ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The headlines for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>'s recent results looked encouraging but the higher driver and consumer incentives hit revenues and profitability towards the end of the year but this is temporary.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a> is facing stiffer competition in the region, especially from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek-goto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> and Shopee Food but is defending its lead and preparing for higher growth in mobility requiring investment.</li>
<li>Increasing exposure in digital financial services plus more focus on verticals such as online groceries bodes well for future growth. A market cap of US$12.5bn with US$6.8bn in net cash.</li>
</ul>


The headlines for Grab's recent results looked encouraging but the higher driver and consumer incentives hit revenues and profitability towards the end of the year but this is temporary.

Grab (GRAB US) is facing stiffer competition in the region, especially from GoTo and Shopee Food but is defending its lead and preparing for higher growth in mobility requiring investment.
Increasing exposure in digital financial services plus more focus on verticals such as online groceries bodes well for future growth. A market cap of US$12.5bn with US$6.8bn in net cash.


Grab (GRAB US) - A Rough Ride for Now but Smoother Terrain Ahead

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumber-alfaria-trijaya-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15659:1" rel="noopener">Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ)</a> remains a leading player in Indonesian retail through its minimarkets with plans to accelerate store opening in 2022</li>
<li>The company reported strong 9M2021 results and we expect a strong seasonal finish to the year as mobility restrictions have relaxed in 4Q2021 further boosting demand</li>
<li>Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) trades on 24.9x FY22ER PER and 21.7x FY2023E PER versus its 5-year average of 36.7x, making it look attractive from a historical perspective.</li>
</ul>



Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) remains a leading player in Indonesian retail through its minimarkets with plans to accelerate store opening in 2022
The company reported strong 9M2021 results and we expect a strong seasonal finish to the year as mobility restrictions have relaxed in 4Q2021 further boosting demand
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) trades on 24.9x FY22ER PER and 21.7x FY2023E PER versus its 5-year average of 36.7x, making it look attractive from a historical perspective.


Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Back to Expansion Mode

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a> has faced a perfect storm of headwinds since its IPO with Omicron, US tapering fears, and a general tech sell down all contributing to share price weakness</li>
<li>The company continues to invest in broadening its product offering and recently acquired Jaya Grocer in Malaysia and a stake in mutual fund platform Bareksa in Indonesia. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (GRAB US)</a> looks to be on the cusp of a recovery in its mobility business with increasing scope and value-added in both online groceries and digital financial services. </li>
</ul>



Grab (GRAB US) has faced a perfect storm of headwinds since its IPO with Omicron, US tapering fears, and a general tech sell down all contributing to share price weakness
The company continues to invest in broadening its product offering and recently acquired Jaya Grocer in Malaysia and a stake in mutual fund platform Bareksa in Indonesia. 

Grab (GRAB US) looks to be on the cusp of a recovery in its mobility business with increasing scope and value-added in both online groceries and digital financial services. 


Private Capital Markets

Founded in 2010, Blibli was one of the pioneers of online shopping malls in Indonesia operating under a B2C model rather unlike its competitors, which have adopted a mixed approach with more focus on the C2C marketplace and adding B2C later. It has branched out to B2B, B2B2C, and B2G (government) and its target market is a more affluent consumer versus <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia</a> and Shopee. Given the private nature of the company, we view BliBli as the Dark Knight of Indonesian e-commerce. 
The company is owned by GDP Ventures which is part of Djarum Group, which owns one of the major tobacco companies in Indonesia as well as a controlling stake in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ),</a> Indonesia's largest private bank and leader in transactional banking.
BliBli has around 100,000 merchants selling 30,000 local and international brands on the platform covering a total of 16 product different categories.
It has around 18m monthly active users on the platform ranking number five in terms of visitors in 2Q2021, ahead of JD.id and behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lazada-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26148:1" rel="noopener">Lazada Group (LAZADA SP)</a>.
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BliBli uses a wide range of payment options including GoPay, which is not surprising since it is a shareholder in<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Gojek.</a> It has also invested in medical internet provider HaloDoc and took over travel platform Tiket.com in mid-2017.
The company has been bringing more MSMEs onto the platform that produce goods themselves rather than resell items from elsewhere. 
BliBli also offers free deliveries plus a multitude of payment options, with its own in-house wallet called BliPay but also uses a multitude of payment and financing options outlined below.
BliBli presents stiff competition with the other major players, with a strong backer in Djarum, which has deep pockets. It is increasingly diversified in its product offering and has its interests well-aligned with the government, especially with its push to bring MSMEs onto the platform.
The company recently announced that it would buy a 51% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/supra-boga-lestari-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16780:1" rel="noopener">Supra Boga Lestari (RANC IJ)</a>, which operates upscale supermarket chains including Ranch Market, The Gourmet, and Farmers Market. This potentially increases the company's exposure to online groceries. 
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BliBli is already said to have achieved unicorn status with a valuation of over US$1bn and has appointed advisors Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley ahead of a potential listing in early 2022 said to be in Jakarta. A valuation above US$1bn should be easily achievable on the first inspection and this IPO will attract the attention of both local and foreign investors.
</div>

