Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe the criticism against Nongfu Spring will eventually help the company.</li>
<li>Catching the trend of sugar free, tea revenue surged by 83% in 2023.</li>
<li>The company achieved higher growth and higher margin, but its stock price is still flat.</li>
</ul>


We believe the criticism against Nongfu Spring will eventually help the company.
Catching the trend of sugar free, tea revenue surged by 83% in 2023.
The company achieved higher growth and higher margin, but its stock price is still flat.


Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Criticism Not a Concern, Strong Performance, But Flat Price, Buy

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japanese beer has long been famous for quality and quantity and today its top brands are major exports.</li>
<li>At home, however, the pandemic worsened a long-term decline in beer consumption (as well as wine and sake) as younger consumers switch to stronger drinks.</li>
<li>Unit sales have shrunk but alcohol per unit has soared as sales of highballs and Chuhai boom, forcing change on Japan's biggest beverage businesses like Kirin, Suntory, Sapporo and Asahi.</li>
</ul>


Japanese beer has long been famous for quality and quantity and today its top brands are major exports.
At home, however, the pandemic worsened a long-term decline in beer consumption (as well as wine and sake) as younger consumers switch to stronger drinks.
Unit sales have shrunk but alcohol per unit has soared as sales of highballs and Chuhai boom, forcing change on Japan's biggest beverage businesses like Kirin, Suntory, Sapporo and Asahi.


Less Beer and Sake Please, We're Japanese (But Lots More Highballs Thank You)

<ul>
<li>Japan’s consumer markets had a remarkably good year in 2023, despite the spectres of inflation and negative real wage growth marring consumer confidence. </li>
<li>These fears were offset by a desire to get out and spend some of the mounting savings. Those savings still rose a cumulative average of ¥1.45 million in 2023.</li>
<li>Covid and inflation forced major change and provided a solid footing for what is expected to be a good 2024 on the back of hopes for genuine real wage growth.</li>
</ul>


Japan’s consumer markets had a remarkably good year in 2023, despite the spectres of inflation and negative real wage growth marring consumer confidence. 
These fears were offset by a desire to get out and spend some of the mounting savings. Those savings still rose a cumulative average of ¥1.45 million in 2023.
Covid and inflation forced major change and provided a solid footing for what is expected to be a good 2024 on the back of hopes for genuine real wage growth.


2023-24 Japanese Consumer Market Trends Review

<ul>
<li>New regulations due in April are forcing Japan’s logistics industry to evolve rapidly and seek efficiencies to offset a drastic shortage of drivers.</li>
<li>Most firms are aware of the long-term gains that removing inefficiencies in the current system will lead to and should result in improved operating margins.</li>
<li>The government announced new support policies and many consumers say they are willing to accept slower deliveries, which should lower costs for e-commerce.</li>
</ul>


New regulations due in April are forcing Japan’s logistics industry to evolve rapidly and seek efficiencies to offset a drastic shortage of drivers.
Most firms are aware of the long-term gains that removing inefficiencies in the current system will lead to and should result in improved operating margins.
The government announced new support policies and many consumers say they are willing to accept slower deliveries, which should lower costs for e-commerce.


Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

<ul>
<li>The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 23% YoY in 1H23 from 15% YoY in 2H22 and 9% YoY in 1H22.</li>
<li>Tea revenue grew by 60% YoY in 1H23 as the company caught the fashion of sugar free.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 41% for yearend 2024.</li>
</ul>


The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 23% YoY in 1H23 from 15% YoY in 2H22 and 9% YoY in 1H22.
Tea revenue grew by 60% YoY in 1H23 as the company caught the fashion of sugar free.
We believe the stock has an upside of 41% for yearend 2024.


Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Tea Revenue Up by 60%, 40% Upside, Buy

Japan

Suntory Beverage & Food Ltd manufacture and sells beverages and food products worldwide. The company is a part of Suntory Holdings ltd.

Suntory Beverage & Food (2587 JP)

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Criticism Not a Concern, Strong Performance, But Flat Price, Buy

The criticism against Nongfu Spring eventually helps the company. Catching the fashion of sugar free, tea revenue surged by 83% in 2023. But its...

Ming Lu

Less Beer and Sake Please, We're Japanese (But Lots More Highballs Thank You)

Japanese beer exports thrive while domestic consumption declines due to younger consumers favoring stronger drinks like highballs and Chuhai,...

Michael Causton

2023-24 Japanese Consumer Market Trends Review

Despite concerns about inflation and negative real wage growth, Japan's consumer markets had a successful year in 2023 and sets the stage for a...

Michael Causton

Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

Japan's distribution industry is adapting to new regulations due in April, addressing driver shortages and resulting in new efficiencies that will...

Michael Causton

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Tea Revenue Up by 60%, 40% Upside, Buy

Tea revenue grew by 60% YoY in 1H23 as the company caught the fashion of sugar free. The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 23% YoY in...

Ming Lu

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Criticism Not a Concern, Strong Performance, But Flat Price, Buy

The criticism against Nongfu Spring eventually helps the company. Catching the fashion of sugar free, tea revenue surged by 83% in 2023. But its...

Ming Lu

Less Beer and Sake Please, We're Japanese (But Lots More Highballs Thank You)

​Japanese beer exports thrive while domestic consumption declines due to younger consumers favoring stronger drinks like highballs and Chuhai,...

Michael Causton

2023-24 Japanese Consumer Market Trends Review

​Despite concerns about inflation and negative real wage growth, Japan's consumer markets had a successful year in 2023 and sets the stage for a...

Michael Causton

Better Logistics, Slower Shipping, Lower Costs, Higher Profits

​Japan's distribution industry is adapting to new regulations due in April, addressing driver shortages and resulting in new efficiencies that will...

Michael Causton

Nongfu Spring (9633 HK): Tea Revenue Up by 60%, 40% Upside, Buy

Tea revenue grew by 60% YoY in 1H23 as the company caught the fashion of sugar free. The growth rate of total revenue accelerated to 23% YoY in...

Ming Lu

Japanese beer exports thrive while domestic consumption declines due to younger consumers favoring stronger drinks like highballs and Chuhai,...

Despite concerns about inflation and negative real wage growth, Japan's consumer markets had a successful year in 2023 and sets the stage for a...

Japan's distribution industry is adapting to new regulations due in April, addressing driver shortages and resulting in new efficiencies that will...