IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rex-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13845:1" rel="noopener">Rex Minerals (RXM AU)</a> IE considers MACH Metals Australia’s A$0.47 offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of the A$0.346 to A$0.484 valuation range. </li>
<li>The key conditions are shareholder and FIRB approvals. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Salim is the largest shareholder and the cordial Indonesia-Australia relations.</li>
<li>An attractive offer, medium retail ownership and no independent substantial shareholder ensures a done deal. At the last close and for the 30 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.3%/15.9%. </li>
</ul>


The Rex Minerals (RXM AU) IE considers MACH Metals Australia’s A$0.47 offer fair and reasonable as it is towards the upper end of the A$0.346 to A$0.484 valuation range. 
The key conditions are shareholder and FIRB approvals. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as Salim is the largest shareholder and the cordial Indonesia-Australia relations.
An attractive offer, medium retail ownership and no independent substantial shareholder ensures a done deal. At the last close and for the 30 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 3.3%/15.9%. 


Rex Minerals (RXM AU): Scheme Vote on 10 October

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Ord Minnett

Ord Minnett

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>AIS released a softer 3Q result where a confluence of events at Tritton, Jaguar and Mt Colin led to the Company to downgrading FY23 copper production (~6kt Cu) and EBITDA guidance (~A$50-70m).</li><li>Positively, this new revised copper production target was not too dissimilar to our target (FY23: 28-32kt Cu vs OMLe: ~30.6 Kt Cu) as we saw risks to the higher grade Budgerygar material coming online at Tritton.</li><li>We adjust our numbers to account for the revised guidance, taking a slightly more conservative approach at Tritton (17-18kt Cu vs OMLe:~16.9Kt Cu). </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

AIS released a softer 3Q result where a confluence of events at Tritton, Jaguar and Mt Colin led to the Company to downgrading FY23 copper production (~6kt Cu) and EBITDA guidance (~A$50-70m).Positively, this new revised copper production target was not too dissimilar to our target (FY23: 28-32kt Cu vs OMLe: ~30.6 Kt Cu) as we saw risks to the higher grade Budgerygar material coming online at Tritton.We adjust our numbers to account for the revised guidance, taking a slightly more conservative approach at Tritton (17-18kt Cu vs OMLe:~16.9Kt Cu). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aeris Resources Limited - 3Q23: Softer on Confluence of Events, FY23 Guidance Downgraded

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>AIS reported a slightly softer than expected 1H23 result, that came with a headline reduction in FY23 EBITDA guidance.</li><li>This ~A$60m downgrade reflects a softer 1H23 and should not be unexpected given quarterly disclosure.</li><li>Operational FY23 guidance remains unchanged, and we see no need to significantly alter our forward-looking physical estimates, however we highlight the risks at Tritton given the slower ramp-up at Budgerygar (vent delays as noted with the 2Q result). </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

AIS reported a slightly softer than expected 1H23 result, that came with a headline reduction in FY23 EBITDA guidance.This ~A$60m downgrade reflects a softer 1H23 and should not be unexpected given quarterly disclosure.Operational FY23 guidance remains unchanged, and we see no need to significantly alter our forward-looking physical estimates, however we highlight the risks at Tritton given the slower ramp-up at Budgerygar (vent delays as noted with the 2Q result). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aeris Resources Limited - Soft(Ish) Result with a Surprising Sell-Off....

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>AIS reported a weaker production result (vs OMLe) as assets were impacted by lower throughput / grade, which flowed to costs (A$/Ib basis).</li><li>The cash impact was mitigated by lower capital spend and a one-off ~$29m working capital injection.</li><li>Intrinsic LT value (0.7x P/NAV) in the stock remains high, however, deliverability in 2H23 is critical for investor confidence to see this discount unwind. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

AIS reported a weaker production result (vs OMLe) as assets were impacted by lower throughput / grade, which flowed to costs (A$/Ib basis).The cash impact was mitigated by lower capital spend and a one-off ~$29m working capital injection.Intrinsic LT value (0.7x P/NAV) in the stock remains high, however, deliverability in 2H23 is critical for investor confidence to see this discount unwind. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aeris Resources Limited - 2Q Slightly Softer

<ul><li>A softer start to the year than we expected with weaker performances at Tritton (paste pipe blockage) and Cracow (COVID absenteeism) detracting away from a strong performance at Jaguar.</li><li>Despite this slower start, management have retained FY23 guidance – we see the Company meeting the lower end of this production target as ore source optionality (and grade) improves at Tritton (i.e. Budgerygar and Avoca Tank) coupling with productivity enhancements (manning levels / grade) at Cracow.</li><li>Today’s performance (-18%) further adds to valuation appeal (0.4x P/NAV) – but we don’t expect this discount to unwind until the Company delivers in line with expectations.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

A softer start to the year than we expected with weaker performances at Tritton (paste pipe blockage) and Cracow (COVID absenteeism) detracting away from a strong performance at Jaguar.Despite this slower start, management have retained FY23 guidance – we see the Company meeting the lower end of this production target as ore source optionality (and grade) improves at Tritton (i.e. Budgerygar and Avoca Tank) coupling with productivity enhancements (manning levels / grade) at Cracow.Today’s performance (-18%) further adds to valuation appeal (0.4x P/NAV) – but we don’t expect this discount to unwind until the Company delivers in line with expectations.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Aeris Resources Limited - Slow Start at Tritton / Cracow

Australia

Aeris Resources Limited is a mining and exploration company. The Company explores, develops, mines, and produces copper. Aeris Resources conducts its business operations in Australia.

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Aeris Resources (AIS AU)

Rex Minerals (RXM AU): Scheme Vote on 10 October

An attractive offer, medium retail ownership and no independent substantial shareholder ensures a done deal. At last close and for the 30 October...

Arun George

Aeris Resources Limited - 3Q23: Softer on Confluence of Events, FY23 Guidance Downgraded

AIS released a softer 3Q result where a confluence of events at Tritton, Jaguar and Mt Colin led to the Company to downgrading FY23 copper...

Ord Minnett

Aeris Resources Limited - Soft(Ish) Result with a Surprising Sell-Off....

Operational FY23 guidance remains unchanged, and we see no need to significantly alter our forward-looking physical estimates, however we highlight...

Ord Minnett

Aeris Resources Limited - 2Q Slightly Softer

AIS reported a weaker production result (vs OMLe) as assets were impacted by lower throughput / grade, which flowed to costs (A$/Ib basis)

Ord Minnett

Aeris Resources Limited - Slow Start at Tritton / Cracow

Today’s performance (-18%) further adds to valuation appeal (0.4x P/NAV) – but we don’t expect this discount to unwind until the Company delivers...

Ord Minnett

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