European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.</li>
<li>The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).
Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3 tightened, 4 at same level).</li>
<li>Telecom Italia savers sharply reduced their premium to ords to 12% (vs. 18.5%); Handelsbanken B shares trade at 39.9% premium to A shares.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3 tightened, 4 at same level).
Telecom Italia savers sharply reduced their premium to ords to 12% (vs. 18.5%); Handelsbanken B shares trade at 39.9% premium to A shares.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February'25 Report

<ul>
<li>NAV of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/industrivarden-ab-8f0a0f6c-a595-41f6-a032-9b4820474704" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43732:1" rel="noopener">Industrivarden (INDUC SS)</a> was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).</li>
<li>Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.</li>
<li>My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).</li>
</ul>


NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was c. SEK 160 bn (SEK 370/share) on December 31. NAV increased by 6% during FY 2024. 5-Y total return 78% (OMX30, 64%).
Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV (vs. 7.4% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
My target NAV is SEK 171 bn. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 376.5 (4.5% downside).


Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

<ul>
<li>Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.
Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Sweden

Svenska Handelsbanken AB attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The Bank offers corporate finance, securities brokerage, commodity trading, structured products, custody services, and institutional asset management services.  Svenska Handelsbanken operates in Europe, Asia, and the United States.

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Svenska Handelsbanken AB (SHBA SS)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Since mid-March, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February'25 Report

Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Since mid-March, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

​European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February'25 Report

Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Industrivärden's FY 2024: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

​Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January'25 Report

Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Industrivarden's NAV increased by 6% in FY 2024, with a target NAV of SEK 171 bn. C shares trading at a 3.9% discount to NAV, TP for C shares at...