Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

A couple of minutes before the AM session close yesterday, the Nikkei Inc released a <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO48537880U9A810C1I00000/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">story</a> saying that the Special Committee formed to help <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> management decide whether to enter merger talks with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP)</a> (commonly known as "MatsuKiyo") or with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sugi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9255:1" rel="noopener">Sugi Holdings (7649 JP)</a> has decided to go with MatsuKiyo. The cocokara Board of Directors looked at the same information and inputs, and they agreed with the panel that the synergy effect was greater if they joined with MatsumotoKiyoshi. cocokara shares immediately popped 9.5% before settling +6.9% at lunch. MatsuKiyo popped as well.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/095/696/original/Screenshot%202019-08-14%20at%205.16.51%20PM.png?1565774282" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="95696"></figure><div class="content-caption">source: tradingview.com, Quiddity</div>Over the lunch break, cocokara fine released a <a href="https://corp.cocokarafine.co.jp/news/pdf/20190814_TD01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statement</a> (Japanese only for now; English will be in the Discussion Posts below if it comes) saying similar, and that they would enter exclusive negotiations with Matsumoto Kiyoshi on joining, with an eye to concluding a basic agreement, followed by a final agreement. When the market opened in the afternoon, both fell, then both slowly rose back into the end of the day. cocokara ended up 1.3%; Matsukiyo fell 2.2% on the day. The share price ratio closed at 1.689.The panel convened in mid-June to study the matter looked at product policy, store opening areas, the organizational structure of the two enterprises, and decided that the synergy effects with MatsuKiyo were significant. Apparently MatsuKiyo submitted two proposals - capital tie-up as first envisaged earlier in April and "management integration" (which means a full joining (merger or holdco)).On a pro-forma basis (using end-March numbers), the combination would run 3,008 stores and have almost ¥1 trillion in sales (¥976.4bn in FY18) against the current number one and number two <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a> with ¥670-695 billion in segment sales each this past year. This comes as something of a surprise. I thought Sugi would end up being the preferred partner for reasons of culture, overlap (lack thereof), and Cocokara's desire to get into healthcare services, where Sugi already has a tie-up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medpeer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4090:1" rel="noopener">Medpeer Inc (6095 JP)</a>. I also figured Sugi might offer better terms. I would note that this is still not a done deal. Usually, two firms will talk informally, then the boards will decide management teams should talk formally after the ground has been broken. In this case the informal talks to understand synergy and culture appear not to have been completed before we got to the Independent Committee so in this case the parents have decided which potential spouse is better before the kids have done the speed dating.A full discussion is below the fold.<hr> For more on this subject, see my previous piece <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cocokara-fine-cocokara" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30197" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine は Cocokara いいね*</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/michael-causton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2415" rel="noopener">Michael Causton</a>'s excellent and informative pieces on the deal and the sector <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyo-and-cocokara-fine-tie-to-shake-up-drugstore-sector" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29890" rel="noopener">Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-drugstores-set-to-expand-further" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28119" rel="noopener">Japan Drugstores Set to Expand Further</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/drug-fuelled-marriages-and-macho-shachos-in-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30346" rel="noopener">Drug-Fuelled Marriages and Macho Shachos* in Japan</a>. Furthermore, two of his recent big picture pieces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japanese-retailing-the-big-disruption-and-opportunity-in-the-next-5-years" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30770" rel="noopener">Japanese Retailing: The Big Disruption – and Opportunity – in the Next 5 Years</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-in-the-next-5-10-years" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30771" rel="noopener">Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing in the Next 5-10 Years</a> are excellent backdrop, with the latter providing the SWOTs for the sector.For more information on Japanese Tender Offers and M&amp;A - how they work and how they unfold - please refer to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-japan-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide</a>.

