Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings Growth: Non-resource engines (Food, FamilyMart, ICT, Textiles) compounding at double-digit rates; mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth outlook.</li>
<li>Valuation: Trades at ~13× FY2026E P/E, in line with peers, offering steady TSR without a valuation premium.</li>
<li>Capital Returns: ¥200/share dividend + ¥150 bn buybacks underpin 40–50% payout; EPS uplift from share reduction.</li>
</ul>


Earnings Growth: Non-resource engines (Food, FamilyMart, ICT, Textiles) compounding at double-digit rates; mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth outlook.
Valuation: Trades at ~13× FY2026E P/E, in line with peers, offering steady TSR without a valuation premium.
Capital Returns: ¥200/share dividend + ¥150 bn buybacks underpin 40–50% payout; EPS uplift from share reduction.


Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR

<ul>
<li>Copper earnings leverage: Equity-method stakes in Collahuasi and Anglo Sur mean every +10% copper move adds ~¥25–30 bn net income (~3% EPS), giving Mitsui underappreciated upside torque.</li>
<li>LNG stability &amp; cash flows: Long-term contracts in Mozambique, Cameron, Qatar, and Sakhalin underpin resilient earnings and support ¥400 bn annual buybacks (~5% equity).</li>
<li>Valuation: P/B discount vs Itochu has closed (~1.1× each), but Berkshire’s ≥10% stake enforces capital discipline; TSR outlook is 6–9% CAGR through FY28, with copper strength providing double-digit upside.</li>
</ul>


Copper earnings leverage: Equity-method stakes in Collahuasi and Anglo Sur mean every +10% copper move adds ~¥25–30 bn net income (~3% EPS), giving Mitsui underappreciated upside torque.
LNG stability &amp; cash flows: Long-term contracts in Mozambique, Cameron, Qatar, and Sakhalin underpin resilient earnings and support ¥400 bn annual buybacks (~5% equity).
Valuation: P/B discount vs Itochu has closed (~1.1× each), but Berkshire’s ≥10% stake enforces capital discipline; TSR outlook is 6–9% CAGR through FY28, with copper strength providing double-digit upside.


Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

<ul>
<li>Sojitz is a mid-tier sōgō shōsha with, shifting its earnings base from coal and resources toward Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare.</li>
<li>FY25 profit is guided flat at ¥115bn, with Metals weakness offset by non-resource growth; by FY27, ~80% of profits are expected from non-resource segments.</li>
<li>Shares trade at 7.8x P/E (30–40% discount to peers) with a 4.2% yield, but cash flow volatility, coal exposure, and smaller scale remain key overhangs.</li>
</ul>


Sojitz is a mid-tier sōgō shōsha with, shifting its earnings base from coal and resources toward Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare.
FY25 profit is guided flat at ¥115bn, with Metals weakness offset by non-resource growth; by FY27, ~80% of profits are expected from non-resource segments.
Shares trade at 7.8x P/E (30–40% discount to peers) with a 4.2% yield, but cash flow volatility, coal exposure, and smaller scale remain key overhangs.


Sojitz – Non-Resource Pivot in Motion, Valuation Discount Persists

<ul>
<li>Anglo and Teck have decided to merge, creating a ~$53bn copper-focused mining major that ranks #4 globally with ~1.2 Mt of output in 2024.</li>
<li>The deal targets ~$800m in annual savings by year four, though history suggests full delivery is unlikely.</li>
<li>The combined group offers strong leverage to copper’s structural growth and top-3 scale in seaborne met coal as a cash engine.</li>
</ul>


Anglo and Teck have decided to merge, creating a ~$53bn copper-focused mining major that ranks #4 globally with ~1.2 Mt of output in 2024.
The deal targets ~$800m in annual savings by year four, though history suggests full delivery is unlikely.
The combined group offers strong leverage to copper’s structural growth and top-3 scale in seaborne met coal as a cash engine.


Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.</li>
<li>Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.</li>
<li>Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.</li>
</ul>


Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.


Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japan

Sumitomo Corp is a general trading company.  The Company imports and exports a wide variety of goods such as metals, machinery, chemicals, fuel,food products, and textiles.  Sumitomo also operates real estate, construction, shipping, insurance, finance, and leasing businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP)

Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR

Article highlights strong earnings growth in non-resource sectors, steady valuation in line with peers, and significant capital returns through...

Rahul Jain

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Rahul Jain

Sojitz – Non-Resource Pivot in Motion, Valuation Discount Persists

Sojitz diversifies earnings away from coal and resources towards Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare,. Trading at a discount to peers with...

Rahul Jain

Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Itochu (8001 JP) — Structural Growth, Fair Valuation, Solid TSR

​Article highlights strong earnings growth in non-resource sectors, steady valuation in line with peers, and significant capital returns through...

Rahul Jain

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

​Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Rahul Jain

Sojitz – Non-Resource Pivot in Motion, Valuation Discount Persists

​Sojitz diversifies earnings away from coal and resources towards Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare,. Trading at a discount to peers with...

Rahul Jain

Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

​Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

​Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Article highlights strong earnings growth in non-resource sectors, steady valuation in line with peers, and significant capital returns through...

Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Sojitz diversifies earnings away from coal and resources towards Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare,. Trading at a discount to peers with...

Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...