Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHCOMP INDEX)

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the 2Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.</li>
<li>We estimate that the inflows in 2Q2026 were US$20,544 million and holdings were US$462 billion.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, WEICHAI POWER, SUZHOU TFC OPTICAL COMMUNICATION, Luxshare Precision, CHAOZHOU THREE-CIRCLE, WUXI APPTEC, CAMBRICON, YUANJIE SEMI, Moutai, MIDEA.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the 2Q2026 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
We estimate that the inflows in 2Q2026 were US$20,544 million and holdings were US$462 billion.
We highlight flows for CATL, WEICHAI POWER, SUZHOU TFC OPTICAL COMMUNICATION, Luxshare Precision, CHAOZHOU THREE-CIRCLE, WUXI APPTEC, CAMBRICON, YUANJIE SEMI, Moutai, MIDEA.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Index Rebalance

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences  / Index Rebalance

Post market close on 26 February, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company <a href="http://www.csindex.com.cn/en/indices/notices-and-announcements-detail/1606" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>. The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31070:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cambricon-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31068:1" rel="noopener">Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qi-an-xin-technology-group-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31069:1" rel="noopener">Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/farasis-energy-gan-zhou-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28385:1" rel="noopener">Farasis Energy Gan Zhou Co-A (688567 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trina-solar-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30404:1" rel="noopener">Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH)</a>.The exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-tztek-technology-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28232:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujian-forecam-optics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30306:1" rel="noopener">Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longyan-zhuoyue-new-energy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30364:1" rel="noopener">Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianjin-jiuri-new-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30366:1" rel="noopener">Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-seeyon-internet-so-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30393:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH)</a>.The launch of new ETFs on the index has kept the assets tracking the index steady even with the market dropping.All inclusions have at least 1 day of ADV to buy and the deletions have at least 2.4 days of ADV to sell. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.93% and there is quite a large impact as part of the funding trade.There is no excess volume on most of the stocks and similar to the December rebalance, the inclusions could outperform the exclusions from now till implementation date.

Post market close on 26 February, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company announced the changes to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX). The changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.The inclusions are Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH), Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH), Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH), Farasis Energy Gan Zhou Co-A (688567 CH) and Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH).The exclusions are Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH), Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH), Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH), Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH) and Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH).The launch of new ETFs on the index has kept the assets tracking the index steady even with the market dropping.All inclusions have at least 1 day of ADV to buy and the deletions have at least 2.4 days of ADV to sell. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.93% and there is quite a large impact as part of the funding trade.There is no excess volume on most of the stocks and similar to the December rebalance, the inclusions could outperform the exclusions from now till implementation date.

STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance: Another BIG One

Cambricon Technologies  Lt / Index Rebalance

The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> is made up of 50 stocks with the largest full market cap and good liquidity listed on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board (the STAR Market). The index is free float market cap weighted and the weight of each stock is capped at 10%. In addition, the total weight of the top 5 constituents should not exceed 40%.The data cut-off for the March review ends on 31 January. The results of the review will be announced towards the end of February and the review will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.Having gone through over 97% of the review period, we see 13 stocks eligible for index inclusion and 16 stocks in the deletion zone. With only 5 changes permitted in a single review, that is what we will have to settle for. What that also means is that there will be more changes at the June review.For the March review, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cambricon-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31068:1" rel="noopener">Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qi-an-xin-technology-group-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31069:1" rel="noopener">Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31070:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trina-solar-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30404:1" rel="noopener">Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/farasis-energy-gan-zhou-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28385:1" rel="noopener">Farasis Energy Gan Zhou (688567 CH)</a> being included in the index.<div>
We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longyan-zhuoyue-new-energy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30364:1" rel="noopener">Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-tztek-technology-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28232:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-seeyon-internet-so-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30393:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianjin-jiuri-new-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30366:1" rel="noopener">Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujian-forecam-optics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30306:1" rel="noopener">Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH)</a> to be deleted from the index to make way for the inclusions. One-way turnover is around 10%.
There has been a small outflow from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> ETFs since our last Insight, but that will have minimal impact on the rebalance.
The expected adds and deletes are the same from our earlier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/star50-index-rebalance-preview-march21-rising-aum-and-a-new-index-make-an-exciting-combination" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Insight</a>. Since then, a trade of buying the expected adds and selling the expected deletes has returned 24%. There could be further moves as we near the near the end of the review period, and then once the announcement is made.
</div>

The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) is made up of 50 stocks with the largest full market cap and good liquidity listed on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board (the STAR Market). The index is free float market cap weighted and the weight of each stock is capped at 10%. In addition, the total weight of the top 5 constituents should not exceed 40%.The data cut-off for the March review ends on 31 January. The results of the review will be announced towards the end of February and the review will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.Having gone through over 97% of the review period, we see 13 stocks eligible for index inclusion and 16 stocks in the deletion zone. With only 5 changes permitted in a single review, that is what we will have to settle for. What that also means is that there will be more changes at the June review.For the March review, we see Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH), Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH), Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH), Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH) and Farasis Energy Gan Zhou (688567 CH) being included in the index.
We expect Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH), Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH), Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH), Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH) and Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH) to be deleted from the index to make way for the inclusions. One-way turnover is around 10%.
There has been a small outflow from the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) ETFs since our last Insight, but that will have minimal impact on the rebalance.
The expected adds and deletes are the same from our earlier Insight. Since then, a trade of buying the expected adds and selling the expected deletes has returned 24%. There could be further moves as we near the near the end of the review period, and then once the announcement is made.


STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: +Adds/-Deletes = +24%

Qi An Xin Technology Group  / Index Rebalance

The SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index, also know as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a>, is made up of 50 stocks with the largest full market cap and good liquidity listed on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board (the STAR Market). The index is free float market cap weighted and the weight of each stock is capped at 10%. In addition, the total weight of the top 5 constituents should not exceed 40%.
ETFs benchmarked to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> raised just over CNY 21bn at launch and assets have since swelled to CNY 28.2bn due to inflows. The large amount of assets benchmarked to stocks with low free float and trading volumes creates an ideal environment for index rebalance trades to work, as we have seen in the upcoming review which will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 December.
With a maximum of 5 changes permitted in a single review, that is what we will get in March. Potential inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cambricon-technologies-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31068:1" rel="noopener">Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qi-an-xin-technology-group-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31069:1" rel="noopener">Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-junshi-bioscience-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31070:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trina-solar-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30404:1" rel="noopener">Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/farasis-energy-gan-zhou-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28385:1" rel="noopener">Farasis Energy Gan Zhou (688567 CH)</a>.
The potential deletions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/longyan-zhuoyue-new-energy-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30364:1" rel="noopener">Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzhou-tztek-technology-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28232:1" rel="noopener">Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-seeyon-internet-so-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30393:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tianjin-jiuri-new-material-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30366:1" rel="noopener">Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujian-forecam-optics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30306:1" rel="noopener">Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH)</a>.
One-way turnover is around 13% and there is big impact expected on the stocks, especially on the deletes, and a trade of buying the expected inclusions and selling the expected exclusions could perform well.

The SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 Index, also know as the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX), is made up of 50 stocks with the largest full market cap and good liquidity listed on the SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board (the STAR Market). The index is free float market cap weighted and the weight of each stock is capped at 10%. In addition, the total weight of the top 5 constituents should not exceed 40%.
ETFs benchmarked to the SSE STAR 50 (STAR50 INDEX) raised just over CNY 21bn at launch and assets have since swelled to CNY 28.2bn due to inflows. The large amount of assets benchmarked to stocks with low free float and trading volumes creates an ideal environment for index rebalance trades to work, as we have seen in the upcoming review which will be implemented at the close of trading on 11 December.
With a maximum of 5 changes permitted in a single review, that is what we will get in March. Potential inclusions are Cambricon Technologies Corp (688256 CH), Qi An Xin Technology Group (688561 CH), Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (688180 CH), Trina Solar Co Ltd (688599 CH) and Farasis Energy Gan Zhou (688567 CH).
The potential deletions are Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co (688196 CH), Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH), Beijing Seeyon Internet So-A (688369 CH), Tianjin Jiuri New Material-A (688199 CH) and Fujian Forecam Optics Co Ltd (688010 CH).
One-way turnover is around 13% and there is big impact expected on the stocks, especially on the deletes, and a trade of buying the expected inclusions and selling the expected exclusions could perform well.

STAR Board: STAR50 Index Rebalance March21: Rising AUM and a New Index Make an Exciting Combination

China

Suzhou TZTEK Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures measurement equipment. The Company produces intelligent detection equipment, precision measuring instrument, intelligent testing equipment, and other products. Suzhou TZTEK Technology supplies its products in measurement, automatic production, logistics, and other fields.

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Suzhou Tztek Technology Co-A (688003 CH)

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs...

Vermilion Research

Northbound Flows (2Q2026): $20bn Inflows

We analyzed Northbound connect data for 2Q2026 and highlight flows for CATL, WEICHAI POWER, SUZHOU TFC OPTICAL COMMUNICATION, Luxshare Precision,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance: Another BIG One

There are 5 changes to the STAR50 index as a part of the March review. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.93% and we expect the inclusions to...

Brian Freitas

STAR Board - STAR50 Index Rebalance Preview: +Adds/-Deletes = +24%

There will be 5 changes for the STAR50 index in the March review. The lack of pre-positioning and large AUM tracking the index (plus active traders...

Brian Freitas

STAR Board: STAR50 Index Rebalance March21: Rising AUM and a New Index Make an Exciting Combination

Increasing assets benchmarked to the STAR50 index and comparatively low trading volumes on the expected inclusions and exclusions provide an ideal...

Brian Freitas

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