A couple of minutes before the AM session close yesterday, the Nikkei Inc released a story saying that the Special Committee formed to help cocokara Fine (3098 JP) management decide whether to enter merger talks with Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP) (commonly known as "MatsuKiyo") or with Sugi Holdings (7649 JP) has decided to go with MatsuKiyo. The cocokara Board of Directors looked at the same information and inputs, and they agreed with the panel that the synergy effect was greater if they joined with MatsumotoKiyoshi. cocokara shares immediately popped 9.5% before settling +6.9% at lunch. MatsuKiyo popped as well.  source: tradingview.com, QuiddityOver the lunch break, cocokara fine released a statement (Japanese only for now; English will be in the Discussion Posts below if it comes) saying similar, and that they would enter exclusive negotiations with Matsumoto Kiyoshi on joining, with an eye to concluding a basic agreement, followed by a final agreement. When the market opened in the afternoon, both fell, then both slowly rose back into the end of the day. cocokara ended up 1.3%; Matsukiyo fell 2.2% on the day. The share price ratio closed at 1.689.The panel convened in mid-June to study the matter looked at product policy, store opening areas, the organizational structure of the two enterprises, and decided that the synergy effects with MatsuKiyo were significant. Apparently MatsuKiyo submitted two proposals - capital tie-up as first envisaged earlier in April and "management integration" (which means a full joining (merger or holdco)).On a pro-forma basis (using end-March numbers), the combination would run 3,008 stores and have almost ¥1 trillion in sales (¥976.4bn in FY18) against the current number one and number two Welcia Holdings (3141 JP) and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP) with ¥670-695 billion in segment sales each this past year. This comes as something of a surprise. I thought Sugi would end up being the preferred partner for reasons of culture, overlap (lack thereof), and Cocokara's desire to get into healthcare services, where Sugi already has a tie-up with Medpeer Inc (6095 JP). I also figured Sugi might offer better terms. I would note that this is still not a done deal. Usually, two firms will talk informally, then the boards will decide management teams should talk formally after the ground has been broken. In this case the informal talks to understand synergy and culture appear not to have been completed before we got to the Independent Committee so in this case the parents have decided which potential spouse is better before the kids have done the speed dating.A full discussion is below the fold. For more on this subject, see my previous piece Cocokara Fine は Cocokara いいね* and Michael Causton's excellent and informative pieces on the deal and the sector Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector, Japan Drugstores Set to Expand Further, and Drug-Fuelled Marriages and Macho Shachos* in Japan. Furthermore, two of his recent big picture pieces Japanese Retailing: The Big Disruption – and Opportunity – in the Next 5 Years and Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing in the Next 5-10 Years are excellent backdrop, with the latter providing the SWOTs for the sector.For more information on Japanese Tender Offers and M&amp;A - how they work and how they unfold - please refer to the Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide.

Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/001/original/2019-07-13_16-16-31.png?1563002212" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93001"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/005/original/2019-07-13_16-25-24.png?1563002742" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93005"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/020/original/2019-07-14_06-28-16.png?1563053334" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93020"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/024/original/2019-07-14_06-45-29.png?1563054338" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93024"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>VALUE TRADED RATIO - The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. <div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/025/original/2019-07-14_06-47-40.png?1563054585" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93025"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>TORAKU INDEX - Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  <div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/026/original/2019-07-14_06-54-51.png?1563054906" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93026"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>VOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The Retail and Restaurant Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. REITs remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the Information Technology and Internet Sectors are the 'tema-du-jour' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are Metals, Banks, UtilitiesTransportation,  and Multi-Industry.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/028/original/2019-07-14_07-31-40.png?1563057109" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93028"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The Retail Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha (3391 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">, and </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lawson-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1040:1" rel="noopener">Lawson (2651 JP)</a>. Electrical Equipment has suffered from weakness in component stocks <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alps-alpine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12001:1" rel="noopener">Alps Alpine (6770 JP)</a> (-38% over one year), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata (6981 JP)</a> (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/scott-foster" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1134" rel="noopener">Scott Foster</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/murata-mfg-6981-jp-buy-on-decline-for-the-long-term" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30919" rel="noopener">(Buy on Decline for the Long Term</a>), and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fanuc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:752:1" rel="noopener">Fanuc (6954 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/komatsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1" rel="noopener">Komatsu (6301 JP)</a> have weighed on the Machinery Sector.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/093/031/original/2019-07-14_07-44-47.png?1563057897" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="93031"></figure></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>SECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">OBIC (4684 JP)</a>, Other Commerical Products (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a>, and Commercial Services (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/recruit-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15070:1" rel="noopener">Recruit 6098 JP).</a> We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-sumitomo-metal-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)</a>) <div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia (3141 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yaskawa-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2458:1" rel="noopener">Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pola-orbis-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2287:1" rel="noopener">Pola Orbis (4927 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sekisui-house-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1" rel="noopener">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:840:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/obic-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1273:1" rel="noopener">Obic (4684 JP)</a>.</div>


