Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> can see higher profit guidance change than many in Japan, the region, given its first quarter was 40% of full-year guidance</li>
<li>Riding JGB yields will support this, with less loans to total financial assets, and the bank has even seen its unrealized losses on JGBs decline. Good ALM.</li>
<li>Credit metrics are better. Its credit costs are in reversal. This can continue or at least remain low. This is supported by granular, macro data. </li>
</ul>



Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) can see higher profit guidance change than many in Japan, the region, given its first quarter was 40% of full-year guidance
Riding JGB yields will support this, with less loans to total financial assets, and the bank has even seen its unrealized losses on JGBs decline. Good ALM.
Credit metrics are better. Its credit costs are in reversal. This can continue or at least remain low. This is supported by granular, macro data. 


Mizuho - Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a> announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI shares (after an AGM disaster).</li>
<li>The company had already planned to borrow ¥500bn against the KDDI stake to return capital to shareholders. That was in the price 5+ months ago. </li>
<li>The new hope is that Kyocera just got Corporate Governance Religion. I have my doubts, and even if it did, you have to look carefully at their ambitious plans.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Kyocera Corp (6971 JP) announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI shares (after an AGM disaster).
The company had already planned to borrow ¥500bn against the KDDI stake to return capital to shareholders. That was in the price 5+ months ago. 
The new hope is that Kyocera just got Corporate Governance Religion. I have my doubts, and even if it did, you have to look carefully at their ambitious plans.


Kyocera (6971) And Their $10bn KDDI Stake - Did They Get CorpGov Religion?

<ul>
<li>40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.</li>
<li>92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.</li>
<li>Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.</li>
</ul>


40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>The latest BoJ adjustment to its yield curve control lifts the hard yield ceiling of 1% on 10 year JGBs, making it “a reference” and allowing yields to exceed it</li>
<li>10 year JGB yields are close to 1%, with Japanese bond yields steepening further which is positive for Japanese banks, especially those with a high share of floating-rate credit exposures</li>
<li>We stick with our positive views on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Hachijuni; we add Concordia to our buy list for its high share of floating rate credit exposure</li>
</ul>


The latest BoJ adjustment to its yield curve control lifts the hard yield ceiling of 1% on 10 year JGBs, making it “a reference” and allowing yields to exceed it
10 year JGB yields are close to 1%, with Japanese bond yields steepening further which is positive for Japanese banks, especially those with a high share of floating-rate credit exposures
We stick with our positive views on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Hachijuni; we add Concordia to our buy list for its high share of floating rate credit exposure


Japanese Banks – Nearing the Yield Curve Control End-Game

<ul>
<li>So far in 4Q23, Japanese banks’ share prices have registered a mixed performance, in part due to the unsettled global market conditions; yet the Japanese bond yield curve keeps steepening</li>
<li>We assess the top twelve Japanese commercial banks by market capitalisation, and we believe that Japanese banks remain good value with, a rare thing, improving fundamentals</li>
<li>Ahead of the September results, we stick with our buys on Resona, Mizuho and SMFG; Resona has lagged deserving to re-rate further, and we add Hachijuni to our buy list</li>
</ul>


So far in 4Q23, Japanese banks’ share prices have registered a mixed performance, in part due to the unsettled global market conditions; yet the Japanese bond yield curve keeps steepening
We assess the top twelve Japanese commercial banks by market capitalisation, and we believe that Japanese banks remain good value with, a rare thing, improving fundamentals
Ahead of the September results, we stick with our buys on Resona, Mizuho and SMFG; Resona has lagged deserving to re-rate further, and we add Hachijuni to our buy list


Japanese Banks – Stay the Bullish Course

Japan

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company established by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.  Sumitomo Mitsui Card Co., SMBC Leasing Co., and The Japanese Research Institute, Ltd. joined the Group in Feb., 2003. The Company manages financial operations for its subsidiaries.  The Group provides commercial banking and a variety of financial services.

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr)

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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (Sponsored Adr) (SMFG US)

Mizuho - Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

Mizuho can see major rise in its profit guidance, since it has met 40% of target in first quarter, also due to rising JGB yields, better loan...

Daniel Tabbush

Kyocera (6971) And Their $10bn KDDI Stake - Did They Get CorpGov Religion?

Kyocera yesterday announced a downward revision AND an intention to "reconsider" the disposition of its KDDI shares after the June AGM hurt. That...

Travis Lundy

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

The macro backdrop for Japanese banks is pretty good. Business restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Global macro is adding fees. Stocks are up,...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Banks – Nearing the Yield Curve Control End-Game

The BoJ's relaxation of yield curve control allows JGB yields to rise, positive for Japanese banks with big shares of floating-rate loans; we add...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Banks – Stay the Bullish Course

Japanese banks' share prices have been mixed in 4Q23, but the bond yield curve in Japan continues to steepen; we stick with Resona, Mizuho, and...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mizuho - Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

Mizuho can see major rise in its profit guidance, since it has met 40% of target in first quarter, also due to rising JGB yields, better loan...

Daniel Tabbush

Kyocera (6971) And Their $10bn KDDI Stake - Did They Get CorpGov Religion?

Kyocera yesterday announced a downward revision AND an intention to "reconsider" the disposition of its KDDI shares after the June AGM hurt. That...

Travis Lundy

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

The macro backdrop for Japanese banks is pretty good. Business restructuring efforts are bearing fruit. Global macro is adding fees. Stocks are up,...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Banks – Nearing the Yield Curve Control End-Game

​The BoJ's relaxation of yield curve control allows JGB yields to rise, positive for Japanese banks with big shares of floating-rate loans; we add...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Banks – Stay the Bullish Course

​Japanese banks' share prices have been mixed in 4Q23, but the bond yield curve in Japan continues to steepen; we stick with Resona, Mizuho, and...

Victor Galliano

The BoJ's relaxation of yield curve control allows JGB yields to rise, positive for Japanese banks with big shares of floating-rate loans; we add...

Japanese banks' share prices have been mixed in 4Q23, but the bond yield curve in Japan continues to steepen; we stick with Resona, Mizuho, and...