Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Well-known largecap Japanese Security Services firm <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/secom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11405:1" rel="noopener">Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP)</a> on Friday announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities of its subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/secom-joshinetsu-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2081:1" rel="noopener">Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP)</a>. This is a slightly unusual two-step transaction. To start with, while SECOM itself only owns 54%, the combination of SECOM, its Singaporean sub, two connected individuals and two partner companies gets Related Parties to 73.6%. SECOM will conduct a Tender Offer for the shares of Secom Joshinetsu at ¥6350/share, which is a 66.2% premium to Friday's close, then will merge SECOM Joshinetsu into SECOM at a scrip exchange ratio to be determined later. That looks like a good premium.Is it good enough? It doesn't really matter.

Well-known largecap Japanese Security Services firm Secom Co Ltd (9735 JP) on Friday announced a Tender Offer to take out minorities of its subsidiary Secom Joshinetsu (4342 JP). This is a slightly unusual two-step transaction. To start with, while SECOM itself only owns 54%, the combination of SECOM, its Singaporean sub, two connected individuals and two partner companies gets Related Parties to 73.6%. SECOM will conduct a Tender Offer for the shares of Secom Joshinetsu at ¥6350/share, which is a 66.2% premium to Friday's close, then will merge SECOM Joshinetsu into SECOM at a scrip exchange ratio to be determined later. That looks like a good premium.Is it good enough? It doesn't really matter. 

Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eps-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13246:1" rel="noopener">Eps Holdings (4282 JP)</a> was founded in 1991 by Hao Yan with 100,000 yen when he was 28 years old. It was a company which was built around software to manage clinical trials. Basically, the entire company was built off that idea of providing an infrastructure to allow a small company to act like a big one, or to allow a big one to interface with 5,000 smaller ones. A couple of years later the company became a CRO (Contract Research Organization) by amalgamating case registration and drug allocation services for those same clinical trials. Less than a decade later and they were managing the interfaces with clinical trial sites (i.e. they were a Site Management Organization (SMO)) for pharmaceutical companies, then they tacked on a CSO (Contract Sales Organization) status so they could take existing product from that same group of pharmaceutical companies for whom they were managing drug trials and could sell those drugs to the same doctors who were in situ at the thousands of sites across Japan conducting trials. Later, the company launched some of those same services in China and in SE Asia. It's a good business. About 15yrs ago the company listed on the TSE1. About five years ago they formed a tie-up with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/suzuken-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14996:1" rel="noopener">Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)</a>. Now they are participating in the joint development of a DNA vaccine for covid-19. <h2>The NEW News</h2>Earlier this week, EPS launched a Takeunder of a Hong Kong company called Speed Apparel Holdings (3860 HK - held as to 75% by a single holder). It's not clear why they are doing this takeunder but it has been arranged as of earlier this spring.And on Thursday 27 May, the company announced that Mr. Hao Yan's company and an executive team of EPS would launch a Management Buyout (MBO) of EPS Holdings with contributions from partner Suzuken and MBK Partners as sponsor.It's a decent deal at a decent premium so... we dig in.

Eps Holdings (4282 JP) was founded in 1991 by Hao Yan with 100,000 yen when he was 28 years old. It was a company which was built around software to manage clinical trials. Basically, the entire company was built off that idea of providing an infrastructure to allow a small company to act like a big one, or to allow a big one to interface with 5,000 smaller ones. A couple of years later the company became a CRO (Contract Research Organization) by amalgamating case registration and drug allocation services for those same clinical trials. Less than a decade later and they were managing the interfaces with clinical trial sites (i.e. they were a Site Management Organization (SMO)) for pharmaceutical companies, then they tacked on a CSO (Contract Sales Organization) status so they could take existing product from that same group of pharmaceutical companies for whom they were managing drug trials and could sell those drugs to the same doctors who were in situ at the thousands of sites across Japan conducting trials. Later, the company launched some of those same services in China and in SE Asia. It's a good business. About 15yrs ago the company listed on the TSE1. About five years ago they formed a tie-up with Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP). Now they are participating in the joint development of a DNA vaccine for covid-19. The NEW NewsEarlier this week, EPS launched a Takeunder of a Hong Kong company called Speed Apparel Holdings (3860 HK - held as to 75% by a single holder). It's not clear why they are doing this takeunder but it has been arranged as of earlier this spring.And on Thursday 27 May, the company announced that Mr. Hao Yan's company and an executive team of EPS would launch a Management Buyout (MBO) of EPS Holdings with contributions from partner Suzuken and MBK Partners as sponsor.It's a decent deal at a decent premium so... we dig in.

Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-highlight">"Beware of geeks bearing formulas." - Warren Buffett </div>Enterprise Value multiples have become common parlance in the investment world, both Enterprise Value/Operating Profit (EV/OP or EV/EBIT) and it's flawed 'bastard' cousin EV/EBITDA which we will leave well alone for this Insight. With markets supported on a cloud of central bank's liquidity and corporate trailing earnings distorted by COVID-19, many valuation ratios appear meaningless. To inject a dose of reality into the analysis of Japanese corporate valuations, we have created a new metric - Enterprise Value/Peak Operating Profit (EV/POP).<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/071/original/2020-08-26_10-36-07.png?1598405812" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155071"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics (applies to all charts below)</div>EV &amp; OP TIMELINE - Using currently-listed non-financial companies (with the four exceptions noted in the legend above), the correlation between Enterprise Value (here divided by 10) and Operating Income has increased since 2013. However, the current positive EV&lt;&gt;OP 'spread' is now larger than at any time since 2002. While non-financial Operating Profits have declined by 22% since peaking in the first quarter of FY2019, Enterprise Value is just ¥2.9 trillion, or 5% below its <a href="mailto:FY18-@Q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FY18-</a>2Q peak level. Where the lines converge, the EV/OP multiple is 10 times, which is close to the sixteen-year average and the arbitrary line we shall use to distinguish the overvalued from the undervalued. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/075/original/2020-08-26_10-56-07.png?1598406979" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155075"></figure>EV/OP &amp; EV/POP - Aggregate EV/OP is now 11.6 times, breaking out of a narrow range to reach a  new a ten-year high. EV/POP reached a five-year low in March of 7.9 times but is now 20 basis points above the seven-year average of 8.8 times. By neither measure could the market be considered cheap; however, in EV/POP terms, aggregate valuations are only just above average.  For several favoured companies for which the market is prepared to pay any price for their perceived quality EV/POP multiple are far from average as in the examples below. At the other end of the valuation spectrum, EV/POP reveals some clear bargain-hunting opportunities.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/100/original/2020-08-26_13-12-11.png?1598415140" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155100"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/102/original/2020-08-26_13-12-39.png?1598415169" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155102"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/155/104/original/2020-08-26_13-15-58.png?1598415375" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="155104"></figure>In the DETAIL section, we look at the non-financial companies at more examples from both extremes of this metric, in an attempt to pick potential winners and losers as the world slowly normalises and liquidity begins to ebb.  We have purposely excluded companies with negative Enterprise Values, which we shall cover in a upcoming Insight. We have also excluded companies that have listed only in the last four years.

