Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Nickel surges after Freeport's Indonesian closure will have long term pricing impact. Watch SMM, MMS and Mit Materials.</li>
<li>Inrel approaches Apple for partnership, although its unlikely they can push out TSMC for chips.</li>
<li>Memory takes a break after Micon's earnings seen as not quite good enough after recent gains.</li>
</ul>


Nickel surges after Freeport's Indonesian closure will have long term pricing impact. Watch SMM, MMS and Mit Materials.
Inrel approaches Apple for partnership, although its unlikely they can push out TSMC for chips.
Memory takes a break after Micon's earnings seen as not quite good enough after recent gains.


Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.</li>
<li>Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).</li>
<li>Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.</li>
</ul>


Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.
Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).
Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.


Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

<ul>
<li>Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.</li>
<li>Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.</li>
<li>With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.</li>
</ul>


Copper treatment and refining charges have collapsed from ~$80/ton in 2023 to around –$40/ton by mid-2025, meaning smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate.
Smelter Cutbacks: Persistent margin losses have triggered curtailments and shutdowns across major smelters in China, Japan, and Southeast Asia, removing an estimated 1.3–1.5 Mtpa of refined capacity.
With refined supply under strain, low exchange stocks, and surging Asian premiums, the market risks flipping into a structural deficit—setting the stage for further upside in copper prices into 2026.


Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Anglo and Teck have decided to merge, creating a ~$53bn copper-focused mining major that ranks #4 globally with ~1.2 Mt of output in 2024.</li>
<li>The deal targets ~$800m in annual savings by year four, though history suggests full delivery is unlikely.</li>
<li>The combined group offers strong leverage to copper’s structural growth and top-3 scale in seaborne met coal as a cash engine.</li>
</ul>


Anglo and Teck have decided to merge, creating a ~$53bn copper-focused mining major that ranks #4 globally with ~1.2 Mt of output in 2024.
The deal targets ~$800m in annual savings by year four, though history suggests full delivery is unlikely.
The combined group offers strong leverage to copper’s structural growth and top-3 scale in seaborne met coal as a cash engine.


Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

<ul>
<li>Copper Output Cuts: JX Advanced Metals will reduce electrolytic copper production by ~30kt (~5–8% of capacity) in FY25, with further smelting downscaling by March 2026.</li>
<li>Margins have collapsed as TC/RCs plunged into negative territory (~–$45/t vs $80/t in 2023), amid concentrate shortages and Chinese overcapacity.</li>
<li>Smelting will be retained mainly for rare-metal recovery (tantalum, indium, rhenium), while JX doubles down on semiconductor materials and upstream mineral projects.</li>
</ul>


Copper Output Cuts: JX Advanced Metals will reduce electrolytic copper production by ~30kt (~5–8% of capacity) in FY25, with further smelting downscaling by March 2026.
Margins have collapsed as TC/RCs plunged into negative territory (~–$45/t vs $80/t in 2023), amid concentrate shortages and Chinese overcapacity.
Smelting will be retained mainly for rare-metal recovery (tantalum, indium, rhenium), while JX doubles down on semiconductor materials and upstream mineral projects.


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot

Japan

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co., Ltd. develops and mines non-ferrous metals in Japan and overseas.  The Company's primary products include copper, gold, silver, nickel, lead, and zinc.  The Company refines, produces, and sells precious metals.  Sumitomo Metal Mining also produces and markets electronic & housing construction materials and provides civil engineering works.

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Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Global defense names did well after Trump's comments of support for Ukraine. Marvell jumped after management announced a $1bn accelerated buyback.

Andrew Jackson

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

Rahul Jain

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot

JX Advanced Metals to cut copper production by 5-8% in FY25 due to low margins, focusing on rare-metal recovery and semiconductor materials.

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Takes a Breather but Marvell Doubles Down with Announced Buyback

Global defense names did well after Trump's comments of support for Ukraine. Marvell jumped after management announced a $1bn accelerated buyback.

Andrew Jackson

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

​Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Copper Market Stress Test: TC/RC Collapse and Its Implications for Miners, Smelters, and Prices

​Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Rahul Jain

Anglo–Teck: Building a Copper Champion with Coal Cash Flow

​Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

Rahul Jain

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) – Smelting Cuts Reinforce Materials Pivot

​JX Advanced Metals to cut copper production by 5-8% in FY25 due to low margins, focusing on rare-metal recovery and semiconductor materials.

Rahul Jain

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Copper smelters facing losses lead to cutbacks and shutdowns, risking supply shortage and potential price increase in 2026.

Anglo and Teck merge to create $53bn copper-focused mining major, aiming for $800m in annual savings by year four with strong leverage to copper's...

JX Advanced Metals to cut copper production by 5-8% in FY25 due to low margins, focusing on rare-metal recovery and semiconductor materials.