Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they <em>are</em> in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.</li>
<li>The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.</li>
<li>We see 8 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event in June 2026.</li>
</ul>


The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
We see 8 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event in June 2026.


Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun26: Expected ADDs/DELs Can Change; US$1bn+ One-Way

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group / Technical Analysis

OmniVision Integrated Circuits Group (603501 CH)

<p>New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.</p>

New developments suggest caution is warranted, and leads us to believe the mixed market environment is poised to continue. The new and concerning developments include widening high yield spreads in the U.S. and Europe and improving relative strength for defensive Sectors -- both are clear signs of risk aversion. At the same time, global indexes remain above critical support levels; until this changes our neutral outlook remains appropriate.

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Capital Markets

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen / Equity Capital Markets

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipmen (300450 CH)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-lead-intelligent-equipmen" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27971:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (470 HK)</a> has a lukewarm H-share IPO response, but is still priced at the maximum of HK$45.80. This places it on 29.2x PER for FY26F.</li>
<li>We consider an appropriate HA discount to be roughly 25-30%, implying a fair value of HK$45.6-48.8, or 6.6% downside/upside, and it is almost fairly-valued. </li>
<li>At the top-end of our estimated fair value, its multiples do not appear attractive against the A-share and other global peers, so HK$48.8 is the ceiling. </li>
</ul>



Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment (470 HK) has a lukewarm H-share IPO response, but is still priced at the maximum of HK$45.80. This places it on 29.2x PER for FY26F.
We consider an appropriate HA discount to be roughly 25-30%, implying a fair value of HK$45.6-48.8, or 6.6% downside/upside, and it is almost fairly-valued. 
At the top-end of our estimated fair value, its multiples do not appear attractive against the A-share and other global peers, so HK$48.8 is the ceiling. 


Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

China

Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.,Ltd. provides solar energy equipment. The Company offers developing, manufacturing, and marketing of energy storage and power delivery solutions. Suzhou Maxwell Technologies serves automotive, heavy transportation, renewable energy, backup power, wireless communications and industrial, and consumer electronics applications.

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52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (300751 CH)

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun26: Expected ADDs/DELs Can Change; US$1bn+ One-Way

We expect there to be US$899mn and US$216mn one-way flows for the ChiNext and ChiNext 50 in June 2026. Some names have double impacts.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

With interest rates expected to move sideways to lower, we recommend a mix of growth and defensive Sectors. Today we focus on Services/Technology...

Vermilion Research

Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun26: Expected ADDs/DELs Can Change; US$1bn+ One-Way

We expect there to be US$899mn and US$216mn one-way flows for the ChiNext and ChiNext 50 in June 2026. Some names have double impacts.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Global Equity Strategy: Reason For Caution; Actionable Themes: Services/Technology & Staples

With interest rates expected to move sideways to lower, we recommend a mix of growth and defensive Sectors. Today we focus on Services/Technology...

Vermilion Research

Wuxi Lead Equipment (470 HK): Almost Fair

​Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment's lukewarm IPO response leads to a fair value estimate of HK$45.6-48.8, suggesting it is almost fairly-valued with...