European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Industrivärden offers cost-efficient, long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips, with a high-quality balance sheet and 21% upside potential to our NAV-based target price of SEK 380.2.</li>
<li>While the portfolio remains concentrated in five core holdings, recent underperformance has opened a value gap; Volvo and Sandvik remain key drivers of upside in a cyclical rebound.</li>
<li>The current 5.5% NAV discount is below historical norms, but insider buying and improved fundamentals suggest scope for re-rating as market sentiment stabilizes around Industrivärden’s core assets.</li>
</ul>


Industrivärden offers cost-efficient, long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips, with a high-quality balance sheet and 21% upside potential to our NAV-based target price of SEK 380.2.
While the portfolio remains concentrated in five core holdings, recent underperformance has opened a value gap; Volvo and Sandvik remain key drivers of upside in a cyclical rebound.
The current 5.5% NAV discount is below historical norms, but insider buying and improved fundamentals suggest scope for re-rating as market sentiment stabilizes around Industrivärden’s core assets.


Industrivärden's Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 27 April, <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinda-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:475:1" rel="noopener">Vinda (3331 HK)</a></strong> <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2023/0427/2023042700007.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> its controlling shareholder Essity (ESSITYB SS) would commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership.<em> See <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/compose/insight/115530/Essity%20Mulls%20Holding%20In%20Vinda%20(3331%20HK).%20Read%20more:%20https:/skr.ma/nexgL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Essity Mulls Holding In Vinda (3331 HK). </a></em>
</li>
<li>That shook a variety of suitors out of the woodwork (so to speak) including (reportedly) Brazil's Suzano, the world's largest hardwood pulp producer, Bain Capital, CVC Capital, and DCP Capital.</li>
<li>The latest (alleged) interested party is the Tanoto family, currently holding a 7.03% stake, having first cleared 5% on the 26 September. </li>
</ul>


On the 27 April, Vinda (3331 HK) announced its controlling shareholder Essity (ESSITYB SS) would commence a strategic review of its 51.59% ownership. See Essity Mulls Holding In Vinda (3331 HK). 

That shook a variety of suitors out of the woodwork (so to speak) including (reportedly) Brazil's Suzano, the world's largest hardwood pulp producer, Bain Capital, CVC Capital, and DCP Capital.
The latest (alleged) interested party is the Tanoto family, currently holding a 7.03% stake, having first cleared 5% on the 26 September. 


<ul>
<li>Industrivärden’s NAV reached SEK 165.6 billion in H1 2025, up 4%, while C shares delivered a flat return and now trade at a 9.7% discount to NAV—below historical levels.</li>
<li>The portfolio is highly concentrated, with 91% of NAV in five stocks: Volvo, Sandvik, Handelsbanken, Essity, and SCA—making it easily replicable but sensitive to industrial sector cycles.</li>
<li>Management costs remain ultra-low at 0.08% of AUM, while net debt is just 2% of the portfolio. Credit quality is strong (A+/Stable), and dividends from holdings totaled SEK 9.4 billion.</li>
</ul>


Industrivärden’s NAV reached SEK 165.6 billion in H1 2025, up 4%, while C shares delivered a flat return and now trade at a 9.7% discount to NAV—below historical levels.
The portfolio is highly concentrated, with 91% of NAV in five stocks: Volvo, Sandvik, Handelsbanken, Essity, and SCA—making it easily replicable but sensitive to industrial sector cycles.
Management costs remain ultra-low at 0.08% of AUM, while net debt is just 2% of the portfolio. Credit quality is strong (A+/Stable), and dividends from holdings totaled SEK 9.4 billion.


Industrivärden's H1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

<ul>
<li>Forest spin-off could unlock €2.2bn in hidden NAV and enhance valuation transparency, but will not reduce debt as shares are distributed directly to shareholders.</li>
<li>Industrial operations are undervalued vs peers, providing cyclical recovery upside.</li>
<li>Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) path simplification addresses conglomerate discount and improves investor transparency.</li>
</ul>


Forest spin-off could unlock €2.2bn in hidden NAV and enhance valuation transparency, but will not reduce debt as shares are distributed directly to shareholders.
Industrial operations are undervalued vs peers, providing cyclical recovery upside.
Sum-Of-The-Parts (SOTP) path simplification addresses conglomerate discount and improves investor transparency.


Stora Enso: Hidden Forest Value Unlock With a Clean Break Catalyst

<ul>
<li>NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab-8f0a0f6c-a595-41f6-a032-9b4820474704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43732:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden (INDUC SS)</a> was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).</li>
</ul>


NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).


Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Sweden

Svenska Cellulosa AB (SCA)  is a global hygiene and forest company that develops and produces personal care products, tissue and forest products.  The Company sells its branded products globally.

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Svenska Cellulosa Ab Sca (SCAB SS)

Industrivärden's Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivärden offers long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips with potential for upside as market sentiment stabilizes and core assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto Sees The Wood

I would still tilt outright long in Hengan; or hedge with Vinda; although that has been a shocking trade in recent years.

David Blennerhassett

Industrivärden's H1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivärden offers low-cost, concentrated exposure to Sweden’s industrial giants. With solid returns, low debt, and a narrow NAV discount, it’s...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Stora Enso: Hidden Forest Value Unlock With a Clean Break Catalyst

Stora Enso’s forest spin-off unlocks hidden NAV and improves valuation transparency. Though not deleveraging, it sharpens the group’s profile and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Industrivärden's Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

​Industrivärden offers long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips with potential for upside as market sentiment stabilizes and core assets...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vinda (3331 HK): Tanoto Sees The Wood

I would still tilt outright long in Hengan; or hedge with Vinda; although that has been a shocking trade in recent years.

David Blennerhassett

Industrivärden's H1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivärden offers low-cost, concentrated exposure to Sweden’s industrial giants. With solid returns, low debt, and a narrow NAV discount, it’s...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Stora Enso: Hidden Forest Value Unlock With a Clean Break Catalyst

Stora Enso’s forest spin-off unlocks hidden NAV and improves valuation transparency. Though not deleveraging, it sharpens the group’s profile and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

​Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden offers long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips with potential for upside as market sentiment stabilizes and core assets...

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...