Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Earnings re-based higher: FY2025–27 EPS upgraded ~20%, driven by copper and gold prices; resource earnings dominate while smelting volatility remains largely accounting-driven.</li>
<li>Valuation near fair value: At ~¥6,000, SMM trades around mid-cycle value; upside depends on sustained copper/gold strength rather than multiple expansion.</li>
<li>Downside cushioned: Strong balance sheet and ~2× FCF dividend cover limit downside, with pullbacks offering better entry than chasing spot-driven rallies.</li>
</ul>


Earnings re-based higher: FY2025–27 EPS upgraded ~20%, driven by copper and gold prices; resource earnings dominate while smelting volatility remains largely accounting-driven.
Valuation near fair value: At ~¥6,000, SMM trades around mid-cycle value; upside depends on sustained copper/gold strength rather than multiple expansion.
Downside cushioned: Strong balance sheet and ~2× FCF dividend cover limit downside, with pullbacks offering better entry than chasing spot-driven rallies.


Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T): Resources Anchor Earnings; Upside Linked to Copper & Gold

<ul>
<li>FY2024–25 results showed a sharp rebound, with Resources strength (copper, gold) more than offsetting Smelting losses.</li>
<li>August FY2025 guidance raised PBT and dividend despite trimming sales and Smelting outlook, reflecting confidence in core earnings.</li>
<li>EBITDA is set to grow ~6–7% over FY2025–27, leaving the stock inexpensive on P/E (~12x vs peers ~16x).</li>
</ul>


FY2024–25 results showed a sharp rebound, with Resources strength (copper, gold) more than offsetting Smelting losses.
August FY2025 guidance raised PBT and dividend despite trimming sales and Smelting outlook, reflecting confidence in core earnings.
EBITDA is set to grow ~6–7% over FY2025–27, leaving the stock inexpensive on P/E (~12x vs peers ~16x).


Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP): Recovery Driven by Resources

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>What are major global bond markets telling us about the world?</li>
<li>We look at potential beneficiaries  of the next wave of inflation </li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
What are major global bond markets telling us about the world?
We look at potential beneficiaries  of the next wave of inflation 


Overview #27 – The Big Beautiful Tragi-Comedy Continues

<ul>
<li>Company Forecasts extremely conservative at current and expected metal prices</li>
<li>Scarcity Value for a liquid, large-cap gold miner in Japan</li>
<li>Balance Sheet will allow future share buybacks and dividend in the harvesting phase</li>
</ul>


Company Forecasts extremely conservative at current and expected metal prices
Scarcity Value for a liquid, large-cap gold miner in Japan
Balance Sheet will allow future share buybacks and dividend in the harvesting phase


Sumitomo Metal Mining -  A Shiny Mix of Gold, Copper and Nickel

<ul>
<li>Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713) faced challenges in FY2024, with earnings impacted by weak treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in the copper segment and underperformance in battery materials.</li>
<li>Its recent 3-Year Business Plan 2027,  to boost EBITDA from ¥150 billion to ¥275 billion by FY2027 by working on the mines, focussing on battery materials business, and recycling.</li>
<li>The stock has declined approximately 37% over the past year, making it more attractive with a forward EV/EBITDA of around 4.0x, suggesting potential undervaluation.</li>
</ul>


Sumitomo Metal Mining (TSE:5713) faced challenges in FY2024, with earnings impacted by weak treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) in the copper segment and underperformance in battery materials.
Its recent 3-Year Business Plan 2027,  to boost EBITDA from ¥150 billion to ¥275 billion by FY2027 by working on the mines, focussing on battery materials business, and recycling.
The stock has declined approximately 37% over the past year, making it more attractive with a forward EV/EBITDA of around 4.0x, suggesting potential undervaluation.


Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T): Strategic Reset Amid Downstream Challenges and Valuation Discount

Japan

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. develops and mines non-ferrous metals in Japan and overseas.  The Company's primary products include copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, and zinc.  The Company refines, produces, and sells precious metals.  Sumitomo Metal Mining also produces and markets electronic & housing construction materials and provides civil engineering works.

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Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP)

Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713.T): Resources Anchor Earnings; Upside Linked to Copper & Gold

Earnings upgraded due to copper and gold prices, SMM trades near fair value at ¥6,000 with limited downside and potential for sustained strength in...

Rahul Jain