SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

CapitaLand Ascendas REIT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>With global inflation set to outpace global growth by 5% in 2022, the FTSE ST REIT Index has generated a 10% decline in total return this year, with the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index declining 22%.</li><li>This has brought the 5-year total return of the FTSE ST REIT Index to 15%, compared to 8% for the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index.</li><li>The partial rebound of the S-REIT Sector over the past month has also pared the FTSE ST REIT Index decline in total return for the 2022 year to 18 Nov to 10%, compared to the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index declining 22%.</li></ul>

With global inflation set to outpace global growth by 5% in 2022, the FTSE ST REIT Index has generated a 10% decline in total return this year, with the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index declining 22%.This has brought the 5-year total return of the FTSE ST REIT Index to 15%, compared to 8% for the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index.The partial rebound of the S-REIT Sector over the past month has also pared the FTSE ST REIT Index decline in total return for the 2022 year to 18 Nov to 10%, compared to the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index declining 22%.

S-REITs Narrow Discount to Book Value on Global Rate Outlook

<ul><li>Singapore’s 30 most traded stocks outside of the STI have seen ~S$670 million in net fund outflows in the 2022 YTD, with declines in October, bringing their average 2022 YTD decline in total return of the stocks to 5%.</li><li>Total returns of the five stocks over the 43 weeks varied from -10% for Riverstone to +202% for Golden Energy & Res.</li><li>Similarly, as energy stocks have led the global stock market this year, the four energy stocks tabled below have averaged 57% total returns over the past 43 weeks (with the median gain at 26%).</li></ul>

Singapore’s 30 most traded stocks outside of the STI have seen ~S$670 million in net fund outflows in the 2022 YTD, with declines in October, bringing their average 2022 YTD decline in total return of the stocks to 5%.Total returns of the five stocks over the 43 weeks varied from -10% for Riverstone to +202% for Golden Energy & Res.Similarly, as energy stocks have led the global stock market this year, the four energy stocks tabled below have averaged 57% total returns over the past 43 weeks (with the median gain at 26%).

Mixed Oct Returns for Singapore's Most Traded Non-STI stocks

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>REIT Watch - Retail S-Reits see double-digit pickup; downtown malls shine Retail sales in Singapore went up by 13 per cent year on year (yoy) in August, marking its fifth consecutive month of double-digit yoy growth.</li><li>CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust reported 15.9 per cent yoy growth in retail tenant sales and 12.5 per cent yoy growth in shopper traffic for H1 2022.</li></ul>

REIT Watch - Retail S-Reits see double-digit pickup; downtown malls shine Retail sales in Singapore went up by 13 per cent year on year (yoy) in August, marking its fifth consecutive month of double-digit yoy growth.CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust reported 15.9 per cent yoy growth in retail tenant sales and 12.5 per cent yoy growth in shopper traffic for H1 2022.

REIT Watch - Retail S-Reits see double-digit pickup; downtown malls shine

<ul><li>REIT Watch - Outperformance in S-Reits in STI reserve list Post the June review, the STI reserve list, which consists of the 5 highest ranking non-constituents of the STI, were: Olam International, Suntec Reit, Keppel Reit, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MNACT).</li><li>Four out of the 5 stocks in the STI reserve list were in the S-Reits and Property Trusts sector.</li></ul>

REIT Watch - Outperformance in S-Reits in STI reserve list Post the June review, the STI reserve list, which consists of the 5 highest ranking non-constituents of the STI, were: Olam International, Suntec Reit, Keppel Reit, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MNACT).Four out of the 5 stocks in the STI reserve list were in the S-Reits and Property Trusts sector.

REIT Watch - Outperformance in S-Reits in STI reserve list

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In June-July I warned of a reinvestment trade into S-REITs due to the S$2.0-3.0bn cash-out by investors in Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and sellers into the SPHREIT Chain Offer.</li>
<li>Many investors who would need to re-allocate. The trade was to buy major S-REITs. From my last insight, a basket is up 5.3%. MCT has already topped out vs peers.</li>
<li>The question is.... is there still a trade left to run?</li>
</ul>


In June-July I warned of a reinvestment trade into S-REITs due to the S$2.0-3.0bn cash-out by investors in Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust and sellers into the SPHREIT Chain Offer.
Many investors who would need to re-allocate. The trade was to buy major S-REITs. From my last insight, a basket is up 5.3%. MCT has already topped out vs peers.
The question is.... is there still a trade left to run?


Singapore

Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust is a commercial real estate investment trust. The Trust invests in income-producing real estate that is primarily used for retail and/or office purposes.

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Suntec REIT (SUN SP)

S-REITs Narrow Discount to Book Value on Global Rate Outlook

With global inflation set to outpace global growth by 5% in 2022, the FTSE ST REIT Index has generated a 10% decline in total return this year,...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Mixed Oct Returns for Singapore's Most Traded Non-STI stocks

Singapore’s 30 most traded stocks outside of the STI have seen ~S$670 million in net fund outflows in the 2022 YTD, with declines in October,...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

REIT Watch - Retail S-Reits see double-digit pickup; downtown malls shine

REIT Watch - Retail S-Reits see double-digit pickup; downtown malls shine Retail sales in Singapore went up by 13 per cent year on year (yoy) in...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

REIT Watch - Outperformance in S-Reits in STI reserve list

REIT Watch - Outperformance in S-Reits in STI reserve list Post the June review, the STI reserve list, which consists of the 5 highest ranking...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Update on the S-REIT Re-Allocation Trade

The S-REIT Re-Allocation Basket is +5.3%(TR) from close after I wrote (25 July) to yesterday. Not enough excess value has traded. Should it run?...

Travis Lundy

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