Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> remains Japan’s largest drugstore group and continues to expand relentlessly. In addition to breaking 2,200 stores, last year it hired a large proportion of all the newly qualified pharmacists in Japan. The cost of this has caused some analysts to worry about short-term profitability, but if it can keep up the pace (and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aeon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1" rel="noopener">Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)</a>, its parent, will ensure it does), competitors may find it hard to keep up.</p>

Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) remains Japan’s largest drugstore group and continues to expand relentlessly. In addition to breaking 2,200 stores, last year it hired a large proportion of all the newly qualified pharmacists in Japan. The cost of this has caused some analysts to worry about short-term profitability, but if it can keep up the pace (and Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP), its parent, will ensure it does), competitors may find it hard to keep up.

<p>The merger of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> is just one symptom of the growing concentration of market share in the drugstore sector.</p><p>But the sector's leaders are no longer just battling for dominance in drugstore retailing; increasingly drugstores are evolving far behind this niche sector.</p><p>Drugstore retailing is growing faster than any sector other than e-commerce because drugstores are positioned to meet customer needs for well-being, health and, nowadays, a broad range of daily necessities including food, and so becoming ever more integrated into consumers’ daily shopping experience.</p><p>Their eclectic ranges also mean they perform well in the middle of natural disasters and crises of various forms and many chains have seen good results thanks to earthquakes, extreme weather and especially thanks to Covid, but this doesn’t fully explain the sector’s success.</p><p>Crises may have helped, but Japan’s top drugstores are today some of the country’s best retailers in their own right.</p><p>The following is a complete, in-depth review of the drugstore sector, including rankings, KPIs, and future trends on the sector and the potential winners.</p><p><strong>Jun Tsuruha, the current <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> CEO, was widely quoted last year as saying the sector would soon be dominated by just “four or five” major firms. This is far from fantasy, with Tsuruha, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>, Matsukiyo-Cocokara, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmos-pharmaceutical-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3797:1" rel="noopener">Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi Holdings (7649 JP)</a> the most likely contenders.</strong></p>

The merger of Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) is just one symptom of the growing concentration of market share in the drugstore sector.But the sector's leaders are no longer just battling for dominance in drugstore retailing; increasingly drugstores are evolving far behind this niche sector.Drugstore retailing is growing faster than any sector other than e-commerce because drugstores are positioned to meet customer needs for well-being, health and, nowadays, a broad range of daily necessities including food, and so becoming ever more integrated into consumers’ daily shopping experience.Their eclectic ranges also mean they perform well in the middle of natural disasters and crises of various forms and many chains have seen good results thanks to earthquakes, extreme weather and especially thanks to Covid, but this doesn’t fully explain the sector’s success.Crises may have helped, but Japan’s top drugstores are today some of the country’s best retailers in their own right.The following is a complete, in-depth review of the drugstore sector, including rankings, KPIs, and future trends on the sector and the potential winners.Jun Tsuruha, the current Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) CEO, was widely quoted last year as saying the sector would soon be dominated by just “four or five” major firms. This is far from fantasy, with Tsuruha, Welcia Holdings (3141 JP), Matsukiyo-Cocokara, Cosmos Pharmaceutical (3349 JP) and Sugi Holdings (7649 JP) the most likely contenders.

Japan Drugstores: Growing Leadership in Food, Household, Cosmetics – and the Odd Medicine Too

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• RESULTS - 6th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/143/original/image_48903433121617743112480.png?1617743113" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199143"></figure><div class="content-caption"> Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>RESULTS</strong> - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi (7649 JP)</a> should cap its recent three-month 29% rally. Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/san-a-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20755:1" rel="noopener">San-A (2659 JP)</a> continues to see margin compression but expects a reversal in the new fiscal year. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/144/original/image_43671087431617743435802.png?1617743436" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199144"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/145/original/image_77617965041617743669042.png?1617743669" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199145"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/146/original/image_76585369451617743732286.png?1617743732" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199146"></figure><p><strong>FORECASTS/REVISIONS</strong> - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>  revises up but to below TTM, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> expects to finish the year with a ¥34 billion net loss.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/147/original/image_68585463461617743969672.png?1617743970" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199147"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/199/149/original/image_25082609781617744023412.png?1617744024" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="199149"></figure>

