Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>SUMCO delivered Q1 FY2026 sales of ¥101.4 billion, in line, an operating loss of ¥5.2 billion, an ordinary loss of ¥7.9 billion and a net loss of ¥8.4 billion.</li>
<li>YoY sales were basically flat while operating profit fell 11.1 billion yen, the vast majority of which, 6.1 billion yen, was attributable to higher depreciation from the prior CapEx cycle</li>
<li>Q2 FY2026 revenue guidance is ¥112 billion, up ¥10.6 billion sequentially, with the operating loss narrowing to ¥2.5 billion. AI-related demand for 300mm wafers is the dominant driver.</li>
</ul>


SUMCO delivered Q1 FY2026 sales of ¥101.4 billion, in line, an operating loss of ¥5.2 billion, an ordinary loss of ¥7.9 billion and a net loss of ¥8.4 billion.
YoY sales were basically flat while operating profit fell 11.1 billion yen, the vast majority of which, 6.1 billion yen, was attributable to higher depreciation from the prior CapEx cycle
Q2 FY2026 revenue guidance is ¥112 billion, up ¥10.6 billion sequentially, with the operating loss narrowing to ¥2.5 billion. AI-related demand for 300mm wafers is the dominant driver.


SUMCO Q1 FY2026. Largely As Expected. Share Price Correction Underway, Also As Expected.

<ul>
<li>SUMCO soared 18% on May 8. Their share price is +260% over the past year and +149% YTD. Siltronic &amp; GlobalWafers have shown a similar, albeit less dramatic, trend.  </li>
<li>The silicon wafer recovery from a protracted post-pandemic downturn remains a work in progress. Inventory levels are still at historic highs, current year forecasts are ho-hum at best</li>
<li>Many semi names are presently re-rating based on record breaking revenue growth. That kinda makes sense. The silicon wafer manufacturers are rallying on sentiment. That may become problematic. Let's see.</li>
</ul>


SUMCO soared 18% on May 8. Their share price is +260% over the past year and +149% YTD. Siltronic &amp; GlobalWafers have shown a similar, albeit less dramatic, trend.  
The silicon wafer recovery from a protracted post-pandemic downturn remains a work in progress. Inventory levels are still at historic highs, current year forecasts are ho-hum at best
Many semi names are presently re-rating based on record breaking revenue growth. That kinda makes sense. The silicon wafer manufacturers are rallying on sentiment. That may become problematic. Let's see.


Sumco Soars But Their Downturn Recovery Still Remains Very Much A Work In Progress

Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Record 300mm shipments, three loss-makers: ¥134bn of depreciation — not demand — is the entire gap; it peaks in FY2026 and mechanically rolls to ¥90bn by FY2028.</li>
<li>China has won 200mm and is contesting mature-node 300mm; at the leading edge — where the profit pool sits — no Chinese supplier is qualified below 14nm.</li>
<li>
<strong>Constructive on the sector:</strong> SUMCO top pick BULLISH ¥4,200 (9.0x FY2028E EBITDA), Shin-Etsu BULLISH ¥7,300 (11.5x FY2027E EBITDA), GlobalWafers NEUTRAL NT$920, Siltronic BEARISH €76. </li>
</ul>


Record 300mm shipments, three loss-makers: ¥134bn of depreciation — not demand — is the entire gap; it peaks in FY2026 and mechanically rolls to ¥90bn by FY2028.
China has won 200mm and is contesting mature-node 300mm; at the leading edge — where the profit pool sits — no Chinese supplier is qualified below 14nm.

Constructive on the sector: SUMCO top pick BULLISH ¥4,200 (9.0x FY2028E EBITDA), Shin-Etsu BULLISH ¥7,300 (11.5x FY2027E EBITDA), GlobalWafers NEUTRAL NT$920, Siltronic BEARISH €76. 


