European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

The moving parts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/veolia-environnement-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21568:1" rel="noopener">Veolia Environnement SA (VIE FP)</a> 's bear hug on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suez-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21546:1" rel="noopener">Suez (SEV FP)</a> start to fit in. Veolia wins the first round in this hostile bid by negotiating a purchase of 29.9% of Suez from Engie.
Nevertheless, a judge suspends Veolia's purchase of 29.9% of Engie's stake in Suez and says Suez's unions should be consulted. Veolia's purchase is not canceled, but delays the whole full takeover plan.
Let us remember that the whole chain of events was unleashed by Engie's plans to adopt a lighter balance-sheet. Subsequently, Veolia decided to make an offer for Engie's stake in Suez, and use it to launch a full takeover bid for Suez.
Its objective, if its rival does not sell assets or change the perimeter, is to pay 18 euros for the remaining shares, which values Suez ​​at €11,252 million.
Veolia is cannily putting now pressure on Suez (as it previously somehow did on Engie) and proposes to Suez to allow each party a period of 6 months ending on March 31st 2021, during which the both companies will undertake their best efforts to reach an agreement to successfully implement the project carried out by Veolia. The following stage would concern antitrust remedies, and the following one would be to line up the funds required for the full takeover bid.
Although this is a puzzle with several moving parts, Veolia appears to be strongly committed to the acquisition of Suez and to have a clear vision of a combined future. The implementation of Veolia's plans could give birth to a leading utility in the water and waste markets, with a pro-forma 2020 income of c. €43 bn (source Capital IQ consensus).
Suez is no longer trading on fundamentals. The mean implied equity value across multiples (source Capital IQ consensus), is €17.05 per share, vs. €18 per share offered by Suez, 5.5% more.
Completing the takeover will be long and cumbersome, expected to complete between end of Q3 2020 and en of Q1 2021), hence the 11.7% gross spread to the terms announced by Veolia
The bid would be likely to go ahead in my view, thus the recommendation is LONG Suez, target price €18 per share.

The moving parts of Veolia Environnement SA (VIE FP) 's bear hug on Suez (SEV FP) start to fit in. Veolia wins the first round in this hostile bid by negotiating a purchase of 29.9% of Suez from Engie.
Nevertheless, a judge suspends Veolia's purchase of 29.9% of Engie's stake in Suez and says Suez's unions should be consulted. Veolia's purchase is not canceled, but delays the whole full takeover plan.
Let us remember that the whole chain of events was unleashed by Engie's plans to adopt a lighter balance-sheet. Subsequently, Veolia decided to make an offer for Engie's stake in Suez, and use it to launch a full takeover bid for Suez.
Its objective, if its rival does not sell assets or change the perimeter, is to pay 18 euros for the remaining shares, which values Suez ​​at €11,252 million.
Veolia is cannily putting now pressure on Suez (as it previously somehow did on Engie) and proposes to Suez to allow each party a period of 6 months ending on March 31st 2021, during which the both companies will undertake their best efforts to reach an agreement to successfully implement the project carried out by Veolia. The following stage would concern antitrust remedies, and the following one would be to line up the funds required for the full takeover bid.
Although this is a puzzle with several moving parts, Veolia appears to be strongly committed to the acquisition of Suez and to have a clear vision of a combined future. The implementation of Veolia's plans could give birth to a leading utility in the water and waste markets, with a pro-forma 2020 income of c. €43 bn (source Capital IQ consensus).
Suez is no longer trading on fundamentals. The mean implied equity value across multiples (source Capital IQ consensus), is €17.05 per share, vs. €18 per share offered by Suez, 5.5% more.
Completing the takeover will be long and cumbersome, expected to complete between end of Q3 2020 and en of Q1 2021), hence the 11.7% gross spread to the terms announced by Veolia
The bid would be likely to go ahead in my view, thus the recommendation is LONG Suez, target price €18 per share.

Veolia - Suez Recap. Veolia Wins the First Round, but Suez's Unions Delay the Operation.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/veolia-environnement-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21568:1" rel="noopener">Veolia Environnement Sa (VIE FP)</a> announced on 30 August a firm offer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/engie-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21449:1" rel="noopener">Engie SA (ENGI FP)</a> to acquire a 29.9% stake of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suez-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21546:1" rel="noopener">Suez (SEV FP)</a> at €15.5 per share. If this offer is accepted by Engie, Veolia intends to launch a voluntary takeover offer for the remaining shares of Suez and estimates the process to last between 12 and 18 months. Veolia aims to create "the French World Champion of Ecological Transformation" and is banking on the increasing demand for water treatment and waste management services worldwide, especially in emerging markets.
<ul class="">
<li>Suez closed today (2 September) at €14.9 per share, a 3.8% absolute spread to the proposed takeover offer price.</li>
</ul>
Suez says that "the approach of Veolia has not been solicited and has not been discussed at all with Suez". But the announcement has almost surely all the blessings of the French government.
The transaction with Engie is highly likely to succeed, thus a full-on offer for Suez is to be expected. The offer price seems fair, 8x EV/forward EBITDA vs. 7.8x for European peers.

