Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back on the 22 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>, a leading retirement living and aged care provider, announced a Scheme from Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Booklet is now <a href="https://www.arvida.co.nz/images/assets/38796/1/scheme+booklet.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 25th September. Expected implementation on the 13th November.</li>
<li>
The Scheme Consideration of NZ$1.70/share is within the Independent Adviser’s valuation range at NZ$1.63 to NZ$1.94/share. Arvida's directors unanimously recommend shareholders to vote in favour of the Scheme.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 22 July, Arvida (ARV NZ), a leading retirement living and aged care provider, announced a Scheme from Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed.

The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 25th September. Expected implementation on the 13th November.

The Scheme Consideration of NZ$1.70/share is within the Independent Adviser’s valuation range at NZ$1.63 to NZ$1.94/share. Arvida's directors unanimously recommend shareholders to vote in favour of the Scheme.


Arvida (ARV NZ): 25th Sept Vote On Stonepeak's Offer

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

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Equity Bottom-Up

Summerset Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) reported an in-line 1H24 annuity EBITDA result.</li><li>In the result, SUM: (1) gave new earnings breakdowns, which showed stronger Village earnings and softer Care earnings than we expected, and (2) cited a ~NZ$15m cost-out programme.</li><li>The strong cost control contributed to SUM delivering ~+20% growth in annuity EPS over one of the toughest periods on record, an impressive result. SUM also delivered higher-than-expected dividends, suggesting confidence in continued strong cash recovery of development capex. SUM acknowledged slightly slower than hoped for sales at its flagship St John development; it needs to execute well over the coming 12 months.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) reported an in-line 1H24 annuity EBITDA result.In the result, SUM: (1) gave new earnings breakdowns, which showed stronger Village earnings and softer Care earnings than we expected, and (2) cited a ~NZ$15m cost-out programme.The strong cost control contributed to SUM delivering ~+20% growth in annuity EPS over one of the toughest periods on record, an impressive result. SUM also delivered higher-than-expected dividends, suggesting confidence in continued strong cash recovery of development capex. SUM acknowledged slightly slower than hoped for sales at its flagship St John development; it needs to execute well over the coming 12 months.

Summerset Group - 1H24 Result — New Metrics, New Valuation

<ul><li>Summerset (SUM) will report its 1H24 result on Monday, 26 August.</li><li>With unit sales known, and narrow underlying earnings guidance, our key points of interest for the result are: (1) sales margins and the breakdown between new sale and resale gains.</li><li>We estimate 1H24 resales margins of 25% versus 26% in 1H23 and consensus of ~27%.</li></ul>

Summerset (SUM) will report its 1H24 result on Monday, 26 August.With unit sales known, and narrow underlying earnings guidance, our key points of interest for the result are: (1) sales margins and the breakdown between new sale and resale gains.We estimate 1H24 resales margins of 25% versus 26% in 1H23 and consensus of ~27%.

Summerset Group - 1H24 Preview — Margins and Metrics

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>On 22 July, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a> entered a scheme implementation agreement with Stonepeak at NZ$1.70, a 65.0% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metlifecare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19219:1" rel="noopener">Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ)</a> precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive, and shareholders representing 18% of outstanding shares are supportive. At the last close and for a November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.9%/14.2%.  </li>
</ul>


On 22 July, Arvida (ARV NZ) entered a scheme implementation agreement with Stonepeak at NZ$1.70, a 65.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
The transaction will require OIO approval, statutory supervisors' consent and shareholder approval. The Metlifecare Ltd (MET NZ) precedent suggests that the OIO and statutory supervisor should be forthcoming.
The offer is attractive, and shareholders representing 18% of outstanding shares are supportive. At the last close and for a November payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.9%/14.2%.  


Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Stonepeak’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.70

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvida-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14485:1" rel="noopener">Arvida (ARV NZ)</a>, a leading retirement living and aged care service provider in New Zealand, <a href="https://www.arvida.co.nz/investors/nzx-releases/release/arvida-board-unanimously-recommends-stonepeak-acquisition-38581" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a Scheme from PE-outfit Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed. </li>
<li>The Offer has unanimous board support. ~18% of shares out are supportive. Standard Scheme voting applies. Consent from NZ's Overseas Investment Office also required. </li>
<li>A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in 4Q24 with implementation in the same quarter. Optics are a tad opportunistic; but this looks priced to complete. </li>
</ul>



Arvida (ARV NZ), a leading retirement living and aged care service provider in New Zealand, announced a Scheme from PE-outfit Stonepeak at NZ$1.70/share, in cash, a 65% premium to undisturbed. 
The Offer has unanimous board support. ~18% of shares out are supportive. Standard Scheme voting applies. Consent from NZ's Overseas Investment Office also required. 
A Scheme Meeting is expected to be held in 4Q24 with implementation in the same quarter. Optics are a tad opportunistic; but this looks priced to complete. 


New Zealand

Summerset Group Holdings Ltd. is a profit-oriented entity and develops, owns and operates integrated retirement villages, rest homes and hospitals for the elderly within New Zealand.

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Summerset Group Holdings (SUM NZ)

Arvida (ARV NZ): 25th Sept Vote On Stonepeak's Offer

Trading at a gross/annualised spread of 3.0%/15.4%.That's reasonable. Do run a ruler over other Kiwi retirement village plays such as Ryman...

David Blennerhassett

Summerset Group - 1H24 Result — New Metrics, New Valuation

We estimate ~20% annuity EPS CAGR over the next five years. SUM trades on a ~33x 12 month forward annuity EPS versus its average since 2016 of ~35x.

Forsyth Barr

Summerset Group - 1H24 Preview — Margins and Metrics

With unit sales known, and narrow underlying earnings guidance, our key points of interest for the result are: (1) sales margins and the breakdown...

Forsyth Barr

Arvida Group (ARV NZ): Stonepeak’s Binding Proposal at NZ$1.70

The offer is attractive, and shareholders representing 18% of outstanding shares are supportive. At the last close and for a November payment, the...

Arun George

Arvida (ARV NZ): Stonepeak's Offer

Assuming mid-Dec payment, this is trading at a reasonable gross/annualised spread of 4.9%/12.6%. Also run a ruler over other NZ peers such as...

David Blennerhassett

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