Founded in 2010, Blibli was one of the pioneers of online shopping malls in Indonesia operating under a B2C model rather unlike its competitors, which have adopted a mixed approach with more focus on the C2C marketplace and adding B2C later. It has branched out to B2B, B2B2C, and B2G (government) and its target market is a more affluent consumer versus Tokopedia and Shopee. Given the private nature of the company, we view BliBli as the Dark Knight of Indonesian e-commerce. 
The company is owned by GDP Ventures which is part of Djarum Group, which owns one of the major tobacco companies in Indonesia as well as a controlling stake in Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ), Indonesia's largest private bank and leader in transactional banking.
BliBli has around 100,000 merchants selling 30,000 local and international brands on the platform covering a total of 16 product different categories.
It has around 18m monthly active users on the platform ranking number five in terms of visitors in 2Q2021, ahead of JD.id and behind Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) and Lazada Group (LAZADA SP).



BliBli uses a wide range of payment options including GoPay, which is not surprising since it is a shareholder in Gojek. It has also invested in medical internet provider HaloDoc and took over travel platform Tiket.com in mid-2017.
The company has been bringing more MSMEs onto the platform that produce goods themselves rather than resell items from elsewhere. 
BliBli also offers free deliveries plus a multitude of payment options, with its own in-house wallet called BliPay but also uses a multitude of payment and financing options outlined below.
BliBli presents stiff competition with the other major players, with a strong backer in Djarum, which has deep pockets. It is increasingly diversified in its product offering and has its interests well-aligned with the government, especially with its push to bring MSMEs onto the platform.
The company recently announced that it would buy a 51% stake in Supra Boga Lestari (RANC IJ), which operates upscale supermarket chains including Ranch Market, The Gourmet, and Farmers Market. This potentially increases the company's exposure to online groceries. 

BliBli is already said to have achieved unicorn status with a valuation of over US$1bn and has appointed advisors Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley ahead of a potential listing in early 2022 said to be in Jakarta. A valuation above US$1bn should be easily achievable on the first inspection and this IPO will attract the attention of both local and foreign investors.


Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

What's next for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/erajaya-swasembada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18869:1" rel="noopener">Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ)</a> after COVID-19 in Indonesia is finally seemed to be under control? Theoretically, the multiple has to come off a little and the revenue growth should stall but thanks to Google and WhatsApp security updates that require new smartphones, Erajaya will benefit from another few months of higher handset sales growth as well as a higher ASP that will drive the share price even higher. 
At 9x PER, Erajaya does not look expensive at all and has more room for upside. The Djarum group reportedly is willing to pay up to 14x PER for the acquisition of Erajaya, which is 40% above the current level.

What's next for Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) after COVID-19 in Indonesia is finally seemed to be under control? Theoretically, the multiple has to come off a little and the revenue growth should stall but thanks to Google and WhatsApp security updates that require new smartphones, Erajaya will benefit from another few months of higher handset sales growth as well as a higher ASP that will drive the share price even higher. 
At 9x PER, Erajaya does not look expensive at all and has more room for upside. The Djarum group reportedly is willing to pay up to 14x PER for the acquisition of Erajaya, which is 40% above the current level. 

Erajaya (ERAA): Beneficiary of WhatsApp and Google Update

Indonesia

PT Supra Boga Lestari Tbk operates supermarkets in Indonesia under brands such as Ranch Market, Farmers Market, The Gourmet by Ranch Market, Day2Day by Farmers Market, and Farmers Family by Farmers Market. Its stores offer a wide variety of products, including meat, poultry, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and specialty items like organic, superfood, gluten-free, vegan, and dairy products. The company also engages in online sales and trading and operation management activities. It was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Jakarta Barat, Indonesia.

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Supra Boga Lestari (RANC IJ)

Grab (GRAB US) - A Rough Ride for Now but Smoother Terrain Ahead

Grab's recent results looked encouraging in terms of headline GMV but the higher driver and consumer incentives hit revenues and profitability...

Angus Mackintosh

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - Back to Expansion Mode

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt (AMRT IJ) remains a leading player in Indonesian retail through its minimarkets with plans to accelerate store...

Angus Mackintosh

Grab (GRAB US) - After the Storm

Grab (GRAB US) looks to be on the cusp of a recovery in its mobility business with increasing scope and value-added in both online groceries and...

Angus Mackintosh

BliBli - Enter The Dark Knight

BliBli is the "Dark Knight" of Indonesian e-commerce, given its private nature, strong market presence, and unicorn status. It has plans to IPO in...

Angus Mackintosh

Erajaya (ERAA): Beneficiary of WhatsApp and Google Update

Google and WhatsApp security updates require new phones, Erajaya will benefit from another few months of higher handset sales growth as well as a...

Henry Soediarko

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