• RESULTS - 6th APRIL • Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan AnalyticsRESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally. Meanwhile, San-A (2659 JP) continues to see margin compression but expects a reversal in the new fiscal year. • FORECASTS/REVISIONS - 5th APRIL •FORECASTS/REVISIONS - Lawson (2651 JP)  revises up but to below TTM, while Takashimaya (8233 JP) expects to finish the year with a ¥34 billion net loss.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​06  -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Just under two years ago, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> was being courted by multiple suitors, and in early Q3 after the Independent Review Committee decided to negotiate with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP)</a> rather than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi Holdings (7649 JP)</a>, it looked like a deal was forthcoming. However in early 2020, it was announced that the decision on a ratio was put off and the two companies agreed to a delayed-vs-expectations integration process.</p><p>Rather than push a deal forward at that moment, the two companies agreed at the end of January 2020 that MatsuKiyo would put up funds (which turned out to be ¥38.4bn) to buy shares of cocokara in a third-party placement of 20% of the company (<a href="https://corp.cocokarafine.co.jp/news/pdf/20200331_TD01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">completed 31 March</a>), and the two companies would work on a plan to introduce synergies, and then the ratio would be decided when management teams at both firms had a better idea of what effect the synergies might have on future management profit forecasts.</p><p>Subsequent earnings announcements have suggested that synergies have been found. </p><div>
<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="3" style="width: 724px;"><h2>The Schedule of the Integration</h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 128px;"><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td style="width: 330px;"><strong>Detail</strong></td>
<td style="width: 224px;"><strong>Comment</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 128px;">31 Jan 2020</td>
<td style="width: 330px;">Business Integration &amp; Capital Alliance Announcement</td>
<td style="width: 224px;">The New Deal</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 128px;">31 Jan to 30 April 2020</td>
<td style="width: 330px;">Submission of Capital Alliance/Integration to JFTC, JFTC Approval, Cocokara Share Issuance, Equity Affiliate status</td>
<td style="width: 224px;">JFTC Approval, and investment made March 2020</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 128px;">THE NEXT YEAR</td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 330px;"><p>The two companies will work on the synergies and discuss their vision, plans, etc, and come up with a Merger Ratio, which will be in part dependent on the new management profit forecasts built up after several months or a year's worth of effort at finding synergies.</p></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 128px;">Feb 2021</td>
<td style="width: 330px;"><p>Execution of definitive agreement related to the Business Integration</p></td>
<td style="width: 224px;">The Merger Ratio Announcement</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 128px;">June 2021</td>
<td style="width: 330px;"><p>Ordinary general meetings of shareholders of both companies (resolution regarding approval of the Business Integration)</p></td>
<td style="width: 224px;">The Approvals</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 128px;">1 Oct 2021</td>
<td style="width: 330px;"><p>Effective Date of the Business Integration</p></td>
<td style="width: 224px;">The Merger</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>The cocokara/MatsuKiyo price ratio fell to 1.28 and that was a great time to buy. My trade recommendations on the ratio are marked in the chart below.</p>
<p>Then covid-19 effects knocked markets for a loop and the ratio dropped from 1.43 a month later to 1.20 in mid-March to 1.40 again at end-March as share prices fluctuated wildly. The ratio stabilized in the 1.37-1.43 range until end-May when the ratio jumped. It then moved up steadily to 1.80 last week before dropping to 1.76 where it was in September when I recommended buying both names, noting that Matsumoto Kiyoshi had underperformed its peers.</p>
<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/186/347/original/Screenshot+2021-02-02+at+9.09.30+PM.png?1612271389" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="186347"></figure></section><p></p>
<p>The ratio has fallen since then but both stocks are up, MatsuKiyo up more.</p>
<h3>Where We Are Now</h3>
<p>Just over a week ago, on 22 January 2021, cocokara fine announced that because of the announcement of the state of emergency related to covid-19, workers and service providers working from home might experience some delay in preparing the financial releases and therefore the announcement of Q3 earnings would be put off from the regularly scheduled date of 29 January to 12 February 2021. The statement says no analyst meeting to discuss Q3 results will be held. </p>
<p><strong>A decision on the definitive agreement on Business Integration is due in February 2021.</strong></p>
<p>Now cocokara is releasing earnings on 12 February, and I believe one should expect Matsumoto Kiyoshi results on the same day. </p>
<p>Hmmm...</p>
</div>

Just under two years ago, Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) was being courted by multiple suitors, and in early Q3 after the Independent Review Committee decided to negotiate with Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP) rather than Sugi Holdings (7649 JP), it looked like a deal was forthcoming. However in early 2020, it was announced that the decision on a ratio was put off and the two companies agreed to a delayed-vs-expectations integration process.Rather than push a deal forward at that moment, the two companies agreed at the end of January 2020 that MatsuKiyo would put up funds (which turned out to be ¥38.4bn) to buy shares of cocokara in a third-party placement of 20% of the company (completed 31 March), and the two companies would work on a plan to introduce synergies, and then the ratio would be decided when management teams at both firms had a better idea of what effect the synergies might have on future management profit forecasts.Subsequent earnings announcements have suggested that synergies have been found. 

