Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

China National Building Material / Event-Driven

China National Building Material (3323 HK)

<ul>
<li>On the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1206/2024120601604.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">6th December</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a> (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>The thrust of the buyback lifts the stake of CNBM's parent - the CNBM Parent Concert Group - to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver.</li>
<li>Pre-Cons were satisfied on the <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0124/2025012401173.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">24th Jan</a>. The independent H-class shareholders vote for the waiver is on the 19th Feb. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. Implied back-end price is well down. </li>
</ul>


On the 6th December, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), a leading PRC building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
The thrust of the buyback lifts the stake of CNBM's parent - the CNBM Parent Concert Group - to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating a whitewash waiver.
Pre-Cons were satisfied on the 24th Jan. The independent H-class shareholders vote for the waiver is on the 19th Feb. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. Implied back-end price is well down. 


CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An "Avoid" Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>JIC announced a "mid-February" start date for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric (6967 JP)</a>'s Tender Offer. That's a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.</li>
<li>What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP)</a>, short <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macromill-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24026:1" rel="noopener">Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)</a>'s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.</li>
</ul>


JIC announced a "mid-February" start date for Shinko Electric (6967 JP)'s Tender Offer. That's a trifle disappointing based on when SAMR approved, but there are lots of people involved here.
What has been the long-term trend and the trend of the last two years is different. Be long Tsuruha (3391 JP), short Welcia (3141 JP) until above 4.5x, maybe 4.8x.

Macromill, Inc (3978 JP)'s reward/risk ratio over the next year of buying at ¥1,250 and seeing what happens is quite good, especially if the deal breaks.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

<ul>
<li>I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. </li>
<li>One new deal was discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/city-developments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:57:1" rel="noopener">City Developments (CIT SP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/millennium-copthorne-hotels-nz-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5040:1" rel="noopener">Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avjennings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12578:1" rel="noopener">AVJennings (AVJ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 48 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. 
One new deal was discussed this week: City Developments (CIT SP)'s Offer for Millennium &amp; Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ).
Key updates/news took place on: Insignia Financial (IFL AU), AVJennings (AVJ AU), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Canvest (1381 HK), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), and Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP). 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

Malaysia Airports Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 17th January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)</a>'s Offer was <a href="https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=239237&amp;name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extended</a> to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.</li>
<li>The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to<a href="https://disclosure.bursamalaysia.com/FileAccess/apbursaweb/download?id=239254&amp;name=EA_DS_ATTACHMENTS" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> lower the acceptance threshold</a> to 85% from 90%. </li>
<li>Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly. </li>
</ul>


On the 17th January, Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)'s Offer was extended to the 24th January. Shares held by the Consortium plus tendering was then 86.18%. This looked done.
The closing date of the Offer could have been pushed out to 4th Feb. However the consortium has now opted to lower the acceptance threshold to 85% from 90%. 
Because of the revision, shareholders can withdraw shares tendered before the 28th January. But why would they? This is now very much done. And trading accordingly. 


Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion

<ul>
<li>On the 17th Jan, CC Capital lifted is indicative Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a> to A$4.60/share from A$4.30/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Limited, non-exclusive due diligence was subsequently provided.</li>
<li>As discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/173397/Insignia%20Financial%20(IFL%20AU):%20Bumpity%20Bumpity.%20Expect%20Bain%20To%20Match%20-%20Or%20Exceed%20-%20CC%20Capital's%20Terms.%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/RiVBa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match - Or Exceed - CC Capital's Term</a>, I expected Bain to match CC Capital's terms.</li>
<li>Today Bain did just that, tabling a NBIO at A$4.60/share. Bain was also provided with limited, non-exclusive due diligence.</li>
</ul>


On the 17th Jan, CC Capital lifted is indicative Offer for Insignia Financial (IFL AU) to A$4.60/share from A$4.30/share, a ~50% premium to undisturbed. Limited, non-exclusive due diligence was subsequently provided.
As discussed in Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bumpity Bumpity. Expect Bain To Match - Or Exceed - CC Capital's Term, I expected Bain to match CC Capital's terms.
Today Bain did just that, tabling a NBIO at A$4.60/share. Bain was also provided with limited, non-exclusive due diligence.


Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital's Terms. And Also Afforded DD

China

Sun Art Retail Group operates hypermarkets, superstores, and membership stores under the RT-Mart, RT-Super, and M-Club brands, alongside online sales channels in the People's Republic of China. The company also provides consulting, investment, procurement, wholesaling, and retailing services. The Group was established on December 13, 2000, and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Sun Art Retail Group (6808 HK)

CNBM (3323 HK): This Is An "Avoid" Ahead Of 19th Feb H-Class Shareholder Vote

If ~45% of independent H-share class shareholders tenders, pro-ration would be ~42%, implying a back-end B/E price of HK$3.28/share.This is an...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shinko Elec, Tsuruha/Welcia, Macromill, Sun Corp/Cellebrite, MicroStrategy

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A:Millennium & Copthorne, Insignia, AVJennings, Henlius, Canvest, Makino Milling

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Lower Acceptance Condition Assures Completion

This is done. Assuming the offer turns unconditional on (or around) the 28th January, payment is expected within 10 days or around the 7th...

David Blennerhassett

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): Bain Matches CC Capital's Terms. And Also Afforded DD

Both Offers remain non-binding. IFL has now engaged. (I'd think) Tanarra is supportive here. I still would not be paying through terms. Currently...

David Blennerhassett

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