European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Philip Morris/​Swedish Match: The Case for an Offer Sweetening

Swedish Match Set Alight by Philip Morris

Philip Morris Outbids Carlyle in Healthcare Push

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since Bloomberg reported that Elliot is amassing a stake, the shares have traded tight to terms, even rebasing the offer price. Uncertainty is growing around the deal.</li>
<li>The squeeze-out threshold is 90%, and reaching it seems increasingly difficult, in spite of a generous premium. Philip Morris could lower the acceptance threshold and/or extend the offer period.</li>
<li>My DCF valuation is SEK 113.17, potentially a 13% upside, although it would be difficult to twist Philip Morris's arm. I'd still be long just under the offer price.</li>
</ul>


Since Bloomberg reported that Elliot is amassing a stake, the shares have traded tight to terms, even rebasing the offer price. Uncertainty is growing around the deal.
The squeeze-out threshold is 90%, and reaching it seems increasingly difficult, in spite of a generous premium. Philip Morris could lower the acceptance threshold and/or extend the offer period.
My DCF valuation is SEK 113.17, potentially a 13% upside, although it would be difficult to twist Philip Morris's arm. I'd still be long just under the offer price.


Philip Morris/Swedish Match: Trading Tight to Terms