Silicon Wafer Industry Handbook: Primer, Cycle Framework and the 300mm Valuation Map

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

<ul>
<li>Kioxia, Minebea Misumi and Hoya may face a wobbly open after both Sandisk and WD missed expectations.</li>
<li>Sumco and Shin Etsu could see limited impact or even gains from proposed US polysilicon tariffs, as both source directly from US-based suppliers.</li>
<li>SpaceX dropped -13.6% after earnings AH yesterday, which looked good, but the firm spooked the mkt with its higher AI spend.</li>
</ul>


Kioxia, Minebea Misumi and Hoya may face a wobbly open after both Sandisk and WD missed expectations.
Sumco and Shin Etsu could see limited impact or even gains from proposed US polysilicon tariffs, as both source directly from US-based suppliers.
SpaceX dropped -13.6% after earnings AH yesterday, which looked good, but the firm spooked the mkt with its higher AI spend.


Japan Morning Connection: Memory Names Set for a Tough Session After Sandisk, WD Earnings Disappoint

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Earnings season may accelerate the rotation from AI momentum into quality compounders with earnings visibility.</li>
<li>Macro headwinds with oil above $100, yen at 40-year lows, BOJ tightening on the horizon</li>
<li>We expect this dynamic to persist through August reporting season.</li>
</ul>


Earnings season may accelerate the rotation from AI momentum into quality compounders with earnings visibility.
Macro headwinds with oil above $100, yen at 40-year lows, BOJ tightening on the horizon
We expect this dynamic to persist through August reporting season.


Japan Strategy Weekly | Bifurcation Season

Japan

SUMCO Corporation manufactures silicon wafers for the semiconductor industry. The Company produces silicon wafers used to produce solar batteries as well as ultra-high purity quartz used to produce vessels for silicon manufacturing process. SUMCO markets its products worldwide.

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SUMCO Corp (3436 JP)

Sumco Soars But Their Downturn Recovery Still Remains Very Much A Work In Progress

Many semi names are re-rating based on record breaking revenue growth. That kinda makes sense. The silicon wafer manufacturers are rerating on not...

William Keating

Silicon Wafer Industry Handbook: Primer, Cycle Framework and the 300mm Valuation Map

The industry ships record volumes and reports losses. The gap is ¥134bn of scheduled non-cash depreciation — already peaking. Contracts reprice...

Mo Aziz

Japan Morning Connection: Memory Names Set for a Tough Session After Sandisk, WD Earnings Disappoint

Kioxia, Minebea Misumi, and Hoya may have a rough open due to missed expectations from Sandisk and WD, while US polysilicon tariffs shouldn't be a...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Bifurcation Season

Investors may shift from AI momentum to quality compounders amid macro headwinds, with this trend likely continuing through August earnings season.

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SUMCO Q1 FY2026. Largely As Expected. Share Price Correction Underway, Also As Expected.

Q2 FY2026 revenue guidance is ¥112 billion, up ¥10.6 billion sequentially, with the operating loss narrowing to ¥2.5 billion. AI-related demand for...

William Keating

Sumco Soars But Their Downturn Recovery Still Remains Very Much A Work In Progress

Many semi names are re-rating based on record breaking revenue growth. That kinda makes sense. The silicon wafer manufacturers are rerating on not...

William Keating

Silicon Wafer Industry Handbook: Primer, Cycle Framework and the 300mm Valuation Map

The industry ships record volumes and reports losses. The gap is ¥134bn of scheduled non-cash depreciation — already peaking. Contracts reprice...

Mo Aziz

Japan Morning Connection: Memory Names Set for a Tough Session After Sandisk, WD Earnings Disappoint

Kioxia, Minebea Misumi, and Hoya may have a rough open due to missed expectations from Sandisk and WD, while US polysilicon tariffs shouldn't be a...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Strategy Weekly | Bifurcation Season

​Investors may shift from AI momentum to quality compounders amid macro headwinds, with this trend likely continuing through August earnings season.

Mark Chadwick

Investors may shift from AI momentum to quality compounders amid macro headwinds, with this trend likely continuing through August earnings season.