Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.</li>
<li>We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.</li>
<li>With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We've been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&amp;P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.


Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. </li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.</li>
<li>DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in Jan9,2025 report how we viewed the pullback as a buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US. 
$116 support held perfectly, and now both ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 are coiling just below all-time highs, likely setting up for major breakouts. ACWI is now breaking out.
DXY and 10-Year Treasury yield are both topping, a crucial risk-on signal for global equities. More and more countries breaking out. Actionable Themes: Technology, Services, Communications, Industrials, Gold Miners, Financials


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<ul>
<li>In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, China Vanke, Sunny Optical</li>
<li>
In the US, the January CPI came in higher than expected at 3.0% y-o-y (2.9% e / 2.9% p) and 0.5% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% p). The core CPI (excluding food and energy) accelerated slightly to 3.3% y-o-y (3.1% e / 3.2% p) and 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).
</li>
<li>Speaking after the CPI data release, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the CPI figure came in above nearly every forecast, but cautioned against overreacting to one or two readings.</li>
</ul>


In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, China Vanke, Sunny Optical

In the US, the January CPI came in higher than expected at 3.0% y-o-y (2.9% e / 2.9% p) and 0.5% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.4% p). The core CPI (excluding food and energy) accelerated slightly to 3.3% y-o-y (3.1% e / 3.2% p) and 0.4% m-o-m (0.3% e / 0.2% p).

Speaking after the CPI data release, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the CPI figure came in above nearly every forecast, but cautioned against overreacting to one or two readings.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>BYD announced plans to offer its “God’s Eye” advanced intelligent driving system on all models priced above RMB100k and 3 models priced below 100k, during its “Vehicle Intelligent Strategy” event in Shenzhen on 10 Feb.</li><li>Initial rollout includes 21 models, all equipped with industry-leading specs with endto-end LLM, 5 mm-wave radars, 12 cameras and 12 ultrasonic radars.</li><li>We believe BYD’s acceleration of intelligent driving with strong new model pipeline will boost adoption of intelligent driving in China, and key beneficiaries include BYDE (ADAS/domain controller), Sunny Optical/Q-tech/Cowell (1415 HK, NR)/AAC (camera/LiDAR/radar), BOEVx (display), AAC Tech (acoustics) and Luxshare/FIT (connector).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BYD announced plans to offer its “God’s Eye” advanced intelligent driving system on all models priced above RMB100k and 3 models priced below 100k, during its “Vehicle Intelligent Strategy” event in Shenzhen on 10 Feb.Initial rollout includes 21 models, all equipped with industry-leading specs with endto-end LLM, 5 mm-wave radars, 12 cameras and 12 ultrasonic radars.We believe BYD’s acceleration of intelligent driving with strong new model pipeline will boost adoption of intelligent driving in China, and key beneficiaries include BYDE (ADAS/domain controller), Sunny Optical/Q-tech/Cowell (1415 HK, NR)/AAC (camera/LiDAR/radar), BOEVx (display), AAC Tech (acoustics) and Luxshare/FIT (connector).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Intelligence Driving: Implications of BYD’s “vehicle Intelligence Strategy” Event

<ul><li>Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better iPad/Mac (+15%/16%) and record Services GPM, offsetting iPhone miss (-1%) and China weakness (-11%).</li><li>For FY2Q25E, mgmt. guidance was better-than-feared, with revenue growth of low-to-mid-single digit, service sales growth of double digits and GPM of 46.5%-47.5%.</li><li>With Apple Intelligence rollouts in more markets and China’s smartphone subsidy in 1H25E, we expect new AI features and upcoming 5 new iPhone model will boost higher iPhone shipment in 2025.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better iPad/Mac (+15%/16%) and record Services GPM, offsetting iPhone miss (-1%) and China weakness (-11%).For FY2Q25E, mgmt. guidance was better-than-feared, with revenue growth of low-to-mid-single digit, service sales growth of double digits and GPM of 46.5%-47.5%.With Apple Intelligence rollouts in more markets and China’s smartphone subsidy in 1H25E, we expect new AI features and upcoming 5 new iPhone model will boost higher iPhone shipment in 2025.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Apple FY1Q25: Beat on IPad/Mac Offsetting China/ IPhone Weakness

China

Sunny Optical Technology Group Co., Limited designs and manufactures optical and optical related products. The Company's products include glass/plastic lenses, prisms, mobile phone camera modules, microscopes, surveying instruments, and other analytical instruments.

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Sunny Optical Technology Group (2382 HK)

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar $DXY = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI despite near-term downside risk. We remain bullish if $ACWI > $116,...

Vermilion Research

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in China, Europe, More; DXY & Yields Top

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact $ACWI $EAFE $EEM. More buys in China; Germany continues to lead Europe higher. Will...

Vermilion Research

Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Asia

In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: West China Cement, China Vanke, Sunny Optical

Lucror Analytics

Technology - Intelligence Driving: Implications of BYD’s “vehicle Intelligence Strategy” Event

BYD announced plans to offer its “God’s Eye” advanced intelligent driving system on all models priced above RMB100k and 3 models priced below 100k

CMB International

Technology - Apple FY1Q25: Beat on IPad/Mac Offsetting China/ IPhone Weakness

Apple (AAPL US, NR) reported FY1Q25 (CY4Q24) revenue of US$124.3bn (+4% YoY) and EPS of US$2.4 (+10% YoY), above market consensus, thanks to better...

CMB International

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