Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China housing market may be confusing when you watch it from further afield: how do you square house price bubble trouble (not only in Tier-1 cities) headlined now across the media with the dire state of ghost cities and oversupply portrayed at the same time, with supply-side reforms on top of the agenda? Yes, the market has become more divergent and policy more differentiating between cities, but we still have the overall cycle at play. In this note, we look at the latest indicators for where we really might be in that cycle.

China housing market may be confusing when you watch it from further afield: how do you square house price bubble trouble (not only in Tier-1 cities) headlined now across the media with the dire state of ghost cities and oversupply portrayed at the same time, with supply-side reforms on top of the agenda? Yes, the market has become more divergent and policy more differentiating between cities, but we still have the overall cycle at play. In this note, we look at the latest indicators for where we really might be in that cycle. 

Latest Signals For China Housing Market Cycle - Peak Or Not?

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

<ul><li>In this post, Evidente draws on recent analysis undertaken by the RBA of developments in China's residential property markets.  Thanks to a number of government policies implemented since 2014, there has been a substantial pick-up in conditions since the start of the year, particularly an acceleration in residential sales, as measured by floor space sold.</li><li>The strong pick-up has supported the renewed strength in global commodity prices, but has probably contributed to key growing vulnerabilities and risks, around leverage of property developers, the still large stock of unsold housing inventory and annual growth in house prices that appears close to a peak if history is any guide. </li><li>Against this backdrop, Evidente's model portfolio retains a substantial underweight in the Materials sector, with overweights in RIO, BSL and MND representing the key exposures.  </li></ul>

In this post, Evidente draws on recent analysis undertaken by the RBA of developments in China's residential property markets.  Thanks to a number of government policies implemented since 2014, there has been a substantial pick-up in conditions since the start of the year, particularly an acceleration in residential sales, as measured by floor space sold.The strong pick-up has supported the renewed strength in global commodity prices, but has probably contributed to key growing vulnerabilities and risks, around leverage of property developers, the still large stock of unsold housing inventory and annual growth in house prices that appears close to a peak if history is any guide. Against this backdrop, Evidente's model portfolio retains a substantial underweight in the Materials sector, with overweights in RIO, BSL and MND representing the key exposures.  

China Housing: Strong Recovery but Debt and Vulnerabilities Rise

China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer good investment options.  Furthermore, given the spillovers into global markets, bubbles in China can create rapid price increases elsewhere.This leads to two specific conclusions when looking for trading opportunities.  First, look for short opportunities in Chinese assets that have seen large rapid price increases.  This has happened repeatedly to…

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

<ul><li class="p1">The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.</li><li class="p1">Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.</li><li class="p1">We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.</li><li class="p1">Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.</li><li class="p1">Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).</li></ul>Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears.Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged mining stocks more than doubling from recent lows.We expect falling Chinese steel demand and rising Chinese steel scrap availability to cut iron ore prices by half.Shares of several heavily indebted producers are likely to fall by more than 50%.Our long-run forecasts are $30 per tonne for iron ore (versus consensus $55) and $75 per tonne for metallurgical coal (versus consensus $110).Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr, Mathew Hodge &amp; Andrew Lane

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
​
More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

<div class="content-highlight"><ul>
<li>Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.</li>
<li>The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.</li>
<li>Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.</li>
<li>Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…</li>
</ul></div>


Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle.  2015 is no exception.
The latest data releases support the view of a stimulus led recovery in China.  Kicking the 'reform' can down the road for a little while.
Unfortunately the impulse value of each stimulus is diminishing.
Due to the precipitous declines in commodities markets prior to this round of stimulus the commodities markets will behave differently from…


China

Suzhou Victory Precision Manufacture Co.,Ltd. manufacture structure modules. The company's products are precision metal structural components, precision plastic structural components and other spare parts.

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Suzhou Victory Precision A (002426 CH)

Latest Signals For China Housing Market Cycle - Peak Or Not?

China housing market may be confusing when you watch it from further afield: how do you square house price bubble trouble (not only in Tier-1...

Robert Ciemniak

China Housing: Strong Recovery but Debt and Vulnerabilities Rise

In this post, Evidente draws on recent analysis undertaken by the RBA of developments in China's residential property markets. Thanks to a number...

Sam Ferraro

Silver Is the Latest Chinese Little Short

As we have noted numerous time before, the result of so much money and credit creation is that there is a lot more capital chasing fewer and fewer...

Christopher Balding

Dawn of the Scrap Age: Iron Ore and Met Coal Will Suffer as China's Scrap Supply Rises.

The recent rally in bulk commodity miners will end in tears. Iron ore has risen to $60 per tonne from a bottom of $37 in December, with leveraged...

Morningstar, Inc.

China - Late 2012-Early 2013 Repeat

Every time the Chinese authorities try to wean the economy off monetary stimulus they are forced back into an ever diminishing cycle. 2015 is no...

Mark Artherton

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