Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this report, we review our IPO investment research in 2022, including the performance of our calls.</li>
<li>The accuracy rate of our calls on IPOs this year was 79% (15 calls right, 4 calls wrong), higher than our average accurate rate of 77% from 2017 to 2022.</li>
<li>In 2022, the 12 stocks (positive ratings) were up 50.1% on average from their IPO prices. The 7 stocks (negative ratings) were down 11.2% on average from their IPO prices. </li>
</ul>


In this report, we review our IPO investment research in 2022, including the performance of our calls.
The accuracy rate of our calls on IPOs this year was 79% (15 calls right, 4 calls wrong), higher than our average accurate rate of 77% from 2017 to 2022.
In 2022, the 12 stocks (positive ratings) were up 50.1% on average from their IPO prices. The 7 stocks (negative ratings) were down 11.2% on average from their IPO prices. 


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 11 inclusions and 11 exclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> at the December rebalance to be implemented at the close on 8 December.</li>
<li>We had forecast most of the changes (10 adds and 9 deletes), so there are a few surprises. The inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sillajen-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22838:1" rel="noopener">SillaJen Inc (215600 KS)</a> is the biggest one.</li>
<li>The adds to the index become short sell eligible from the open of trading on 9 December while the deletions will not be short sell eligible from the same time.</li>
</ul>


There are 11 inclusions and 11 exclusions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the December rebalance to be implemented at the close on 8 December.
We had forecast most of the changes (10 adds and 9 deletes), so there are a few surprises. The inclusion of SillaJen Inc (215600 KS) is the biggest one.
The adds to the index become short sell eligible from the open of trading on 9 December while the deletions will not be short sell eligible from the same time.


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes with a Couple of Surprises

<ul>
<li>Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, and KRX 300 rebalance changes today. Lotte Confectionery will be added and Samyang Holdings will be deleted from the KOSPI 200 index.</li>
<li>The rebalances of these Korean indices are regularly updated twice a year. The changes to these indices will be effective starting 9 December. </li>
<li>The potential exclusion candidates for KOSPI 200 in 2023 include K Car, Handsome, HS Enterprise, Zinus, and Hyundai Home Shopping. </li>
</ul>


Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, and KRX 300 rebalance changes today. Lotte Confectionery will be added and Samyang Holdings will be deleted from the KOSPI 200 index.
The rebalances of these Korean indices are regularly updated twice a year. The changes to these indices will be effective starting 9 December. 
The potential exclusion candidates for KOSPI 200 in 2023 include K Car, Handsome, HS Enterprise, Zinus, and Hyundai Home Shopping. 


KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Changes + KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Exclusion Candidates in 2023

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>Given SunEel's market cap and the level of relevance to the rechargeable battery business, KODEX will likely include it this time around.</li>
<li>If you are looking for a short-selling opportunity, I recommend adjusting the timing after this KODEX ETF passive event.</li>
<li>If you are long targeting the KOSDAQ 150 inclusion, I recommend taking a slightly longer holding window to additionally target the passive inflow of the KODEX ETF.</li>
</ul>


Given SunEel's market cap and the level of relevance to the rechargeable battery business, KODEX will likely include it this time around.
If you are looking for a short-selling opportunity, I recommend adjusting the timing after this KODEX ETF passive event.
If you are long targeting the KOSDAQ 150 inclusion, I recommend taking a slightly longer holding window to additionally target the passive inflow of the KODEX ETF.


KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing & SungEel Hitech Trading Situation

<ul>
<li>An ideal timing of selling/shorting Sungeel Hitech would be after its stock is included in KOSDAQ 150 but before the end of the 6 months lock up period. </li>
<li>Sungeel Hitech is a likely candidate for an early entry in KOSDAQ 150 in December.</li>
<li>Sungeel Hitech's 6 months end of lock-up period is on 28 January 2023. There are 0.31 million shares (2.6% of total outstanding shares) that can be sold after this period.</li>
</ul>


An ideal timing of selling/shorting Sungeel Hitech would be after its stock is included in KOSDAQ 150 but before the end of the 6 months lock up period. 
Sungeel Hitech is a likely candidate for an early entry in KOSDAQ 150 in December.
Sungeel Hitech's 6 months end of lock-up period is on 28 January 2023. There are 0.31 million shares (2.6% of total outstanding shares) that can be sold after this period.


Sungeel Hitech: Timing Trading Angle (End of Lock Up Period & Early Inclusion of KOSDAQ 150)

South Korea

Sungeel Hitech Co., Ltd. operates as a leading secondary battery recycling company. The Company provides lithium ion battery recycling, sustainable rechargeable battery recycling, waste batteries full circulatory recycling, and circulation services. Sungeel Hitech markets its products worldwide.

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Sungeel Hitech (365340 KS)

Recap of Our IPO Research in 2022

In this report, we review our IPO investment research in 2022, including the performance of our calls. The accuracy rate of our calls on IPOs this...

Douglas Kim

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 11 Changes with a Couple of Surprises

There are 11 changes at the Dec rebal: mostly in line with forecasts. SillaJen is a surprise add; Devsisters is a surprise delete. Short interest...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Rebalance Changes + KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Exclusion Candidates in 2023

Korea Exchange announced the KOSPI 200, KOSDAQ 150, and KRX 300 rebalance changes today. Lotte Confectionery will be added and Samyang Holdings...

Douglas Kim

KODEX Battery ETF Rebalancing & SungEel Hitech Trading Situation

This post examines the KODEX Battery ETF rebalancing in December and how it relates to SungEel Hitech's flow trading and shorting situation.

Sanghyun Park

Sungeel Hitech: Timing Trading Angle (End of Lock Up Period & Early Inclusion of KOSDAQ 150)

An ideal timing of selling/shorting Sungeel Hitech would be after its stock is included in KOSDAQ 150 but before the end of the 6 months lock up...

Douglas Kim

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