Managing Director, Leaf & Ledger Limited

Evan Campbell, CFA

Managing Director

Leaf & Ledger Limited

Formed in 2024, Leaf & Ledger is a European advisory and research firm serving institutional investors and managers. We focus on real assets and private markets, with public-market read-throughs where material. Our work emphasises valuation signals, market structure, and execution topics that translate technical assessment into underwriting and strategy.

Insight That Moves Capital

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>
 High miss probability: Suzano has $2.75B SLBs. The 2031 SPT needs 2025 intensity to fall 14% YoY, while the largest one-year reduction since 2019 is ≈2.9%. A miss is likely.</li>
<li>
 Catalyst within months: Observation windows end YE 2025 and 2026. Coupons reset from July and September 2026. Vendor updates often lag disclosure, creating a tradable timing gap.</li>
<li>
 How to position: Accumulate select SLBs into verification for carry when SPTs miss. Trade equity around KPI disclosures as a read on efficiency and capex cadence.</li>
</ul>



 High miss probability: Suzano has $2.75B SLBs. The 2031 SPT needs 2025 intensity to fall 14% YoY, while the largest one-year reduction since 2019 is ≈2.9%. A miss is likely.

 Catalyst within months: Observation windows end YE 2025 and 2026. Coupons reset from July and September 2026. Vendor updates often lag disclosure, creating a tradable timing gap.

 How to position: Accumulate select SLBs into verification for carry when SPTs miss. Trade equity around KPI disclosures as a read on efficiency and capex cadence.


Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.</li>
<li>MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View</li>
<li>Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View</li>
</ul>


The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.
MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View
Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View


<ul>
<li>We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.</li>
<li>Suzano posted strong 4Q24 results. Supported by the Pulp segment outperforming despite pricing headwinds. EBITDA reached R$6.5 billion, down a modest 0.6% QoQ but 5.3% above expectations</li>
<li>From a credit perspective. Suzano's results showed improved LTM EBITDA and positive net free cash flow, but net leverage rose slightly to 3.3x due to FX-driven debt increases.</li>
</ul>


We upgraded Suzano’s 2031s and 2032s to Outperform, while maintaining the rest of the curve at Market Perform.
Suzano posted strong 4Q24 results. Supported by the Pulp segment outperforming despite pricing headwinds. EBITDA reached R$6.5 billion, down a modest 0.6% QoQ but 5.3% above expectations
From a credit perspective. Suzano's results showed improved LTM EBITDA and positive net free cash flow, but net leverage rose slightly to 3.3x due to FX-driven debt increases.


Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>During 1Q2024, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +8.7%y/y, down slightly from the +10.1% reported during 4Q2023.</li>
<li>Only 47% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 44% delivered positive Sales surprises, a sharp correction from the positive trend witnessed during 2023.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


During 1Q2024, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +8.7%y/y, down slightly from the +10.1% reported during 4Q2023.
Only 47% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 44% delivered positive Sales surprises, a sharp correction from the positive trend witnessed during 2023.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2024

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.</li>
<li>Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.
Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

Brazil

Suzano S.A. develops sustainable and innovative solutions from renewable sources. The Company offers cellulose, hygiene, lignin, eucalyptus, and paper products. Suzano serves clients worldwide.

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Suzano (SUZB3 BS)

Suzano SLBs, High Miss Risk Into 2026

Suzano's $2.75B SLBs face high miss risk as 2031 SPT needs intensity to drop 14% YoY. Watch for catalysts by YE 2025, and position accordingly for...

Evan Campbell, CFA

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen

Suzano's strong 4Q24 results lead to upgraded bond ratings, with EBITDA surpassing expectations despite pricing challenges and slight increase in...

Leandro Gubler

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2024

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends by looking at Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive surprises,...

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Suzano SLBs, High Miss Risk Into 2026

​Suzano's $2.75B SLBs face high miss risk as 2031 SPT needs intensity to drop 14% YoY. Watch for catalysts by YE 2025, and position accordingly for...

Evan Campbell, CFA

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Leandro Gubler

Suzano 4Q24: 2031s & 2032s Offer Value as Fundamentals Strengthen

​Suzano's strong 4Q24 results lead to upgraded bond ratings, with EBITDA surpassing expectations despite pricing challenges and slight increase in...

Leandro Gubler

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2024

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends by looking at Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive surprises,...

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Suzano's $2.75B SLBs face high miss risk as 2031 SPT needs intensity to drop 14% YoY. Watch for catalysts by YE 2025, and position accordingly for...

LatAm Aggregate Index down to 315 bps, trading below 3-month average. MELI and YPF show growth, Suzano and Minerva credit metrics improve.

Suzano's strong 4Q24 results lead to upgraded bond ratings, with EBITDA surpassing expectations despite pricing challenges and slight increase in...