"Beware of geeks bearing formulas." - Warren Buffett Enterprise Value multiples have become common parlance in the investment world, both Enterprise Value/Operating Profit (EV/OP or EV/EBIT) and it's flawed 'bastard' cousin EV/EBITDA which we will leave well alone for this Insight. With markets supported on a cloud of central bank's liquidity and corporate trailing earnings distorted by COVID-19, many valuation ratios appear meaningless. To inject a dose of reality into the analysis of Japanese corporate valuations, we have created a new metric - Enterprise Value/Peak Operating Profit (EV/POP).Source: Japan Analytics (applies to all charts below)EV &amp; OP TIMELINE - Using currently-listed non-financial companies (with the four exceptions noted in the legend above), the correlation between Enterprise Value (here divided by 10) and Operating Income has increased since 2013. However, the current positive EV&lt;&gt;OP 'spread' is now larger than at any time since 2002. While non-financial Operating Profits have declined by 22% since peaking in the first quarter of FY2019, Enterprise Value is just ¥2.9 trillion, or 5% below its FY18-2Q peak level. Where the lines converge, the EV/OP multiple is 10 times, which is close to the sixteen-year average and the arbitrary line we shall use to distinguish the overvalued from the undervalued. EV/OP &amp; EV/POP - Aggregate EV/OP is now 11.6 times, breaking out of a narrow range to reach a  new a ten-year high. EV/POP reached a five-year low in March of 7.9 times but is now 20 basis points above the seven-year average of 8.8 times. By neither measure could the market be considered cheap; however, in EV/POP terms, aggregate valuations are only just above average.  For several favoured companies for which the market is prepared to pay any price for their perceived quality EV/POP multiple are far from average as in the examples below. At the other end of the valuation spectrum, EV/POP reveals some clear bargain-hunting opportunities.In the DETAIL section, we look at the non-financial companies at more examples from both extremes of this metric, in an attempt to pick potential winners and losers as the world slowly normalises and liquidity begins to ebb.  We have purposely excluded companies with negative Enterprise Values, which we shall cover in a upcoming Insight. We have also excluded companies that have listed only in the last four years.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stock Picking with 'Peak' EV/OP Multiples - Introducing EV/POP

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/035/original/2020-03-15_07-07-04.png?1584223644" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123035"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>RELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of decline over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-opportunity-knocks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37049" rel="noopener">Opportunity Knocks?</a> Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/034/original/2020-03-15_06-53-01.png?1584222882" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123034"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/036/original/2020-03-15_07-18-49.png?1584224347" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123036"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/037/original/2020-03-15_07-23-55.png?1584224666" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123037"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>IT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been four days in the last twenty-eight years with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains. Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the Covid-19 recession on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Who’s Swimming Naked?</a> cover those companies to which this does not apply. Overall, for Japan at least, it is different this time.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/039/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2024%2020.jpeg?1584225464" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123039"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/040/original/File%202020-03-15%203%2026%2031.jpeg?1584225508" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123040"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/041/original/File%202020-03-15%207%2044%2021.jpeg?1584225894" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123041"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]</div>CONTAINING COVID - According to <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus" target="_blank" rel="noopener">data</a> from the peerless Global Change Data Lab at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/123/038/original/2020-03-15_07-34-05.png?1584225268" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="123038"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • oann.com</div>KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON - Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them sine populo. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. A COVID-19 WORLD - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      <div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.</div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsRELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of decline over the last three months has only been exceeded on 32 of the 10,142 days since March 1979, eight of which occurred in 1990, with the balance in 2008. From the January 23rd 2018 peak of 1,911, the index has fallen by 34% and is within 3% of our target (expressed in terms of Total Market Value ex REITs) outlined in our Opportunity Knocks? Insight published on 1st March. The market is also within 5% of the TOPIX low of 1,196 of 12th February 2016, which we expect will provide some short-term support. Although Japan and many other developed world economies are now in recession, markets do not fall in a straight line forever. Japanese equities now offer attractive relative value and should outperform over the coming months.Source • Japan AnalyticsIT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME - Most bear markets in Japan have coincided with periods of Yen strength, including the 29% 2015/16 decline when the currency strengthened by 19%. Repeating the rate of decline analysis above, in US dollar terms there have only been four days in the last twenty-eight years with worse 56-day rates of decline - all in October 2008. All four days provided fearless investors with excellent medium-term gains. Although this increase in market volatility may be less welcome for international investors in Japanese equities, the impact of the Covid-19 recession on the Japanese economy will be more muted. Also, the 48% collapse in the oil price year-to-date will help offset the negative impact of the October 2019 increase in the consumption tax and the decline in export sales in Europe. Lastly, we would suggest that the much-derided net cash that Japanese corporates 'hoard' for rainy days such as these, should delay the need for increases in credit lines. Our recent series of Insights on Who’s Swimming Naked? cover those companies to which this does not apply. Overall, for Japan at least, it is different this time.Source • Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina (2020) - "Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Research and Statistics". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus' [Online Resource]CONTAINING COVID - According to data from the peerless Global Change Data Lab at Oxford University, Japan has, (except for the unfortunate passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cruise ship), managed to contain Covid-19 better than any other large nation. While, there is some scepticism that this outcome could be a result of under-testing to avoid cancellation of the Olympic Games; nevertheless, the recorded cases fatality rate in a country with an above-average age profile is surprisingly low.  Currently, the daily increase in active Covid-19 cases in Japan is less than one hundred and was only seventeen on March 15th. The cumulative number of confirmed Covid-19 fatalities is 24, of which two occurred yesterday. The confirmed number of cases per 100,000 population is 0.65, which compares with 19.5 in South Korea, 16.5 in Italy and 12 in Iran. Source • oann.comKEEP CALM AND CARRY ON - Last night's press conference by Prime Minister Abe was in stark contrast to the sombre tone to those of Prime Minister Johnson of the United Kingdom and the tragicomic ramblings of the US President. Having received the legislative powers to declare a state of emergency, Abe declined at this stage to invoke any social restrictions beyond the already-announced school closures. As in the UK, sporting authorities are cancelling events or holding them sine populo. Japan's long obsession with cleanliness, the culture of bowing as a greeting and readiness to conform have served to 'flatten the curve'. The increased focus on such practices has also resulted in a very low incidence of seasonal influenza this year. Japan also has significantly lower levels of air pollution compared to China, Iran and northern Italy, a  factor that has become a factor in fatality rates, especially amongst the elderly. Although internal travel and restaurant patronage have sharply declined in Japan, shops are open and are well-stocked (except for now-rationed paper products) and 'free movement' with slightly-greater-than-normal social distancing is the norm. Whatever the motivations may be regarding the Olympics and Abe's legacy, Japan is unwilling to force the economy into the economic depression that would be the result of prolonged lockdown. A COVID-19 WORLD - This 'keep-calm-carry-on' model of a Covid-19-prevalent world (as is also seen in Singapore and Taiwan) will eventually have to be applied globally. These countries rapid transition to the new 'Covid-19 world' should result in better short-term outcomes for these economies.  The UK is currently being criticised for attempting to follow a version of this model, and may eventually have to go against the advice of its epidemiologists. Fortunately, for now, the general public are giving the UK government the benefit of the doubt. There will be a sharp divergence in the medium-term economic outlooks for countries taking these two 'paths' with those that are over-reacting paying a heavy price. While this does not bode well for the Eurozone, East Asia, including Japan, should emerge in better shape in this new 'viral' world.      In the DETAIL section below, we shall review a number of our favourite market indicators, recent sector performance and make some recommendations as to how to harness this once-in-a-decade opportunity to buy high-quality Japanese companies at attractive prices.