The Schedule of the Integration

Date
Detail
Comment


31 Jan 2020
Business Integration &amp; Capital Alliance Announcement
The New Deal


31 Jan to 30 April 2020
Submission of Capital Alliance/Integration to JFTC, JFTC Approval, Cocokara Share Issuance, Equity Affiliate status
JFTC Approval, and investment made March 2020


THE NEXT YEAR
The two companies will work on the synergies and discuss their vision, plans, etc, and come up with a Merger Ratio, which will be in part dependent on the new management profit forecasts built up after several months or a year's worth of effort at finding synergies.


Feb 2021
Execution of definitive agreement related to the Business Integration
The Merger Ratio Announcement


June 2021
Ordinary general meetings of shareholders of both companies (resolution regarding approval of the Business Integration)
The Approvals


1 Oct 2021
Effective Date of the Business Integration
The Merger


The cocokara/MatsuKiyo price ratio fell to 1.28 and that was a great time to buy. My trade recommendations on the ratio are marked in the chart below.
Then covid-19 effects knocked markets for a loop and the ratio dropped from 1.43 a month later to 1.20 in mid-March to 1.40 again at end-March as share prices fluctuated wildly. The ratio stabilized in the 1.37-1.43 range until end-May when the ratio jumped. It then moved up steadily to 1.80 last week before dropping to 1.76 where it was in September when I recommended buying both names, noting that Matsumoto Kiyoshi had underperformed its peers.

The ratio has fallen since then but both stocks are up, MatsuKiyo up more.
Where We Are Now
Just over a week ago, on 22 January 2021, cocokara fine announced that because of the announcement of the state of emergency related to covid-19, workers and service providers working from home might experience some delay in preparing the financial releases and therefore the announcement of Q3 earnings would be put off from the regularly scheduled date of 29 January to 12 February 2021. The statement says no analyst meeting to discuss Q3 results will be held. 
A decision on the definitive agreement on Business Integration is due in February 2021.
Now cocokara is releasing earnings on 12 February, and I believe one should expect Matsumoto Kiyoshi results on the same day. 
Hmmm...


Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">Our best and worst pair is home centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP)</a> and the department store <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/606/original/2020-09-30_06-18-07.png?1601414298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162606"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/607/original/2020-09-29_06-15-33.png?1601414581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162607"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>16 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -0.9 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.9ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 19%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -3.8 points</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair is home centre Keiyo (8168 JP) and the department store J Front Retailing (3086 JP) although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
16 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.9 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%
15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.8 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

Japan

SUGI HOLDINGS CO., LTD. operates a chain of drug stores located mainly in Aichi Prefecture.  The Company sells prescription and nonprescription medicine, cosmetics, health foods, and general merchandise.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sugi Holdings (7649 JP)

Welcia: Aeon’s Shining Star

Welcia has retained the top spot in drugstores and, judging by its aggressive hiring of pharmacists is determined to stay there. It is working on...

Michael Causton

Japan Drugstores: Growing Leadership in Food, Household, Cosmetics – and the Odd Medicine Too

The Japanese drugstore sector has seen a big merger but there will be more as the sector not only consolidates down to a few leaders but also...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

RESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally.

Campbell Gunn

Cocokara/MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?

10 days ago cocokara fine (3098) announced a delay in Q3 earnings because of the coronavirus emergency measures - to the same day as MatsuKiyo...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Welcia: Aeon’s Shining Star

Welcia has retained the top spot in drugstores and, judging by its aggressive hiring of pharmacists is determined to stay there. It is working on...

Michael Causton

Japan Drugstores: Growing Leadership in Food, Household, Cosmetics – and the Odd Medicine Too

The Japanese drugstore sector has seen a big merger but there will be more as the sector not only consolidates down to a few leaders but also...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/​​06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

RESULTS - A weak fourth quarter and cautious interim forecast from drugstore Sugi (7649 JP) should cap its recent three-month 29% rally.

Campbell Gunn

Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?

10 days ago cocokara fine (3098) announced a delay in Q3 earnings because of the coronavirus emergency measures - to the same day as MatsuKiyo...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 04/06 -Sugi, San-A & Lawson

Cocokara/MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito