New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years</li><li>Additional COVID buffer is largely exhausted</li><li>How much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort</li></ul>

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 yearsAdditional COVID buffer is largely exhaustedHow much more to go? The long run still provides some comfort

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update.</li><li>However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points to a meaningful acceleration in contracting activity over late May and June.</li><li>With RYM trading on ~21x 12-month forward annuity earnings despite our forecast three-year forward annuity EPS CAGR of &gt;50%, we continue to view the risk–reward as attractive.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update.However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points to a meaningful acceleration in contracting activity over late May and June.With RYM trading on ~21x 12-month forward annuity earnings despite our forecast three-year forward annuity EPS CAGR of &gt;50%, we continue to view the risk–reward as attractive.

Ryman Healthcare Contracting Silver Lining

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on Ryman Healthcare (RYM) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>RYM is well positioned for a potential downturn, given reduced gearing and limited development exposure.</li><li>RYM's defensive care business represents ~25% of our forecast earnings growth from FY26 to FY29.</li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on Ryman Healthcare (RYM) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM.RYM is well positioned for a potential downturn, given reduced gearing and limited development exposure.RYM's defensive care business represents ~25% of our forecast earnings growth from FY26 to FY29.

Ryman Healthcare Time To Care, Not Fear—Up To OUTPERFORM

<ul><li>Ryman Healthcare (RYM’s) 4Q26 sales update was modestly softer than expected.</li><li>RYM has indicated FY26 free cash flow will be +NZ$180m, a solid outcome and ~+NZ$45m ahead of our forecasts.</li><li>Consistent with Summerset (SUM’s) update last week, RYM is yet to see any material impact from the conflict in the Middle East.</li></ul>

Ryman Healthcare (RYM’s) 4Q26 sales update was modestly softer than expected.RYM has indicated FY26 free cash flow will be +NZ$180m, a solid outcome and ~+NZ$45m ahead of our forecasts.Consistent with Summerset (SUM’s) update last week, RYM is yet to see any material impact from the conflict in the Middle East.

Ryman Healthcare (RYM): 4Q26 Sales And Trading Update

Radius Residential Care / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Radius Residential Care (RAD) has announced the acquisition of the Karori Village care home in Wellington from Metlifecare for NZ$13.6m (with settlement expected in late May 2026).</li><li>We view the transaction as attractive, supported by management's expectation for the home to be immediately NPAT accretive in FY27.</li><li>Our blended spot valuation rises +2cps to NZ$0.54.</li></ul>

Radius Residential Care (RAD) has announced the acquisition of the Karori Village care home in Wellington from Metlifecare for NZ$13.6m (with settlement expected in late May 2026).We view the transaction as attractive, supported by management's expectation for the home to be immediately NPAT accretive in FY27.Our blended spot valuation rises +2cps to NZ$0.54.

Radius Residential Care Care Arrives In The Capital

Australia

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

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Summerset Group Holdings (SNZ AU)

Aged Care Sector: Montgomerie-Ibbotson Aged Care Pricing Index; Crunch Time

The latest REINZ data for July confirmed that NZ is in the midst of its biggest (nominal) house price decline for at least 50 years

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare Contracting Silver Lining

Ryman Healthcare (RYM) delivered a mixed 1Q27 trading update. However, a +7% year-over-year increase in resale contracts during the quarter points...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare Time To Care, Not Fear—Up To OUTPERFORM

We upgrade our rating on Ryman Healthcare (RYM) from NEUTRAL to OUTPERFORM. RYM is well positioned for a potential downturn, given reduced gearing...

Forsyth Barr

Ryman Healthcare (RYM): 4Q26 Sales And Trading Update

Ryman Healthcare (RYM’s) 4Q26 sales update was modestly softer than expected. RYM has indicated FY26 free cash flow will be +NZ$180m, a solid...

Forsyth Barr

Radius Residential Care Care Arrives In The Capital

Radius Residential Care (RAD) has announced the acquisition of the Karori Village care home in Wellington from Metlifecare for NZ$13.6m (with...

Forsyth Barr

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