Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/havells-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9158:1" rel="noopener">Havells India (HAVL IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symphony-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17047:1" rel="noopener">Symphony Ltd (SYML IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crompton-greaves-consumer-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24046:1" rel="noopener">Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ttk-prestige-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9779:1" rel="noopener">TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-electricals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9615:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Electricals (BJE IN)</a> 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Demand Environment &amp; Business Performance,  Pricing, Volume and Margins, Market Shares, E-Commerce Business, Inventory and Outlook.

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Havells India (HAVL IN) / Symphony Ltd (SYML IN) / Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN) / TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN) / Bajaj Electricals (BJE IN) 
We have separated the quotes to highlight Demand Environment &amp; Business Performance,  Pricing, Volume and Margins, Market Shares, E-Commerce Business, Inventory and Outlook. 

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Household Durables - Havells, Symphony, Crompton Cons, TTK, Bajaj

Inspired by <a href="https://thetranscript.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"The Transcript"</a>, We build our very own version of the same called "The Narrative".
The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. 
For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand environment and overall Industry, Consumer behaviour and premiumisation, Commodity costs, Pricing action, new product launches, Capex, PLI, Inventory, Competition and market share, Exports, E-commerce, Competitiveness with China and Future outlook.   
Companies covered include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amber-enterprises-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32202:1" rel="noopener">Amber Enterprises India (AMBER IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bajaj-electricals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9615:1" rel="noopener">Bajaj Electricals (BJE IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crompton-greaves-consumer-electricals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24046:1" rel="noopener">Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/symphony-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17047:1" rel="noopener">Symphony Ltd (SYML IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ttk-prestige-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9779:1" rel="noopener">TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN)</a>

Inspired by "The Transcript", We build our very own version of the same called "The Narrative".
The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns. 
For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand environment and overall Industry, Consumer behaviour and premiumisation, Commodity costs, Pricing action, new product launches, Capex, PLI, Inventory, Competition and market share, Exports, E-commerce, Competitiveness with China and Future outlook.   
Companies covered include Amber Enterprises India (AMBER IN), Bajaj Electricals (BJE IN) , Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN) , Symphony Ltd (SYML IN) , TTK Prestige (TTKPT IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Household Durables - AMBER, BJE, CROMPTON, SYML, TTKPT

Value investor- India mid & small caps

Bhaskar Chakraborty

<ul>
<li>Bank lending to NBFCs has been flat since Oct-18 after rising by ~ Rs 1 tn in the previous 5-month period. Debt mutual fund holdings in NBFCs have declined 20% over Sep-18 to Feb-19. CP issuances by NBFCs have also fallen to a fraction of the size before IL&amp;FS defaulted.</li>
<li>This is percolating through the economy slowing down the flow of overall credit.</li>
<li>2-W channel inventories are nearly twice the normal level for some players</li>
<li>M&amp;HCV production has been cut 20-25% YoY in 4QFY19</li>
<li>Tractor volume growth is likely to be in single digits in FY20</li>
<li>Air conditioner and refrigerators are seeing steep discounting owing to large inventory build-up on delayed summer</li>
<li>FMCG players indicate both rural and urban demand weakness including in the modern retail segment</li>
</ul>


Bank lending to NBFCs has been flat since Oct-18 after rising by ~ Rs 1 tn in the previous 5-month period. Debt mutual fund holdings in NBFCs have declined 20% over Sep-18 to Feb-19. CP issuances by NBFCs have also fallen to a fraction of the size before IL&amp;FS defaulted.
This is percolating through the economy slowing down the flow of overall credit.
2-W channel inventories are nearly twice the normal level for some players
M&amp;HCV production has been cut 20-25% YoY in 4QFY19
Tractor volume growth is likely to be in single digits in FY20
Air conditioner and refrigerators are seeing steep discounting owing to large inventory build-up on delayed summer
FMCG players indicate both rural and urban demand weakness including in the modern retail segment


India Consumption: More Signs of a Widening Slowdown

<ul>
<li>While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments</li>
<li>The pullback in SME/MSME financing has reduced working capital financing in some supply chains. This has impacted stocking in some discretionary items.</li>
<li>A number of players alluded to weakness in discretionary consumption post Diwali owing to the NBFC liquidity squeeze</li>
<li>With supply chains selectively impacted by liquidity tightness and weakness in demand, consumer discretionary players could not pass on input cost increases during the quarter</li>
</ul>


While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments
The pullback in SME/MSME financing has reduced working capital financing in some supply chains. This has impacted stocking in some discretionary items.
A number of players alluded to weakness in discretionary consumption post Diwali owing to the NBFC liquidity squeeze
With supply chains selectively impacted by liquidity tightness and weakness in demand, consumer discretionary players could not pass on input cost increases during the quarter


India Consumer Discretionary: Growth Slowing on NBFC Liquidity Tightness, Demand Softness

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps, EMAlpha

Pankaj Sharma

India - Politics, Industrials, IT and Large Caps

The latest forecast from India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates that the summer season will bring more misery to West and Central India this year. This is important for several sectors including Consumer Durables, FMCG, Milk and Dairy Products, Power Generation Companies and Coal Miners. In stocks, we think that maximum possible benefit could be for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19924" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19924:1">Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/242" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:242:1">Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24046" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24046:1">Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/17047" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17047:1">Symphony Ltd (SYML IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14949" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14949:1">JSW Energy Ltd (JSW IN)</a>.

The latest forecast from India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates that the summer season will bring more misery to West and Central India this year. This is important for several sectors including Consumer Durables, FMCG, Milk and Dairy Products, Power Generation Companies and Coal Miners. In stocks, we think that maximum possible benefit could be for Voltas Ltd (VOLT IN), Dabur India Ltd (DABUR IN),Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals (CROMPTON IN), Symphony Ltd (SYML IN) and JSW Energy Ltd (JSW IN).

India: Summer to Begin Early and Will Be Harsher than Usual - Five Stocks that May Benefit

India

Symphony Limited is an Indian multinational electronics and home appliances company specializing in manufacturing residential, commercial, and industrial air coolers. It is the world's largest manufacturer of air coolers, offering evaporative cooling solutions and other appliances like tower fans. The company is headquartered in Ahmedabad, India, and was established in 1988.

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Symphony (SYML IN)

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India Household Durables - Havells, Symphony, Crompton Cons, TTK, Bajaj

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Havells / Symphony / Crompton Consumer / TTK Prestige / Bajaj Electricals

Pranav Bhavsar

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India Household Durables - AMBER, BJE, CROMPTON, SYML, TTKPT

The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks.

Pranav Bhavsar

India Consumption: More Signs of a Widening Slowdown

Bank lending to NBFCs has been flat since Oct-18 after rising by ~ Rs 1 tn in the previous 5-month period. Debt mutual fund holdings in NBFCs have...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

India Consumer Discretionary: Growth Slowing on NBFC Liquidity Tightness, Demand Softness

While many NBFCs pulled back on disbursements in 3QFY19, the sharpest declines were in SME/MSME, LAP and Loan Against Shares (LAS) segments The...

Bhaskar Chakraborty

India: Summer to Begin Early and Will Be Harsher than Usual - Five Stocks that May Benefit

The latest forecast from India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicates that the summer season will bring more misery to West and Central India...

Pankaj Sharma

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)