European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Philip Morris/Swedish Match: Trading Tight to Terms

Philip Morris/​Swedish Match: The Case for an Offer Sweetening

Philip Morris Outbids Carlyle in Healthcare Push

Carlyle/Vectura Group: Expectations of a Sweetened Bid

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>PMI is making a recommended cash offer for the Swedish Match at SEK106/share, valuing it at SEK161.2 billion ($16 billion), 39% premium, 17.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 23.1x Fwd P/E.</li>
<li>Swedish Match is strategic for PMI and a valuable asset amidst big tobacco diversification drive. Some shareholders make this point to try to extract a higher price.</li>
<li>As of close of 12 May, gross spread is 3.3%, an interesting 8.7% annualised (assuming settlement by 7 October). The risk of not completing the offer seems low.</li>
</ul>


PMI is making a recommended cash offer for the Swedish Match at SEK106/share, valuing it at SEK161.2 billion ($16 billion), 39% premium, 17.5x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 23.1x Fwd P/E.
Swedish Match is strategic for PMI and a valuable asset amidst big tobacco diversification drive. Some shareholders make this point to try to extract a higher price.
As of close of 12 May, gross spread is 3.3%, an interesting 8.7% annualised (assuming settlement by 7 October). The risk of not completing the offer seems low.


Swedish Match Set Alight by Philip Morris