Veolia Environnement Sa (VIE FP) announced on 30 August a firm offer to Engie SA (ENGI FP) to acquire a 29.9% stake of Suez (SEV FP) at €15.5 per share. If this offer is accepted by Engie, Veolia intends to launch a voluntary takeover offer for the remaining shares of Suez and estimates the process to last between 12 and 18 months. Veolia aims to create "the French World Champion of Ecological Transformation" and is banking on the increasing demand for water treatment and waste management services worldwide, especially in emerging markets.

Suez closed today (2 September) at €14.9 per share, a 3.8% absolute spread to the proposed takeover offer price.

Suez says that "the approach of Veolia has not been solicited and has not been discussed at all with Suez". But the announcement has almost surely all the blessings of the French government.
The transaction with Engie is highly likely to succeed, thus a full-on offer for Suez is to be expected. The offer price seems fair, 8x EV/forward EBITDA vs. 7.8x for European peers.

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/veolia-environnement-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21568:1" rel="noopener">Veolia (VIE FP), </a>a leading water and waste management company made an unsolicited bid for a 29.9% stake in leading competitor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suez-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21546:1" rel="noopener">Suez (SEV FP)</a> through purchasing the stake held by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/engie-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21449:1" rel="noopener">Engie SA (ENGI FP)</a> , another French utility company which recently announced it was undertaking a strategic review of its assets. We look at potential return scenarios below.

Yesterday, Veolia (VIE FP), a leading water and waste management company made an unsolicited bid for a 29.9% stake in leading competitor Suez (SEV FP) through purchasing the stake held by Engie SA (ENGI FP) , another French utility company which recently announced it was undertaking a strategic review of its assets. We look at potential return scenarios below. 

Suez: An Opportunistic or Fair Bid by Veolia?

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Total Access Communication / Equity Bottom-Up

Even as Thailand courts FDI, one thing we found interesting is that the long term strategic holders usually ends up not in private hands abroad but some quasi-state entities. In this review, we profile DTAC, barely the second largest mobile operator, which is controlled by Norweigian telecom state enterprise Telenor. We also look at Glow, a really well run power company that is controlled by GDF Suez. GDF is France's equivalent of EGAT. There's more, but these are the two most important ones. Investment-wise, we consider DTAC our top pick and M&amp;A play in the telecom sector. Unlike Thai state enterprises, foreign ones are really well run yo. The only mission they are on is making big bucks on taxpayer's dime.Wanna take a look at my military satellite map? Ah...forget about it yo. I got things to do and places to go to.

Even as Thailand courts FDI, one thing we found interesting is that the long term strategic holders usually ends up not in private hands abroad but some quasi-state entities. In this review, we profile DTAC, barely the second largest mobile operator, which is controlled by Norweigian telecom state enterprise Telenor. We also look at Glow, a really well run power company that is controlled by GDF Suez. GDF is France's equivalent of EGAT. There's more, but these are the two most important ones. Investment-wise, we consider DTAC our top pick and M&amp;A play in the telecom sector. Unlike Thai state enterprises, foreign ones are really well run yo. The only mission they are on is making big bucks on taxpayer's dime.Wanna take a look at my military satellite map? Ah...forget about it yo. I got things to do and places to go to.

Big Brother (Season Finale): Gaijins At the Gates

France

Suez SA provides equipment and services for potable water supply. The Company collects, treats, and distributes drinkable water. Suez  also provides services for waste collection, recycling, recovery, treatment and disposal of urban and industrial waste. Suez serves customers worldwide.

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Suez (SEV FP)

Veolia - Suez Recap. Veolia Wins the First Round, but Suez's Unions Delay the Operation.

In a puzzle with several moving parts, Veolia is strongly committed to acquiring Suez and creating a giant (pro-forma 2020 income c.€43 bn). The...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Veolia - Suez: Another French Champion

Veolia environment announced on 30 August a firm offer to Engie to acquire a 29.9% stake of Suez, at €15.5 per share.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Suez: An Opportunistic or Fair Bid by Veolia?

Yesterday, Veolia (VIE FP), a leading water and waste management company made an unsolicited bid for a 29.9% stake in leading competitor Suez (SEV...

Rickin Thakrar

Big Brother (Season Finale): Gaijins At the Gates

Even as Thailand courts FDI, one thing we found interesting is that the long term strategic holders usually ends up not in private hands abroad but...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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