Source: Japan Analytics
MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has exceeded the 50-Day Moving Average for the first time since 26th April. Over the last two weeks, the Total Market Value has gained 1.7% in both Yen and US dollar times. For the previous twelve months, the equity market has moved in line with the US dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate. It remains to be seen how the 'gap' that has opened up in the last month will be closed. Any further strength in the Yen from current levels will likely see the market slip below the 50-Day Moving Average again.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVALUE TRADED RATIO - The Value Traded Ratio (Value Traded/Total Market Value) has seen two new eighteen-month lows. If the three days around Christmas are excluded, the current apathy towards Japanese equities is the most extreme since 2012 and is confirmed by recent BAML investor surveys. In the past, such periods of inactivity (marked"▲"above)  have preceded changes in market direction, more often upwards rather than downwards and suggest the current rally has more 'legs'. 
 Source: Japan AnalyticsTORAKU INDEX - Conversely, the Toraku advance/decline index is suggesting a degree of caution having breached the 120 'overbought' line for only the third time in eighteen months. Combining this analysis with the Value Traded Ratio, there is scope for a short-term upward move akin to that of October 2018 to be followed by a sharper downward trend into the autumn.  
 Source: Japan AnalyticsVOLUME SCORE TIMELINE - The lull in market turnover is confirmed in the greener 'bias' in our Sector volume timeline. The Retail and Restaurant Sectors are hot as we are in the middle of the quarterly results announcements for February/May/August/November year-end companies. REITs remain the 'go-to' defensive Sector while the Information Technology and Internet Sectors are the 'tema-du-jour' - to mix language metaphors. The 'untouchables' are Metals, Banks, UtilitiesTransportation,  and Multi-Industry.
 Source: Japan Analytics3-MONTH SECTOR CONTRIBUTION - Over the last three months, a long Telcos/short Autos strategy would have yielded 82 basis points of performance. The Retail Sector has responded well to the results released so far led by drugstores Welcia (3141 JP) and Tsuruha (3391 JP), Fast Retailing (9983 JP), and Lawson (2651 JP). Electrical Equipment has suffered from weakness in component stocks Alps Alpine (6770 JP) (-38% over one year), Murata (6981 JP) (see Scott Foster's (Buy on Decline for the Long Term), and Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP), while SMC (6273 JP), Fanuc (6954 JP), and Komatsu (6301 JP) have weighed on the Machinery Sector.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsSECTOR SCORE MATRIX - Arranging our cap-weighted Sector Relative Price Scores and Results &amp; Revisions Scores in a four-quadrant matrix whose extremes are Contrarian Sell, Contrarian Buy, Unrequited Growth, and Ex-Growth suggest profit-taking in Information Technology (OBIC (4684 JP), Other Commerical Products (Hoya Corp (7741 JP), and Commercial Services (Recruit 6098 JP). We are not contrarian enough to fall into the banking 'trap', however, the Metals Sector may offer some 'crumbs' of comfort for those in need of a deep value 'fix' (Nippon Steel &amp; Sumitomo Metal (5401 JP)) In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, scores and valuation in more detail, as well as Company Results &amp; Revisions and individual stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on Welcia (3141 JP), Daiseki (9793 JP), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JP), Pola Orbis (4927 JP), Sekisui House (1928 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP), and Obic (4684 JP).

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Equity Bottom-Up

Two of the country’s largest mass market drugstore operators announced talks about a new tie-up last month. If it happens, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2259" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15447" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> will jointly run a drugstore operation more than a third larger than any current rival.
In this fast developing sector, such a move will not be taken lying down by rivals and could well stimulate a rush of similar tie-ups over the next year.

