Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In this review, we highlight the importance for investors to: 1) not 'jump the gun' and sell on companies that are in decline; and 2) think logically about the macro picture, since those may have an impact on whether companies can recover or would lose relevance in the marketplace altogether.From our observations, the companies in Thailand that do turn around tend to follow one or more of these four measures, namely: 1) operations: a complete transformation rather than minor patch-ups (eg. KARMART, IVL); 2) competitive strategy: changing the frame of reference (PIZZA...now part of MINT); 3) debt restructuring (BLAND, TPI); and 4) marketing: re-branding (eg. DTAC, BTS). Whether you are stuck with certain investments or thinking about investing in potential turnaround plays, observing these four traits or steps could be helpful.

In this review, we highlight the importance for investors to: 1) not 'jump the gun' and sell on companies that are in decline; and 2) think logically about the macro picture, since those may have an impact on whether companies can recover or would lose relevance in the marketplace altogether.From our observations, the companies in Thailand that do turn around tend to follow one or more of these four measures, namely: 1) operations: a complete transformation rather than minor patch-ups (eg. KARMART, IVL); 2) competitive strategy: changing the frame of reference (PIZZA...now part of MINT); 3) debt restructuring (BLAND, TPI); and 4) marketing: re-branding (eg. DTAC, BTS). Whether you are stuck with certain investments or thinking about investing in potential turnaround plays, observing these four traits or steps could be helpful.

Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

SGX lists four Upstream Coal Plays: Geo Energy Resources, Resources Prima Group, BlackGold Natural Resources and Golden Energy &amp; Resources.Geo Energy Resources has been the strongest performer among the four upstream plays in the 2016 year to date with a 37.9% gain. On 12 August,  Geo Energy Group reported that for the six months ending 30 June 2016, company revenue was US$33 million compared to US$10 million for the same period a year ago.

SGX lists four Upstream Coal Plays: Geo Energy Resources, Resources Prima Group, BlackGold Natural Resources and Golden Energy &amp; Resources.Geo Energy Resources has been the strongest performer among the four upstream plays in the 2016 year to date with a 37.9% gain. On 12 August,  Geo Energy Group reported that for the six months ending 30 June 2016, company revenue was US$33 million compared to US$10 million for the same period a year ago.

Geo Energy Resources Led Upstream Coal Plays in 2016 YTD

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.</a><div>
<a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/mxK3sCSR" target="_blank">We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit</a>…</div>

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&amp;P and oil to provide support for a final uptick attempt later this week/early next week before the bear cycle resumes. Difficult to trade 2 day swings. We are allowing for a 2-3 day draw down followed by a final push up next week to re cycle shorts.
We look at support points in our long Nikkei (17,600 rally target) and Taiwan (8,000 trendline and sliding) with a smaller bet in Thailand (1,300+ to exit…

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Technically, the index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,376/1,370 points and the resistance at 1,387 points (25-day EMA)/1,380 points, based on yesterday's technical sell signal that occurred after it created a lower low point and fell below the major support, which increases the likelihood of a further decline.</li><li>Keep a close watch for hints about the possible trajectory of the fed funds rate from the speech by the Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic (voter), who is expected to reiterate his view calling for no more than three rate cuts this year and patience regarding a dovish shift in the Fed's monetary policy.</li><li>The minutes may continue to indicate that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates.</li></ul>

Technically, the index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,376/1,370 points and the resistance at 1,387 points (25-day EMA)/1,380 points, based on yesterday's technical sell signal that occurred after it created a lower low point and fell below the major support, which increases the likelihood of a further decline.Keep a close watch for hints about the possible trajectory of the fed funds rate from the speech by the Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic (voter), who is expected to reiterate his view calling for no more than three rate cuts this year and patience regarding a dovish shift in the Fed's monetary policy.The minutes may continue to indicate that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates.

Keep a Close Watch on US FOMC Minutes and Earnings of NVIDIA and HSBC

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, under the influence of the downtrend pattern (inverted U-shaped pattern), with the support at 1,391/1,380 points and the resistance at 1,407/1,413 points (50-day EMA).</li><li>If approved, we anticipate a positive impact in the short term on ITD's share price and on financial institutions holding the debt.</li><li>The Bloomberg consensus estimates the 2023E net profit at Bt74.78mn (+207.27% YoY), and the fair value is Bt19.38.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, under the influence of the downtrend pattern (inverted U-shaped pattern), with the support at 1,391/1,380 points and the resistance at 1,407/1,413 points (50-day EMA).If approved, we anticipate a positive impact in the short term on ITD's share price and on financial institutions holding the debt.The Bloomberg consensus estimates the 2023E net profit at Bt74.78mn (+207.27% YoY), and the fair value is Bt19.38.

Thailand

Susco Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based energy company engaged in the wholesale and retail of fuel products, including benzene, diesel oil, gasohol, natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and lubricants. The company operates fuel service stations under the SUSCO brand and is expanding into the electric vehicle segment. Susco was founded on September 21, 1977, and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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Susco (SUSCO TB)

Turnarounds: Finding A Phoenix In the Land of the Dead

In this review, we highlight the importance for investors to: 1) not 'jump the gun' and sell on companies that are in decline; and 2) think...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Geo Energy Resources Led Upstream Coal Plays in 2016 YTD

SGX lists four Upstream Coal Plays: Geo Energy Resources, Resources Prima Group, BlackGold Natural Resources and Golden Energy & Resources.Geo...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Asia into Next Week

Our view for a zig zag uptick sequence has not changed and counting on a secondary low in the S&P and oil to provide support for a final uptick...

Thomas Schroeder

Keep a Close Watch on US FOMC Minutes and Earnings of NVIDIA and HSBC

Technically, the index is expected to weaken, with the support at 1,376/1,370 points and the resistance at 1,387 points (25-day EMA)/1,380 points,...

Krungthai XSpring

Today's Dominant Ideas

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move sideways down, under the influence of the downtrend pattern (inverted U-shaped pattern), with the...

Krungthai XSpring

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