Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in our 1/24/20 and 1/30/20 Int’l Compass reports: we continue to believe this is a bull market until proven otherwise, and a “buy the dip” strategy remains warranted. In our February International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our bullish outlook, and offer several attractive opportunities we are seeing in the global health care and technology sectors..

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI EAFE have been able to stabilize from a price perspective in recent weeks despite relative strength weakness vs. MSCI ACWI.  In today’s report we scour the globe for attractive investments, ex-U.S., in an environment where selectivity is key.  

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (Sobi), a pharmaceutical company specializing in the treatment of rare diseases, presented its Q1 2025 results.</li>
<li>The financial metrics and qualitative insights from the earnings call offer a nuanced view of the company's operations and strategic direction.</li>
<li>The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated a mixed performance for Sobi.</li>
</ul>


Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (Sobi), a pharmaceutical company specializing in the treatment of rare diseases, presented its Q1 2025 results.
The financial metrics and qualitative insights from the earnings call offer a nuanced view of the company's operations and strategic direction.
The first quarter of 2025 demonstrated a mixed performance for Sobi.


Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB: Strategic Launches

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB / Event-Driven

A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swedish-orphan-biovitrum-ab" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22487:1" rel="noopener">Swedish Orphan Biovitrum Ab (SOBI SS)</a> takeover had been rumoured for years. In 2015, SOBI ended talks on a possible offer after reports that Biogen and Pfizer were among interested parties.
On 1 September, Advent International Corporation and GIC Special Investments Pte. Ltd. <a href="https://agnafit-offer.com/app/uploads/2021/09/Offer-announcement-press-release.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">made an offer</a> to acquire SOBI for SEK 69.4 bn, or SEK 235/share. The deal, once completed, could be the largest-ever LBO in Sweden and the largest LBO of a European healthcare company in five years.
The biding consortium is interested in SOBI’s product portfolio and focus on rare diseases.
There are irrevocable undertakings, 43.41% in aggregate, from Investor AB (36.45%) and Fjärde AP-Fonden (6.96%).  However, their agreement would lapse if another bid comes in at SEK 251/share and is recommended by the Board.
There is a minimum acceptance condition of 90% plus one share (necessary to initiate a compulsory acquisition procedure in respect of the remaining shares in the Company under the Swedish Companies Act). This means that the bidding consortium needs acceptances from 82.3% of the float, which although quite high, is achievable. It must be noted that the five largest holders own 58.65% of the share capital, whilst the 100 largest shareholders own 88.7% of the share capital.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/investor-ab-c8e86ae3-ba55-41f0-9edf-fd461533b72b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24796:1" rel="noopener">Investor AB (INVEA SS)</a> does not seem overly excited by the offer, unless a competing bid comes north of SEK 251/share.
<div>
SOBI has been consistently trading above the offer price. The shares closed at SEK 242 on 10 September, c. 3% above the offer price.
The offer values SOBI at 15.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA, vs. a median multiple of 30x for takeovers of biotech firms announced over the past year, according to Bloomberg, and a median of 20x for takeovers carried out since 2010, according to data compiled by S&amp;P Market Intelligence.
Median implied valuation across multiples (both LTM and NTM) of SOBI is SEK 246.71/share, c. 5% above the offer price, and just 1.7% below the threshold at which the irrevocable undertakings would cease to apply.
On this basis, I believe that the offer from the bidding consortium may be sweetened; the market thinks alike. Recommendation is long SOBI SS, TP SEK 246.7. Further upside could come from a competing bid.
</div>

A Swedish Orphan Biovitrum Ab (SOBI SS) takeover had been rumoured for years. In 2015, SOBI ended talks on a possible offer after reports that Biogen and Pfizer were among interested parties.
On 1 September, Advent International Corporation and GIC Special Investments Pte. Ltd. made an offer to acquire SOBI for SEK 69.4 bn, or SEK 235/share. The deal, once completed, could be the largest-ever LBO in Sweden and the largest LBO of a European healthcare company in five years.
The biding consortium is interested in SOBI’s product portfolio and focus on rare diseases.
There are irrevocable undertakings, 43.41% in aggregate, from Investor AB (36.45%) and Fjärde AP-Fonden (6.96%).  However, their agreement would lapse if another bid comes in at SEK 251/share and is recommended by the Board.
There is a minimum acceptance condition of 90% plus one share (necessary to initiate a compulsory acquisition procedure in respect of the remaining shares in the Company under the Swedish Companies Act). This means that the bidding consortium needs acceptances from 82.3% of the float, which although quite high, is achievable. It must be noted that the five largest holders own 58.65% of the share capital, whilst the 100 largest shareholders own 88.7% of the share capital.
Investor AB (INVEA SS) does not seem overly excited by the offer, unless a competing bid comes north of SEK 251/share.

SOBI has been consistently trading above the offer price. The shares closed at SEK 242 on 10 September, c. 3% above the offer price.
The offer values SOBI at 15.6x EV/Fwd EBITDA, vs. a median multiple of 30x for takeovers of biotech firms announced over the past year, according to Bloomberg, and a median of 20x for takeovers carried out since 2010, according to data compiled by S&amp;P Market Intelligence.
Median implied valuation across multiples (both LTM and NTM) of SOBI is SEK 246.71/share, c. 5% above the offer price, and just 1.7% below the threshold at which the irrevocable undertakings would cease to apply.
On this basis, I believe that the offer from the bidding consortium may be sweetened; the market thinks alike. Recommendation is long SOBI SS, TP SEK 246.7. Further upside could come from a competing bid.


Advent & GIC/SOBI: Awaiting a Sweetened Offer

Sweden

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (SOBI) operates as a bio-pharmaceutical and bio-technology company. The Company develops therapies and drugs for the treatment of haemophilia, inflammation, and genetic diseases. SOBI serves clients worldwide.

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Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (SOBI SS)

Global Equity Strategy: Buy the Dips

Despite recent weakness across global markets, our weight of the evidence approach continues to lead us to the same conclusions as we posited in...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Where to Hide Outside the U.S.

The U.S. has continued to separate itself from broad emerging market and developed international indexes. One positive is that MSCI EM and MSCI...

Vermilion Research

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB: Strategic Launches

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB (Sobi), a pharmaceutical company specializing in the treatment of rare diseases, presented its Q1 2025 results.

Baptista Research

Advent & GIC/SOBI: Awaiting a Sweetened Offer

Median implied valuation across multiples is SEK 246.71/share, c. 5% above offer price. I believe that the offer from the bidding consortium may be...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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