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

Japan

SUZUKEN CO., LTD., a subsidiary of Medca Japan, wholesales and manufactures pharmaceutical products mainly to hospitals and practitioners.  The Company also provides medical equipment such as electro-cardiogram and blood pressure measurement.  Suzuken provides construction and repair works to hospitals and maintains patients' clinical records through information systems services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Suzuken Co Ltd (9987 JP)

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

Secom To Finally Buy Out Affiliate Secom Joshinetsu (4342)

Secom is finally taking out Secom Joshinetsu minorities. Because affiliates own more than 13%, this deal is done before it starts. You get cash, or...

Travis Lundy

Another Too-Cheap MBO as Founder Takes Out EPS

EPS Holdings is being taken private by its founder in an MBO with help from existing directors and insiders, Suzuken, and MBK. Not unusually, it is...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stock Picking with 'Peak' EV/OP Multiples - Introducing EV/POP

"Beware of geeks bearing formulas." - Warren Buffett Enterprise Value multiples have become common parlance in the investment world, both...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN MARKET UPDATE • Relative Value: Short-Term Buy On Japanese Equities

RELATIVE VALUE - Since the recent peak of December 17th, the TOPIX Index has fallen by 28% in 56 trading days. The -0.57% daily average rate of...

Campbell Gunn

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)