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of August 16 1995

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)

SET50 Index Rebalance: Four Changes in Two Weeks; DELTA Capping Too

There are 4 changes, plus DELTA capping. Impact on the adds is bigger and positioning appears smaller. The deletes are down a lot and there could...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Capping DELTA & Constituent Changes

There should be 3 constituent changes in June and large selling in DELTA due to capping. Passive trackers will need to buy 1.5-3.8x ADV in the adds...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index: Market Moves Adjust for Consultation Proposal; DELTA in the Crosshairs (Again)

The SET is looking to cap stocks in the SET50/SET100 at 10% of the index weight. This is another attempt to curb DELTA's sway on the index. The...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: VGI Could Be an Ad Hoc Add; Then 3/4 More in June

VGI could be added to the index later this month following the GULF/INTUCH merger. Then there could be 3/4 more changes in June. The forecast adds...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance Strategy YTD Performance: Not Many Places to Hide in Asia

A positive start to the year for Asia index rebals has turned negative as the momentum/ value unwind began a few weeks ago. Higher volatility and a...

Brian Freitas