European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PMI is making a recommended cash offer for the Swedish Match at SEK106/share, valuing it at SEK161.2 billion ($16 billion), 39% premium, 17.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 23.1x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>Swedish Match is strategic for PMI and a valuable asset amidst big tobacco diversification drive. Some shareholders make this point to try to extract a higher price.</li>
<li>As of close of 12 May, gross spread is 3.3%, an interesting 8.7% annualised (assuming settlement by 7 October). The risk of not completing the offer seems low.</li>
</ul>


PMI is making a recommended cash offer for the Swedish Match at SEK106/share, valuing it at SEK161.2 billion ($16 billion), 39% premium, 17.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 23.1x Fwd P/E.
Swedish Match is strategic for PMI and a valuable asset amidst big tobacco diversification drive. Some shareholders make this point to try to extract a higher price.
As of close of 12 May, gross spread is 3.3%, an interesting 8.7% annualised (assuming settlement by 7 October). The risk of not completing the offer seems low.


Swedish Match Set Alight by Philip Morris

Sweden

Swedish Match develops, manufactures, and sells smokefree products, including snus, nicotine pouches, and moist snuff, as well as cigars, matches, and lighters. The company focuses on niche tobacco products and other related items. It is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, and was founded in 1915.

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Swedish Match (SWMA SS)

Swedish Match Set Alight by Philip Morris

Although the offer price seems fair, SWMA is a strategic acquisition for PMI, which could hike the offer price if challenged by a counteroffer or...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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