Two of the country’s largest mass market drugstore operators announced talks about a new tie-up last month. If it happens, Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) will jointly run a drugstore operation more than a third larger than any current rival.
In this fast developing sector, such a move will not be taken lying down by rivals and could well stimulate a rush of similar tie-ups over the next year.

Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/080/230/original/2019-02-26_16-49-25.png?1551182690" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="80230"></figure>
Source: Japan Analytics
</div>
LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 
<ul>
<li>The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.</li>
<li>By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.</li>
<li>As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.
<ul>
<li>In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. </li>
<li>For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.</li>
<li>The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   </li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.</li>
</ul>



Source: Japan Analytics

LARGE CAP RESULTS &amp; REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions announcements covers the Results &amp; Revision Scores for Japan's 785 larger capitalisation companies with a market capitalisation of over ¥100b.
In the DETAIL section below we look at:- 

The 30 top and bottom-ranked companies by Results &amp; Revision Score as well as the top and bottom thirty ranked by change in score over the last quarter and provide brief comments on companies and topics of note.
By comparing Results Scores and Forecast/Revision Scores, we sort companies into'Optimists', 'Pessimists', 'Increasingly Optimistic' and 'Increasingly Pessimistic' categories.
As shown above, the relationship between the Results &amp; Revision Score (RRS) and our Relative Price Score (RPS) for each company and divide the large-cap universe into four 'quadrants' - 'Contrarian Buy' (Low RRS &amp; Low RPS) , 'Contrarian Sell' (High RRS &amp; High RPS), 'Peak Growth' (High RRS &amp; Low RPS) and 'Ex-Growth/Turnaround'  (Low RRS &amp; High RPS), highlighting the outliers in each quadrant.

In the two 'Contrarian' quadrants, the market is aligned with the current earnings momentum of the companies suggesting opportunities exist only for those willing or brave enough to take a contrarian view. 
For 'Peak Growth', the market is calling for a downturn in momentum that has yet to be reflected in quarterly earnings. Where the cycle is more prolonged than expected, there are often opportunities for short-term rebounds in what are normally relatively-inexpensive companies.
The 'Ex-Growth' quadrant often consists of former 'Contrarian Sell's where the market is reluctant to acknowledge that the cycle has turned. This quadrant can also contain 'Turnarounds' - formerly 'Contrarian Buys' where the market is correctly anticipating a change in fortunes.   


Finally, we provide tables of the top and bottom five ranked companies in each of our 30 Sectors.


🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

Japan

SUNDRUG CO., LTD. operates an outlet drug store chain primarily in the Tokyo area.  The Company sells mainly medicines, cosmetics, baby care products, and household utensils.  Sundrug supplies merchandise to franchise stores.  The Company also operates a real estate business.

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Sundrug Co Ltd (9989 JP)

Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended

A couple of minutes before the AM session close yesterday, the Nikkei Inc released a story saying that the Special Committee formed to help...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has...

Campbell Gunn

Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector

Two of the country’s largest mass market drugstore operators announced talks about a new tie-up last month. If it happens, Matsumotokiyoshi...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Cocokara (3098) Going With MatsuKiyo (3088) But Ratio Overextended

A couple of minutes before the AM session close yesterday, the Nikkei Inc released a story saying that the Special Committee formed to help...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Market Update - Levitating on Thin Air

MOVING AVERAGE BREAKOUT - Japanese equities have now risen by 5.1% since the low of 4th June and, since July 1st, the Total Market Value has...

Campbell Gunn

Matsukiyo and Cocokara Fine Tie to Shake up Drugstore Sector

Two of the country’s largest mass market drugstore operators announced talks about a new tie-up last month. If it happens, Matsumotokiyoshi...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/​Peak & Ex-Growth

LARGE CAP RESULTS & REVISION SCORES - The final instalment of our series of reviews of Japan's most recent earnings and revisions...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 Japan • Winter Large Cap Results & Revision Scores - Contrarian Buys & Sells/Peak & Ex-Growth