European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.</li>
<li>Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.</li>
<li>Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.</li>
</ul>


Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.
Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.
Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

<ul>
<li>Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.</li>
<li>Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.</li>
<li>BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.
Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.
BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

<ul>
<li>June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.</li>
<li>Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.</li>
</ul>


June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.
Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.
Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li><div>Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25<sup>th</sup> note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.</div></li>
<li><div><span lang="EN-US">With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.</span></div></li>
<li><div>
<span lang="EN-US">The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely correlates) heading higher – the worst looks over.
With the USD index testing the 100 level, a new consensus has rapidly formed around loose US fiscal policy coinciding with tighter monetary policy in a re-run of the 1980s-dollar bull market.

The US 10-yr yield on a currency hedged basis is attractive again to European/Japanese investors -renewed inflows should…


Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

<p>The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. </p><p>Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…</p>

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent catalysts that could give the dollar a final push through resistance and lead it to trend higher: The Italian referendum on constitutional reform on 4th December and the FOMC meeting on December 14th. Although in theory the Italian referendum actually has nothing to do with Italy's continued membership of the Eurozone and hence the EU (remember Greece was…

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

Sweden

Svenska Handelsbanken AB attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The Bank offers corporate finance, securities brokerage, commodity trading, structured products, custody services, and institutional asset management services.  Svenska Handelsbanken operates in Europe, Asia, and the United States.

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Svenska Handelsbanken AB (SHBA SS)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

August brought fresh dispersion across Europe's dual-class shares, creating new relative-value opportunities while corporate actions remain an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

-July widened dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe, yet selective convergence persisted beneath the surface. Structural anomalies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

June brought renewed divergence across European ord/pref pairs. Structural outliers widened, convergence became more selective, and implementation...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Reflation Trade Overshooting, as Eurozone Political Tail Risk Revives - 17th Nov 2016

Gold miners have crashed about a third since the August 25th note warning they were vulnerable to real yields (with which gold inversely...

Sean Maher

Money Matters: The Road to Italeave and a Dollar Break-Out?

The trade weighted dollar Index is within a whisker of breaking out of its two year long consolidation phase. There are two fairly imminent...

Stewart Paterson

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)